Simulation Results: Challenge de Cadiz

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.85% 54 29 49
Ahmad Skaik 0.00% 10000 2501 148
Albin Bergstrom 0.90% 111 71 39
Alejandro Aguilera 0.07% 1429 251 103
Alejandro Canizares 0.05% 2000 601 103
Alexander Korioth 0.00% 10000 2001 142
Alexander Settemsdal 0.03% 3333 1501 123
Alvaro Hernandez Cabezuela 0.11% 909 226 88
Alvaro Quiros 0.27% 370 251 131
Anton Albers 0.78% 128 81 32
Aron Zemmer 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 88 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Asier Aguirre Izcue 0.12% 833 301 19
Aymeric Laussot 0.42% 238 126 39
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.97% 103 71 10
Ben Sigel 0.03% 3333 2501 131
Benjamin Kedochim 0.08% 1250 1001 123
Benjamin Rusch 1.21% 83 101 0.20% 14 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Borja Virto 1.26% 79 51 74
Bradley Bawden 0.06% 1667 1001 74
Brandon Kewalramani 0.07% 1429 1001 74
Callan Barrow 0.56% 179 81 116
Calum Fyfe 1.21% 83 51 131
Carlos Pigem 0.34% 294 201 5
Cedric Gugler 0.39% 256 276 67
Chase Hanna 1.15% 87 111 0.30% 123 -0.3 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chris Paisley 0.13% 769 751 74
Christian Jacobsen 0.37% 270 161 14
Christofer Blomstrand 1.82% 55 29 32
Christofer Rahm 0.23% 435 601 0.10% 67 -0.1 Paddy Power: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christoffer Bring 2.03% 49 34 19
Clement Charmasson 1.00% 100 201 0.50% 13 -0.5 Paddy Power: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Craig Howie 0.40% 250 101 146
Daan Huizing 1.91% 52 61 0.30% 74 -0.3 Unibet: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Damien Perrier 0.15% 667 751 116
Daniel Rodrigues 0.20% 500 141 103
Daniel Young 0.91% 110 101 14
David Borda 0.22% 455 501 32
David Horsey 1.53% 65 56 123
David Law 1.97% 51 41 7
Dermot Mcelroy 0.16% 625 751 3
Eduard Rousaud 0.11% 909 276 32
Emilio Hernandez Lirola 0.00% 10000 1001 103
Enrico Di Nitto 0.11% 909 601 74
Enrique Dimayuga 0.00% 10000 176 56
Euan Walker 2.60% 38 21 32
Felix Mory 1.43% 70 51 103
Filippo Celli 2.14% 47 29 155
Frank Kennedy 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 142 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gabriel Morgan 0.04% 2500 2001 146
Gary King 0.02% 5000 1251 88
George Bloor 0.89% 112 71 103
Gonzalo Leal 0.00% 10000 751 131
Graeme Robertson 0.41% 244 1001 0.30% 59 -0.3 Paddy Power: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gunner Wiebe 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 116 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Hopewell 0.23% 435 201 88
Herman Wibe Sekne 0.34% 294 141 131
Hugo Townsend 0.69% 145 91 3
Hurly Long 2.33% 43 51 0.40% 131 -0.4 Betway: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.C. Ritchie 3.92% 26 26 0.10% 24 -0.1 Spreadex: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Davidson 1.22% 82 101 0.20% 32 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Floydd 0.04% 2500 751 74
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 0.29% 345 131 74
James Allan 0.11% 909 226 116
James Ashfield 1.21% 83 61 88
James Meyer De Beco 0.35% 286 201 74
James Morrison 0.38% 263 276 24
Jamie Rutherford 2.03% 49 36 49
Javier Barcos Garbayo 0.09% 1111 226 49
Javier Sainz 0.16% 625 201 74
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.23% 435 176 66
Jeremy Freiburghaus 1.58% 63 56 74
Jesper Sandborg 0.45% 222 126 43
Jiri Zuska 0.62% 161 126 61
Joachim B. Hansen 0.02% 5000 1501 149
John Axelsen 0.97% 103 81 58
John Gough 0.18% 556 501 63
Jonas Blixt 0.45% 222 201 74
