Simulation Results: Challenge de Catalunya

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Wallin	1.06%	94	36		6
Albert Boneta	1.00%	100	71		62
Alejandro Aguilera	0.02%	5000	1501		108
Alessandro Nodari	0.17%	588	251		119
Alex Esmatges	0.01%	10000	601		147
Alex Goff	0.34%	294	91		93
Alexander Knappe	0.44%	227	201		108
Alfie Plant	1.10%	91	81		79
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	1.72%	58	56		62
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.33%	303	226		108
Andres Gallegos	0.63%	159	151		61
Andrew Wilson	2.68%	37	26		79
Anton Albers	0.43%	233	81		34
Antonio Hortal	0.01%	10000	301		152
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.06%	1667	501		131
Baard Skogen	0.67%	149	71		62
Bailey Gill	0.02%	5000	1001		43
Barclay Brown	0.26%	385	201		43
Bastien Amat	0.16%	625	251		43
Benjamin Hebert	1.01%	99	71		119
Benjamin Rusch	0.49%	204	201		119
Bjorn Akesson	0.81%	123	111		51
Borja Virto	0.61%	164	91		93
Bryce Easton	1.29%	78	71		6
Callan Barrow	0.37%	270	251		79
Callum Tarren	1.42%	70	56		119
Calum Fyfe	1.50%	67	34		14
Canon Claycomb	0.23%	435	251		12
Carlos Pigem	0.25%	400	351		15
Charles Huntzinger	0.84%	119	226	0.40%	62	-0.4	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Forster	0.69%	145	81		15
Chris Wood	1.46%	68	41		102
Christofer Blomstrand	0.89%	112	71		27
Christofer Rahm	0.17%	588	251		108
Clement Sordet	1.19%	84	56		9
Collin Adams	0.18%	556	451		102
Conor Gough	0.03%	3333	1001		119
Conor Purcell	0.34%	294	111		108
Corey Shaun	0.08%	1250	351		79
Daan Huizing	0.27%	370	251		51
Dan Erickson	0.63%	159	176	0.10%	60	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Gale	0.87%	115	176	0.30%	62	-0.3	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Danny List	0.43%	233	201
David Horsey	1.94%	52	34		62
Deon Germishuys	1.32%	76	51		142
Dominic Clemons	0.01%	10000	1001		151
Eduard Rousaud	0.07%	1429	301		43
Fabrizio Zanotti	1.90%	53	56	0.10%	51	-0.1	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Filip Mruzek	0.25%	400	251		21
Frank Kennedy	0.29%	345	401		3
Gary Hurley	0.71%	141	151		3
Gavin Green	0.24%	417	176		137
George Bloor	0.23%	435	226		62
Gordan Brixi	0.01%	10000	2001		131
Gregor Graham	0.81%	123	91		102
Hamish Brown	2.51%	40	29		2
Haraldur Magnus	0.60%	167	201	0.10%	79	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Henric Sturehed	0.15%	667	501		62
Hunter Logan	0.14%	714	251		102
Hurly Long	0.52%	192	151		79
Jack Buchanan	0.68%	147			79
Jack Floydd	0.12%	833	401		119
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.12%	833	501		6
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.42%	238	91		93
James Meyer De Beco	0.81%	123	126		62
James Sugrue	0.24%	417	401		119
Jamie Rutherford	0.89%	112	71		27
Jan Schneider	0.44%	227	176		137
Jannik De Bruyn	1.74%	57	41		37
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.09%	1111	401		108
Javier Calles Roman	0.29%	345	201		137
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	0.94%	106	67		108
Jeremy Freiburghaus	0.42%	238	151		79
Jhared Hack	2.34%	43	81	1.10%	9	-1.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jiri Zuska	0.17%	588	251		51
Joel Moscatel	0.60%	167	151		21
John Gough	0.35%	286	176		108
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.23%	435	201		62
