Simulation Results: Czech Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 0.97% 103 81 20
Albert Boneta 1.71% 58 51 6
Albert Eckhardt 0.01% 10000 1501 111
Albin Bergstrom 0.91% 110 91 47
Andrew Garner 0.00% 10000 4001 151
Aron Zemmer 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 52 -0.1 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aymeric Laussot 0.21% 476 501 98
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 1.93% 52 46 31
Bastien Amat 0.21% 476 301 12
Ben Sigel 0.16% 625 751 71
Ben Stow 0.58% 172 101 25
Benjamin Follett-Smith 1.03% 97 101 57
Bradley Bawden 0.14% 714 751 31
Brandon Kewalramani 0.20% 500 501 57
Bryce Easton 1.72% 58 76 0.40% 98 -0.4 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Callan Barrow 0.48% 208 126 42
Calum Fyfe 1.39% 72 51 146
Carl Siemens 0.05% 2000 501 63
Cedric Gugler 0.20% 500 501 52
Chase Hanna 0.38% 263 301 98
Chris Paisley 0.23% 435 501 39
Christian Jacobsen 0.67% 149 91 42
Christofer Blomstrand 0.62% 161 131 121
Christofer Rahm 0.24% 417 501 121
Christoffer Bring 1.89% 53 34 74
Christopher White 0.00% 10000 4001 139
Clement Charmasson 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 31 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Daan Huizing 1.04% 96 76 135
Damien Perrier 0.16% 625 601 12
Daniel Mulligan 0.02% 5000 2001 153
Daniel Rodrigues 0.13% 769 401 121
Danny List 0.90% 111 67 6
David Law 2.66% 38 26 1
David Lundgren 0.17% 588 276 121
Denwit David Boriboonsub 0.37% 270 161 20
Dermot Mcelroy 0.16% 625 501 47
Enrico Di Nitto 0.08% 1250 1001 135
Erik Jansson 0.01% 10000 1001
Euan Walker 2.49% 40 34 31
Felix Mory 1.44% 69 51 20
Filip Lukas 0.00% 10000 4001 155
Filip Mruzek 1.37% 73 34 20
Filippo Celli 1.35% 74 29 88
Gabriel Morgan 0.15% 667 751 98
George Bloor 0.69% 145 71 130
Graeme Robertson 0.40% 250 251 111
Gregor Graham 0.42% 238 151 59
Gunner Wiebe 0.16% 625 501 130
Gustav Fransson 0.12% 833 601 111
Hugo Townsend 1.67% 60 51 111
Hurly Long 0.78% 128 126 111
J.C. Ritchie 3.12% 32 29 111
Jack Davidson 0.78% 128 91 88
Jack Floydd 0.05% 2000 1501 2
Jack Madden 0.07% 1429 1001 151
James Allan 0.99% 101 126 0.20% 98 -0.2 Unibet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Meyer De Beco 0.16% 625 501 88
James Morrison 0.69% 145 101 42
Jamie Rutherford 0.94% 106 67 57
Jan Cafourek 0.02% 5000 1501 98
Jean Bekirian 0.36% 278 91 12
Jens Fahrbring 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 88 -0.1 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.25% 400 451 74
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 0.59% 169 56 144
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.60% 167 126 39
Jesper Sandborg 0.28% 357 276 72
Jiri Zuska 0.24% 417 201 8
Joachim B. Hansen 0.01% 10000 2001 74
John Axelsen 1.42% 70 41 121
John Gough 0.40% 250 67 52
John Murphy 0.02% 5000 1001 88
Jonas Blixt 0.16% 625 401 74
Jonathan Caldwell 0.19% 526 401 74
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.07% 93 67 31
Joshua Berry 1.02% 98 36 8
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.18% 556 501 111
Jovan Rebula 1.44% 69 56 135
Julian Perico 1.12% 89 101 0.10% 74 -0.1 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Sale 1.31% 76 67 74
Keanu Akina 0.01% 10000 1001 130
