Simulation Results: Blot Play9

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Van Hauwe	0.00%	10000	751		146
Adam Wallin	2.31%	43	26		122
Alexis Leray	0.15%	667	251		47
Alfie Plant	0.92%	109	101		21
Algot Kleen	0.48%	208	91		87
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.32%	313	276		130
Andoni Etchenique	0.22%	455	501		71
Andres German Gallegos	0.16%	625	501		34
Andrew Wilson	1.20%	83	61		62
Anguerrand Voisin	0.00%	10000			150
Antoine Auboin	0.00%	10000	2001		133
Asier Aguirre	0.09%	1111	1001		112
Aymeric Laussot	0.17%	588	401		87
Baard Skogen	1.19%	84	71		87
Bastien Amat	0.31%	323	351		112
Benjamin Hebert	1.33%	75	41		112
Benjamin Kedochim	0.18%	556	351		130
Benjamin Rusch	0.25%	400	401		17
Borja Virto	1.14%	88	81		53
Bradley Bawden	0.73%	137	126		53
Bryce Easton	1.78%	56	41		11
Callum Farr	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	71	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Callum Tarren	1.17%	85	67		112
Calum Fyfe	1.70%	59	46		21
Charles Huntzinger	1.43%	70	71		4
Charlie Forster	1.05%	95	86		47
Chase Hanna	0.75%	133	126		8
Chris Wood	1.20%	83	46		94
Christian Braunig	0.40%	250	151		47
Christofer Rahm	0.45%	222	201		87
Christoffer Bring	0.06%	1667	751		34
Clement Guichard	0.18%	556	251		103
Clement Sordet	2.32%	43	34		57
Collin Adams	0.17%	588	751		94
Corey Shaun	0.17%	588	501		67
Cormac Sharvin	0.07%	1429	1251		112
Damien Perrier	0.14%	714	501		29
Dan Erickson	0.80%	125	111		34
David Horsey	1.34%	75	46		17
David Langley	0.02%	5000	401		71
Deon Germishuys	1.64%	61	67	0.10%	34	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dominic Clemons	0.00%	10000	1001		122
Dorian Fournier	0.00%	10000	501		69
Edgar Catherine	0.04%	2500	751		137
Edouard Cereto	0.00%	10000	401		122
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.01%	10000	1001		122
Frank Kennedy	1.17%	85	101	0.20%	57	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frederik Kjettrup	0.12%	833	251		2
Gavin Green	0.17%	588	301		94
Graeme Robertson	0.30%	333	251		21
Grant Haefner	2.66%	38	81	1.40%	34	-1.4	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gregory Bourdy	0.06%	1667	301		103
Haider Hussain	0.02%	5000	1001		122
Hayden Hopewell	0.08%	1250	501		57
Haydn Barron	2.55%	39	31		71
Hermes Ferchaud	0.01%	10000	501		153
Hurly Long	0.22%	455	301		143
Jack Floydd	0.15%	667	401		34
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.16%	625	351		71
James Allan	0.23%	435	301		94
James Meyer De Beco	0.86%	116	126	0.10%	34	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Sugrue	0.09%	1111	501		143
Jamie Rutherford	1.83%	55	51		34
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.30%	333	301		53
Javier Calles Roman	0.27%	370	251		137
Jean Bekirian	0.75%	133	101		29
Jean-Briac Chatel	0.03%	3333	1001		103
Jerry Ji	0.05%	2000	401		112
Jhared Hack	3.51%	28	34	0.60%	14	-0.6	Spreadex: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jiri Zuska	0.43%	233	151		71
Joel Moscatel	0.46%	217	176		71
John Axelsen	0.25%	400	401		71
John Catlin	3.05%	33	26		14
John Gough	0.74%	135	141		1
John-Ross Galbraith	0.07%	1429	401		71
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.67%	149	301	0.30%	21	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joseba Torres	0.52%	192	601	0.40%	8	-0.4	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Josep Maria Serra	0.01%	10000	1501		149
Josh Hilleard	0.39%	256			152
Julien Brun	1.03%	97	56		29
Julien Sale	1.31%	76	51		21
Kevin Esteve Rigaill	0.01%	10000	751		150