Jonathan Caldwell 0.58% 172 126 131
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.93% 52 41 43
Jose Antonio Sintes Navarro 0.00% 10000 601 149
Joseba Torres 1.16% 86 151 0.50% 59 -0.5 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry 0.66% 152 51 88
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.15% 667 501 14
Juan Salama 0.00% 10000 751 131
Julian Perico 0.69% 145 126 43
Julien Sale 2.18% 46 31 24
Justin Walters 0.85% 118 131 0.10% 24 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kim Koivu 0.30% 333 201 123
Lars Van Der Vight 0.41% 244 101 88
Lars Van Meijel 1.42% 70 46 49
Lauri Ruuska 0.70% 143 111 154
Lee Slattery 0.09% 1111 276 43
Liam Nolan 1.54% 65 67 88
Lorenzo Scalise 1.06% 94 101 0.10% 19 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Vacarisas 1.03% 97 126 0.20% 74 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mario Galiano Aguilar 0.07% 1429 301 43
Mark Power 0.48% 208 141 123
Martin Simonsen 0.87% 115 131 0.10% 103 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mateusz Gradecki 0.02% 5000 1501 116
Matt Oshrine 0.12% 833 501 24
Matt Sharpstene 0.06% 1667 751 103
Matthew Cheung 0.49% 204 141 39
Matthis Besard 1.40% 71 46 131
Max Kennedy 0.48% 208 201 14
Maxence Giboudot 0.29% 345 401 88
Maximilian Schmitt 0.21% 476 501 67
Michal Bargenda 0.00% 10000 4001 149
Nathan Legendre 0.12% 833 351 103
Nick Bachem 0.46% 217 201 123
Nick Carlson 0.59% 169 301 0.30% 5 5.4 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolai Kristensen 0.34% 294 126 10
Nikolas Tyminski 0.00% 10000 10001 67
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 1.35% 74 46 24
Oliver Gillberg 1.79% 56 41 142
Oliver Jacobsson 0.11% 909 401 88
Oliver Wilson 0.56% 179 161 74
Pablo Alperi Lopez 0.00% 10000 276 123
Palmer Jackson 0.13% 769 501 103
Pedro Figueiredo 1.79% 56 51 61
Per Langfors 2.46% 41 41 24
Philipp Katich 0.17% 588 201 103
Quim Vidal 0.64% 156 61 7
Renato Paratore 2.62% 38 26 39
Rhys Enoch 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 67 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricardo Santos 0.02% 5000 401 149
Robert Moran 0.05% 2000 601 88
Robin Petersson 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 7 -0.1 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 1.28% 78 81 19
Rocco Repetto 0.10% 1000 251 1
Romain Wattel 0.16% 625 351 88
Ronan Kleu 0.53% 189 126 103
Roope Kakko 0.37% 270 226 56
Ryan Evans 0.08% 1250 751 88
Ryan Lumsden 1.23% 81 46 131
Sam Jones 0.46% 217 126 88
Sam Locke 0.21% 476 301 131
Sam Mullane 0.00% 10000 2501 149
Santiago Tarrio 0.99% 101 81 64
Saptak Talwar 0.27% 370 301 116
Sebastian Friedrichsen 0.79% 127 101 54
Sebastian Garcia 1.07% 93 56 67
Sebastien Gros 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 155 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soren Broholt Lind 0.16% 625 601 142
Stefano Mazzoli 2.02% 50 31 49
Stuart Manley 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 32 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tobias Jonsson 0.43% 233 141 19
Tom Lewis 0.44% 227 161 10
Tomas Gouveia 0.60% 167 126 116
Victor Garcia Broto 0.02% 5000 1251 43
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.63% 159 151 67
Victor Pastor 0.55% 182 151 2
Vince Van Veen 0.40% 250 201 88
Will Enefer 0.39% 256 226 24
Will Hopkins 0.26% 385 351 54
Wouter De Vries 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 64 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 601 103

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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