Kiet Van Der Weele 0.01% 10000 2001 121
Kyle Barker 0.09% 1111 751 31
Lars Van Der Vight 0.15% 667 201 57
Lars Van Meijel 1.00% 100 67 31
Lauri Ruuska 0.20% 500 401 98
Lee Slattery 0.24% 417 501 70
Liam Nolan 0.74% 135 101 121
Lorenzo Scalise 1.07% 93 76 74
Luca Cianchetti 0.05% 2000 2001 25
Lucas Vacarisas 1.30% 77 76 121
Lukas Nemecz 2.70% 37 31 25
Luke Woods 0.00% 10000 2001 74
Martin Obtmeier 0.01% 10000 1001 88
Martin Simonsen 0.83% 120 141 0.10% 20 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mateusz Gradecki 0.03% 3333 1501 146
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon 0.33% 303 201 8
Matt Sharpstene 0.14% 714 501 98
Matthis Besard 1.31% 76 61 74
Matus Cedzo 0.00% 10000 4001 98
Matyas Zapletal 0.00% 10000 3001 139
Max Kennedy 1.79% 56 46 12
Maxence Giboudot 1.10% 91 51 42
Maximilian Jelinek 0.03% 3333 1251 57
Maximilian Schmitt 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 111 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Steinlechner 2.24% 45 23 2
Michele Ortolani 0.64% 156 176 0.10% 31 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nathan Legendre 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 98 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicholas Infanti 0.09% 1111 1001 25
Nick Carlson 2.34% 43 56 0.60% 12 -0.6 Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicola Gerhardsen 0.02% 5000 1501 111
Nicolai Kristensen 0.42% 238 201 47
Niklas Regner 0.13% 769 1001 63
Oliver Csanyi 0.00% 10000 4001 149
Oliver Jacobsson 0.08% 1250 751 139
Oliver Wilson 0.68% 147 141 42
Palmer Jackson 0.78% 128 81 39
Pedro Figueiredo 1.15% 87 71 63
Pedro Lencart 0.02% 5000 1501 25
Philipp Katich 0.28% 357 161 130
Philipp Macionga 0.01% 10000 2001 88
Piers Berrington 0.02% 5000 1501 74
Quim Vidal 0.78% 128 71 69
Renato Paratore 1.98% 51 34 8
Rhys Enoch 0.37% 270 201 130
Robin Petersson 1.07% 93 81 63
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 2.30% 43 26 88
Rocco Repetto 1.54% 65 51 12
Ronan Kleu 0.25% 400 401 98
Rupert Kaminski 0.11% 909 751 111
Ryan Lumsden 0.84% 119 61 2
Sam Jones 0.85% 118 67 52
Sam Locke 0.07% 1429 1001 74
Sebastian Friedrichsen 1.14% 88 71 98
Sebastian Garcia 0.86% 116 111 74
Sebastien Gros 0.22% 455 501 88
Simon Zach 0.01% 10000 1001 149
Soren Broholt Lind 0.07% 1429 2001 139
Stefano Mazzoli 2.38% 42 41 52
Stuart Manley 0.60% 167 226 0.20% 57 -0.2 QuinnBet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tiger Christensen 0.63% 159 101 12
Timon Baltl 0.22% 455 601 0.10% 25 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tobias Jonsson 1.94% 52 41 12
Tom Bevington 0.00% 10000 4001 153
Tom Lewis 1.31% 76 76 146
Tomas Gouveia 0.69% 145 126 88
Tyko Tuohimaa 0.00% 10000 4001 121
Velten Meyer 0.22% 455 501 135
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.49% 204 176 2
Victor Pastor 0.29% 345 401 63
Vince Van Veen 0.29% 345 226 68
Wilco Nienaber 1.77% 56 41 98
Will Enefer 1.07% 93 81 47
Will Hopkins 0.22% 455 276 47
Will Nimmo 0.00% 10000 4001 144
Wouter De Vries 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 74 -0.1 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 501 139

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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