Simulation Results: Danish Golf Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Wallin 0.76% 132 101 127
Adri Arnaus 2.06% 49 41 42
Albert Boneta 1.21% 83 46 38
Albin Bergstrom 0.80% 125 101 23
Alejandro Canizares 0.15% 667 501 132
Alex Maguire 0.34% 294 276 112
Alexander Settemsdal 0.05% 2000 1001 119
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.05% 2000 751 127
Anton Albers 0.94% 106 67 42
Aron Zemmer 0.64% 156 201 0.10% 75 -0.1 Vbet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/4
Aydan Verdonk 0.04% 2500 751 154
Aymeric Laussot 0.10% 1000 401 6
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 1.20% 83 67 51
Ben Sigel 0.03% 3333 2001 119
Ben Stow 0.37% 270 501 0.20% 119 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.74% 135 201 0.20% 25 -0.2 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benjamin Kedochim 0.09% 1111 751 86
Benjamin Rusch 2.25% 44 71 0.90% 112 -0.9 Vbet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/4
Borja Virto 1.57% 64 41 64
Bradley Bawden 0.12% 833 501 140
Brandon Kewalramani 0.09% 1111 501 99
Callan Barrow 0.39% 256 126 23
Calum Fyfe 0.53% 189 101 2
Carl Siemens 0.14% 714 251 75
Cedric Gugler 0.40% 250 351 0.10% 51 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chase Hanna 1.24% 81 67 112
Chris Paisley 0.13% 769 501 86
Christian Jacobsen 0.66% 152 101 119
Christofer Blomstrand 0.69% 145 81 4
Christofer Rahm 0.14% 714 1001 70
Christoffer Bring 1.44% 69 61 6
Christopher White 0.00% 10000 1501 152
Clement Charmasson 1.27% 79 101 0.30% 86 -0.3 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Damien Perrier 0.18% 556 501 86
Daniel Mulligan 0.15% 667 501 61
Daniel Young 1.17% 85 81 70
David Borda 0.44% 227 351 0.20% 140 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Law 2.53% 40 23 112
David Lundgren 0.07% 1429 501 6
David Nyfjall 0.38% 263 301 42
Dermot Mcelroy 0.18% 556 501 132
Enrico Di Nitto 0.19% 526 501 99
Euan Walker 2.30% 43 29 13
Felix Mory 1.53% 65 56 86
Filip Mruzek 0.66% 152 101 12
Filippo Celli 2.18% 46 34 64
Fiorino Clerici 0.00% 10000 1501 151
Frank Kennedy 0.09% 1111 501 57
Gabriel Morgan 0.10% 1000 1001 132
Gary King 0.06% 1667 1501 132
George Bloor 1.37% 73 41 75
Graeme Robertson 0.48% 208 276 0.10% 75 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gudmundur Kristjansson 0.41% 244 51
Gunner Wiebe 0.55% 182 251 0.20% 99 -0.2 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Haraldur Magnus 0.37% 270 61
Hayden Hopewell 0.44% 227 151 74
Herman Wibe Sekne 0.59% 169 91 145
Hugo Townsend 0.49% 204 126 17
Hurly Long 1.85% 54 67 0.40% 75 -0.4 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Davidson 1.50% 67 151 0.80% 57 -0.8 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Floydd 0.13% 769 501 148
Jack Madden 0.13% 769 601 112
Jack Mcdonald 1.30% 77 151 0.60% 86 -0.6 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Allan 0.38% 263 176 155
James Ashfield 0.58% 172 67 6
James Morrison 0.41% 244 201 86
Jamie Rutherford 2.58% 39 26 140
Javier Sainz 0.28% 357 151 119
Jens Fahrbring 0.98% 102 101
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.62% 161 151 132
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 1.49% 67 34 86
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.85% 118 176 0.30% 17 -0.3 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jesper Sandborg 0.87% 115 101 73
Jiri Zuska 0.50% 200 176 17
Joachim B. Hansen 0.05% 2000 1001 127
John Axelsen 0.62% 161 126 17
John Gough 0.24% 417 351 75
