Simulation Results: Danish Golf Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Wallin 1.82% 55 23 3
Albert Boneta 1.11% 90 61 122
Albin Tiden 0.12% 833 251 56
Alex Goff 0.48% 208 101 28
Alexander Knappe 0.35% 286 181 34
Alexander Settemsdal 0.41% 244 151 156
Alfie Plant 1.10% 91 91 141
Algot Kleen 0.71% 141 81 3
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.55% 182 201 0.10% 141 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andoni Etchenique 0.30% 333 276 103
Anton Albers 0.83% 120 67 16
Anton Karlsson 0.92% 109 71 28
Arjun Prasad 0.13% 769 401 130
Aron Zemmer 0.46% 217 101 47
August Thor Host 0.05% 2000 401 71
Aymeric Laussot 0.09% 1111 401 72
Baard Skogen 0.87% 115 81 34
Bailey Gill 0.09% 1111 751 47
Barclay Brown 0.34% 294 101 60
Bastien Amat 0.40% 250 181 16
Benjamin Rusch 0.30% 333 201 56
Bjorn Akesson 0.96% 104 91 28
Borja Virto 0.91% 110 101 40
Bryce Easton 2.21% 45 34 103
Callan Barrow 0.52% 192 201 81
Callum Farr 0.55% 182 81 72
Calum Fyfe 2.15% 47 29 91
Carl Hellat 0.00% 10000 1501 72
Charles Huntzinger 0.86% 116 201 0.40% 60 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Thornton 0.04% 2500 751 91
Chase Hanna 0.49% 204 126 40
Chris Wood 1.42% 70 51 20
Christian Braunig 0.02% 5000 401 130
Christian Jacobsen 0.17% 588 301 20
Christofer Blomstrand 1.59% 63 51 81
Christofer Rahm 0.20% 500 251 150
Christoffer Bring 0.06% 1667 426 130
Christoph Bleier 0.19% 526 251 122
Clay Seeber 0.01% 10000 1001 91
Clement Guichard 0.12% 833 351 28
Clement Sordet 2.47% 40 34 8
Conor Purcell 0.45% 222 81 141
Corey Shaun 0.20% 500 351 60
Dan Erickson 0.67% 149 161 81
Daniel Gale 0.77% 130 101 72
David Horsey 2.13% 47 34 34
David Langley 0.22% 455 201
David Lundgren 0.44% 227 161 72
David Nyfjall 0.90% 111 71 47
Dermot Mcelroy 0.10% 1000 401 56
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.28% 357 103
Fabius Will Bradhering 0.03% 3333 501 137
Frederik Eisenbeis 0.07% 1429 401 66
Gary Hurley 2.16% 46 51 0.20% 91 -0.2 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
George Bloor 0.53% 189 181 66
Graeme Robertson 0.20% 500 251 155
Gregor Graham 0.77% 130 91 47
Hamish Brown 4.60% 22 19 66
Haraldur Magnus 0.92% 109 251 0.50% 60 -0.5 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hayden Hopewell 0.08% 1250 201 103
Haydn Barron 0.93% 108 56 8
Hurly Long 0.54% 185 161 130
Jack Floydd 0.14% 714 351 81
Jacob Worm Agerschou 0.45% 222 126 81
Jacobo Campos Garcia 0.00% 10000 801 91
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 0.55% 182 126 81
James Allan 0.25% 400 181 141
James Sugrue 0.16% 625 351 151
Jamie Rutherford 1.40% 71 56 72
Jan Schneider 0.36% 278 201 20
Jannik De Bruyn 1.74% 57 34 40
Javier Barcos Garbayo 0.11% 909 401 8
Javier Calles Roman 0.24% 417 251 55
Jean Bekirian 0.32% 313 126 34
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 0.71% 141 67 12
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.51% 196 161 151
Jerry Ji 0.09% 1111 401 72
Jhared Hack 2.78% 36 51 0.80% 103 -0.8 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jiri Zuska 0.33% 303 201 103
Joel Moscatel 1.43% 70 81 0.20% 47 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Axelsen 0.19% 526 201 81
John Gough 0.44% 227 201 122