Jordan Wrisdale	0.36%	278	201		93
Joseba Torres	0.21%	476	401		43
Josep Maria Serra Busquet	0.01%	10000	601		147
Joseph Pagdin	0.21%	476	301		62
Jovan Rebula	0.70%	143	141		93
Juan Salama	0.09%	1111	501		62
Julian Perico	1.42%	70	51		145
Julien Brun	1.01%	99	71		27
Julien Quesne	0.34%	294	151		131
Julien Sale	1.52%	66	61		51
Kim Koivu	0.12%	833	351		51
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.01%	10000			150
Lars Van Meijel	0.38%	263	81		27
Lauri Ruuska	0.32%	313	201		27
Liam Nolan	0.29%	345	251		34
Linus Lang	0.03%	3333	751		37
Logan Perkins	0.05%	2000	401		15
Lorenzo Scalise	0.92%	109	71		43
Lucas Vacarisas	0.61%	164	126		153
Luis Masaveu	3.11%	32	23		21
Lukas Nemecz	1.51%	66	41		119
M.J. Daffue	2.46%	41	34		3
M.J. Viljoen	0.53%	189	126		59
Marc Warren	0.85%	118	101		131
Marcel Fonseca	0.00%	10000	751		131
Mark Power	0.46%	217	86		79
Matteo Cristoni	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	43	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Southgate	1.26%	79	126	0.50%	21	-0.5	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthias Schwab	0.23%	435	201		102
Matthis Besard	1.18%	85	41		119
Mattias Varjun	0.00%	10000	1001		62
Max Kennedy	0.52%	192	101		37
Maxence Giboudot	1.09%	92	67		27
Maximilian Kieffer	1.16%	86	61		93
Maxwell Martin	0.04%	2500	601		119
Nick Bachem	0.15%	667	501		37
Nick Carlson	1.08%	93	86		79
Nikolas Tyminski	0.00%	10000	2501		142
Oliver Gillberg	0.64%	156	91		108
Ollie Jacobsson	0.06%	1667	601		142
Pablo Ereno Perez	1.51%	66	41		1
Palmer Jackson	0.19%	526	226		137
Pedro Figueiredo	1.86%	54	29		93
Per Langfors	0.95%	105	61		15
Pierre Pineau	0.36%	278	201		62
Ralf Johan Kivi	0.00%	10000	751		108
Robert Foley	0.03%	3333	751		131
Robin Petersson	0.48%	208	176		62
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.65%	154	151		119
Robin Williams	0.69%	145	91		15
Ronan Kleu	0.64%	156	151		15
Rory Franssen	0.02%	5000	751		93
Ryan Lumsden	0.56%	179	151		119
Ryan Van Velzen	1.23%	81	71		21
Sam Hutsby	0.42%	238	251		34
Sam Jones	0.19%	526	201		21
Santiago Tarrio	0.91%	110	61		147
Saptak Talwar	1.13%	88	151	0.50%	154	-0.5	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.18%	85	41		37
Steven Brown	0.17%	588	226		102
Tadeas Tetak	0.33%	303	226		51
Tapio Pulkkanen	2.16%	46	34		51
Tobias Eden	0.20%	500	351		12
Tomas Bessa	0.09%	1111			62
Tomas Gouveia	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	108	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyko Tuohimaa	0.00%	10000	2501		145
Varun Chopra	0.21%	476	401		79
Vasco Alves	0.01%	10000	1501		137
Veer Ahlawat	0.90%	111	111		62
Victor Bjorlow	0.04%	2500	401		79
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.30%	333	226		37
Victor Pastor	0.46%	217	176		155
Wilco Nienaber	1.19%	84	34		93
Will Enefer	2.23%	45	29		9
Will Hopkins	0.21%	476	401		43
Will Porter	0.34%	294	201		27
Wouter De Vries	0.63%	159	151		79
Yannik Paul	1.34%	75	61		79

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jhared Hack	2.34%	43	81	1.10%	9	-2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Matthew Southgate	1.26%	79	126	0.50%	21	-2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Saptak Talwar	1.13%	88	151	0.50%	154	-2	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.