Kieran Vincent	2.49%	40	17		143
Kris Kim	0.03%	3333	751		87
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.02%	5000	1501		34
Lars Van Der Vight	0.97%	103	67		7
Lauri Ruuska	0.45%	222	91		137
Liam Johnston	0.16%	625	501		71
Liam Nolan	0.82%	122	111		4
Linus Lang	0.09%	1111	301		122
Louis Albertse	1.65%	61	51		57
Louis Darthenay	0.03%	3333	501		64
Lucas Abrial	0.00%	10000			103
Lucas Poupaert	0.00%	10000	2001		103
Ludovico Addabbo	0.05%	2000	501		133
Lukas Nemecz	1.08%	93	71		130
M.J. Daffue	2.99%	33	23		71
M.J. Viljoen	0.35%	286	251		29
Manuel Ballesteros	0.00%	10000	501
Marc Hammer	0.97%	103	126	0.20%	21	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marc Warren	1.80%	56	46		153
Mark Power	1.10%	91	101	0.10%	21	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Eriksson	0.11%	909	501		112
Martin Vorster	1.12%	89	71		62
Matheo Guitton	0.00%	10000	501		70
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.42%	238	151		103
Matt Gilchrest	0.10%	1000	501		34
Matthis Besard	1.74%	57	51		71
Max Kennedy	0.87%	115	91		71
Maxence Giboudot	1.73%	58	51		4
Maxime Legros	0.26%	385	71		34
Michael Alexander Mjaaseth	0.15%	667	86		103
Michael Feuerstein	0.11%	909	501		122
Nathan Cossement	0.05%	2000	501		122
Nathan Legendre	0.12%	833	501		29
Niklas Regner	0.43%	233	401	0.20%	17	-0.2	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ollie Jacobsson	0.02%	5000	751		153
Oskari Nikku	0.09%	1111	751		94
Pablo Ereno	3.40%	29	23		3
Paul Beauvy	0.63%	159	201	0.10%	34	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Esnault	0.00%	10000	101		147
Pedro Figueiredo	2.53%	40	34		14
Philipp Katich	0.31%	323	226		148
Pierre Pineau	0.63%	159	126		47
Quinnton Croker	0.20%	500	401		87
Robert Dinwiddie	0.14%	714	201		71
Robert Foley	0.03%	3333	1001		137
Robin Roussel	0.04%	2500	1001		133
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	94	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robin Williams	1.49%	67	51		103
Romain Wattel	0.17%	588	151		94
Ronan Mullarney	0.12%	833	401		47
Rory Franssen	0.12%	833	601		71
Ross Mcgowan	0.34%	294	201		137
Ryan Lumsden	1.06%	94	101	0.10%	64	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Van Velzen	1.38%	72	61		112
Sam Hutsby	0.57%	175	201	0.10%	137	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Santiago Tarrio	1.07%	93	51		11
Saptak Talwar	1.09%	92	101	0.10%	64	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Fernandez	0.01%	10000	1001		68
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.12%	89	51		57
Sebastien Gros	0.04%	2500	601		133
Soren Broholt Lind	0.08%	1250	1001		153
Steven Brown	0.42%	238	201		71
Theo Brizard	0.01%	10000	751		87
Tiger Christensen	0.31%	323	226		17
Tom Gueant	0.04%	2500	501		11
Tomas Gouveia	0.63%	159	151		94
Ugo Malcor	0.59%	169	201	0.10%	112	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Varun Chopra	0.14%	714	501		21
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.26%	385	501	0.10%	34	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wil Besseling	0.72%	139	126		53
Wilco Nienaber	1.98%	51	46		103
Wouter De Vries	0.59%	169	176		47
Xavier Poncelet	0.01%	10000	1001		94
Yannik Paul	0.89%	112	81		8

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Grant Haefner	2.66%	38	81	1.40%	34	-2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jhared Hack	3.51%	28	34	0.60%	14	-2	Spreadex: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Joseba Torres	0.52%	192	601	0.40%	8	-2	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.