John Murphy 0.44% 227 226 34
John-Ross Galbraith 0.06% 1667 501 34
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.42% 238 151 12
Joseba Torres 0.61% 164 301 0.30% 40 -0.3 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joseph Pagdin 0.34% 294 226 81
Juan Salama 0.16% 625 401 3
Julien Quesne 0.39% 256 226 130
Kristian Hjort Bressum 0.01% 10000 501 91
Kristian Krogh Johannessen 1.00% 100 41 28
Lars Van Der Vight 0.51% 196 181 12
Lauri Ruuska 0.48% 208 81 103
Liam Johnston 0.13% 769 201 91
Liam Nolan 0.63% 159 126 6
Linus Lang 0.09% 1111 401 153
Logan Perkins 1.72% 58 201 1.20% 122 -1.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Loic Naas 0.00% 10000 751 70
Lucas Vacarisas 0.23% 435 201 91
M.J. Viljoen 0.62% 161 126 130
Mads Heller 0.13% 769 126 103
Marc Warren 0.67% 149 151 12
Mark Power 0.53% 189 101 47
Martin Eriksson 0.14% 714 151 103
Martin Simonsen 1.81% 55 36 6
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon 0.47% 213 181 20
Matt Gilchrest 0.02% 5000 401 130
Matteo Cristoni 0.65% 154 161 20
Matthew Southgate 2.18% 46 56 0.40% 81 -0.4 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Max Kennedy 0.82% 122 81 64
Maxence Giboudot 1.37% 73 67 2
Maxwell Martin 0.06% 1667 751 72
Michael Hirmer 0.32% 313 201 47
Michal Bargenda 0.00% 10000 1251 141
Nick Bachem 0.34% 294 201 103
Nick Carlson 1.09% 92 91 28
Oliver Gillberg 0.51% 196 101 103
Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 0.15% 667 351 91
Ollie Jacobsson 0.06% 1667 501 103
Pablo Ereno Perez 2.62% 38 29 20
Palmer Jackson 0.17% 588 251 47
Pedro Figueiredo 1.81% 55 41 16
Pedro Lencart Silva 0.10% 1000 501 81
Per Langfors 1.40% 71 46 103
Philipp Katich 0.09% 1111 251 103
Pierre Pineau 0.71% 141 201 0.20% 122 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quinnton Croker 0.26% 385 126 103
Ralf Johan Kivi 0.06% 1667 801 148
Rasmus Holmberg 0.04% 2500 601 153
Robert Foley 0.05% 2000 501 64
Robin Petersson 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 137 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ronan Mullarney 0.35% 286 201 91
Rory Franssen 0.08% 1250 501 91
Ryan Van Velzen 1.71% 58 51 16
Sam Hutsby 1.36% 74 101 0.40% 40 -0.4 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Jones 0.62% 161 101 56
Saptak Talwar 0.59% 169 161 40
Sebastian Friedrichsen 1.69% 59 41 122
Sebastien Gros 0.09% 1111 301 148
Soren Broholt Lind 0.17% 588 476 103
Steven Brown 0.28% 357 251 122
Tapio Pulkkanen 2.50% 40 31 1
Tiger Christensen 0.38% 263 126 103
Tobias Eden 0.80% 125 131 20
Tom Lewis 1.10% 91 56 8
Tomas Bessa 0.33% 303 276 72
Tomas Gouveia 0.74% 135 161 0.10% 103 -0.1 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Varun Chopra 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 91 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Victor Bjorlow 0.08% 1250 401 122
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.46% 217 181 137
Wil Besseling 0.59% 169 161 40
Wilco Nienaber 1.32% 76 46 20
Will Hopkins 0.41% 244 251 141
Will Porter 0.56% 179 81 66
William Vold 0.00% 10000 1001 103
Wouter De Vries 0.74% 135 151 0.10% 141 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

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