Jonas Blixt 0.17% 588 151 42
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.35% 286 301 1
Jordan Prutthaweewat 0.01% 10000 751 127
Joshua Berry 1.02% 98 41 86
Julian Perico 0.62% 161 251 0.20% 31 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Sale 0.76% 132 81 5
Justin Harding 1.26% 79 101 0.30% 70 -0.3 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Walters 0.82% 122 81 75
Kasper Nyland 0.18% 556 201 38
Kim Koivu 0.43% 233 151 61
Kristoffer Max 0.04% 2500 401 99
Lars Van Meijel 0.71% 141 101 10
Lauri Ruuska 1.05% 95 71 86
Liam Nolan 0.32% 313 251 3
Lorenzo Scalise 1.27% 79 81 42
Lucas Vacarisas 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 38 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lukas Nemecz 2.29% 44 31 127
Marc Hammer 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 86 -0.1 Vbet: 275/1, 6pl, 1/4
Marc Warren 0.02% 5000 601 25
Mark Power 0.69% 145 101 99
Martin Simonsen 0.61% 164 126 51
Mateusz Gradecki 0.04% 2500 1501 145
Matt Sharpstene 0.03% 3333 1001 38
Matthew Cheung 0.88% 114 101 112
Mauro Gilardi 0.06% 1667 751 99
Max Kennedy 0.64% 156 151 75
Maxence Giboudot 0.54% 185 201 112
Maximilian Schmitt 0.32% 313 251 99
Maximilian Steinlechner 2.01% 50 34 132
Morten Orum Madsen 0.15% 667 276 99
Nathan Legendre 0.05% 2000 601 31
Nick Bachem 0.08% 1250 251 42
Nick Carlson 0.46% 217 501 0.30% 42 -0.3 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicola Gerhardsen 0.03% 3333 601 99
Nicolai Kristensen 0.18% 556 101 57
Nikolas Tyminski 0.00% 10000 2501 148
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 1.82% 55 41 42
Oliver Farr 0.12% 833 251 153
Oliver Gillberg 1.49% 67 51 13
Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 0.26% 385 251 51
Palmer Jackson 0.17% 588 501 69
Pedro Figueiredo 1.90% 53 51 75
Per Langfors 1.72% 58 51 10
Peter Launer Baek 0.31% 323 91 13
Philipp Katich 0.21% 476 151 119
Quim Vidal 1.05% 95 41 132
Renato Paratore 2.68% 37 26 31
Rhys Enoch 0.54% 185 276 0.20% 75 -0.2 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikard Karlberg 0.94% 106 101 25
Robin Petersson 0.54% 185 201 57
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 1.42% 70 56 42
Ronan Kleu 0.33% 303 151 25
Ryan Evans 0.11% 909 501 140
Ryan Lumsden 1.30% 77 81 0.10% 25 -0.1 Unibet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Hutsby 0.59% 169 151
Sam Jones 0.34% 294 101 64
Sam Locke 0.16% 625 501 31
Santiago Tarrio 0.92% 109 101 155
Saptak Talwar 0.40% 250 251 64
Sebastian Eidsaether Syr 0.09% 1111 501 144
Sebastian Friedrichsen 1.03% 97 67 64
Sebastian Petersen 0.30% 333 251 99
Sebastien Gros 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 31 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soren Broholt Lind 0.10% 1000 751 31
Stefano Mazzoli 1.68% 60 41 13
Stuart Manley 0.43% 233 501 0.20% 99 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tiger Christensen 0.58% 172 151 17
Timon Baltl 0.57% 175 176 148
Tobias Jonsson 0.57% 175 101 99
Tomas Bessa 0.03% 3333 501 145
Tomas Gouveia 0.76% 132 101 86
Vasco Alves 0.00% 10000 2501 119
Victor Bjorlow 0.08% 1250 501 99
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.88% 114 56 86
Viktor Nordwall 0.01% 10000 1501 51
Vince Van Veen 0.36% 278 251 25
Will Enefer 0.47% 213 151 119
Will Hopkins 0.55% 182 201 0.10% 132 -0.1 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wouter De Vries 0.00% 10000 251 75

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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