Simulation Results: Abu Dhabi Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 4.97% 20 21 0.20% 47 -0.2 Vbet: 18/1, 6pl, 1/4
Ahmad Skaik 0.00% 10000 1501 98
Albert Boneta 0.80% 125 201 0.30% 5 2.775 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Albin Bergstrom 0.68% 147 176 0.10% 60 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alexander George Frances 0.12% 833 226 43
Alexander Settemsdal 0.01% 10000 1001 85
Aron Zemmer 0.28% 357 301 75
Ayden Knight 0.00% 10000 1501 153
Bailey Gill 0.04% 2500 501 29
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.20% 500 101 18
Bastien Amat 0.04% 2500 251 117
Ben Sigel 0.00% 10000 2001 117
Ben Stow 0.51% 196 201 146
Benjamin Kedochim 0.01% 10000 1501 75
Borja Virto 1.65% 61 67 0.20% 24 -0.2 Vbet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/4
Bradley Bawden 0.22% 455 326 146
Brandon Kewalramani 0.00% 10000 1501 75
Bryce Easton 0.43% 233 111
Callan Barrow 0.37% 270 126 29
Callum Farr 2.66% 38 51 0.70% 54 -0.7 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cedric Gugler 0.04% 2500 751 108
Charlie Thornton 0.00% 10000 1501 117
Chase Hanna 1.22% 82 151 0.60% 36 -0.6 Vbet: 140/1, 6pl, 1/4
Chris Paisley 0.04% 2500 501 85
Christian Jacobsen 0.14% 714 251 67
Christofer Blomstrand 0.14% 714 501 128
Christofer Rahm 0.07% 1429 1001 98
Christoffer Bring 1.45% 69 101 0.50% 11 -0.5 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Clement Charmasson 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 128 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Clement Sordet 1.11% 90 61 98
Coby Carruthers 0.00% 10000 501 85
Craig Howie 0.62% 161 81 47
Curtis Knipes 0.00% 10000 351 117
Daan Huizing 0.49% 204 111 24
Damien Perrier 0.03% 3333 501 60
Dan Erickson 1.11% 90 51 136
Daniel Mulligan 0.00% 10000 2001 117
Daniel Young 0.89% 112 81 47
Danny List 0.38% 263 201
David Horsey 0.98% 102 71 18
David Law 1.45% 69 67 2
Davis Bryant 2.08% 48 51 0.10% 4 0.5125 Vbet: 45/1, 6pl, 1/4
Denwit David Boriboonsub 0.12% 833 226 73
Dermot Mcelroy 0.11% 909 501 65
Eddie Pepperell 1.60% 63 41 98
Eduard Rousaud 0.04% 2500 501 47
Enrico Di Nitto 0.02% 5000 751 108
Euan Walker 3.78% 26 26 60
Felix Mory 2.47% 40 41 11
Filippo Celli 4.16% 24 21 29
Freddy Schott 2.67% 37 26 24
Gabriel Morgan 0.01% 10000 751 98
Garrick Porteous 0.37% 270 161 11
Gary King 0.00% 10000 1501 128
George Bloor 1.20% 83 71 36
George Coetzee 1.38% 72 36 36
Graeme Robertson 0.07% 1429 251 85
Gregor Graham 0.04% 2500 501 36
Gunner Wiebe 0.21% 476 251 47
Hayden Hopewell 0.48% 208 126 98
Hurly Long 0.56% 179 131 98
Ilirian Zalli 0.01% 10000 1001 117
Issa Abou El Ela 0.00% 10000 601 75
J.C. Ritchie 3.39% 29 23 36
Jack Davidson 0.56% 179 276 0.20% 75 -0.2 Vbet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/4
Jaco Prinsloo 0.91% 110 111 29
James Meyer De Beco 0.24% 417 176 108
James Morrison 0.27% 370 251 85
Jamie Rutherford 1.82% 55 41 11
Javier Barcos Garbayo 0.28% 357 201 117
Jean Bekirian 0.20% 500 151 54
Jens Fahrbring 1.21% 83 81 65
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.20% 500 351 108
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.20% 500 401 18
Jesper Sandborg 0.59% 169 141 117
Jiri Zuska 0.03% 3333 501 85
Joachim B. Hansen 0.00% 10000 1501 128
John Axelsen 0.70% 143 111 56
John Gough 0.09% 1111 351 85
Jonathan Caldwell 0.07% 1429 301 73
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.31% 323 301 85
Jonathan Selvaraj 0.00% 10000 3001 146
Joseba Torres 0.75% 133 201 0.30% 24 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.13% 769 101 136
Julian Perico 0.30% 333 226 47
Justin Harding 1.52% 66 61 29
Justin Walters 0.70% 143 126 18
Jye Pickin 0.03% 3333 401 108
Khaled Attieh 0.00% 10000 1501 141
Lars Van Meijel 1.21% 83 67 71
Lev Grinberg 0.22% 455 276 85
Liam Nolan 0.23% 435 151 108
Lorenzo Scalise 0.54% 185 226 0.10% 11 -0.1 Vbet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/4
Louis Albertse 0.43% 233 251 128
Lucas Vacarisas 0.34% 294 176 150
Mark Power 0.53% 189 126 98
Martin Simonsen 0.89% 112 121 0.10% 85 -0.1 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Oshrine 0.02% 5000 501 71
Matt Sharpstene 0.00% 10000 601 75
Matthis Besard 1.35% 74 41 29
Max Kennedy 1.10% 91 111 0.20% 47 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maxence Giboudot 0.13% 769 401 11
Maximilian Schmitt 0.03% 3333 251 60
Maximilian Steinlechner 4.25% 24 26 0.40% 29 -0.4 Vbet: 22/1, 6pl, 1/4
Maxwell Martin 0.01% 10000 1501 141
Michael Feuerstein 0.07% 1429 751 43
Michele Ortolani 0.06% 1667 501 36
Mohammad Skaik 0.00% 10000 3001 154
Mustapha Pinta 0.00% 10000 108
Nathan Legendre 0.02% 5000 501 128
Neyl Cherrat 0.00% 10000 2001 155
Nick Carlson 0.26% 385 251 75
Nicolai Kristensen 0.68% 147 111 18
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 1.24% 81 56 56
Oliver Bekker 0.24% 417 131 69
Oliver Wilson 0.12% 833 401 69
Palmer Jackson 0.07% 1429 301 67
Pedro Figueiredo 3.49% 29 41 1.10% 36 -1.1 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Per Langfors 1.20% 83 67 43
Quim Vidal 1.37% 73 51 56
Rami Samawi 0.00% 10000 108
Rayan Ahmed 0.00% 10000 1501 152
Renato Paratore 1.85% 54 34 1
Rhys Enoch 0.14% 714 351 43
Rikard Karlberg 0.39% 256 176 10
Robert Foley 0.02% 5000 501 85
Robin Petersson 0.08% 1250 751 56
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 0.91% 110 101 5
Ryan Evans 0.04% 2500 301 146
Ryan Lumsden 0.29% 345 176 9
Sam Hutsby 0.43% 233 226 85
Sam Jones 0.48% 208 67 136
Sam Locke 0.01% 10000 751 60
Sam Mullane 0.00% 10000 2501 141
Santiago Tarrio 1.07% 93 56 75
Saptak Talwar 0.26% 385 176 150
Sebastian Friedrichsen 2.52% 40 46 0.40% 117 -0.4 Vbet: 40/1, 6pl, 1/4
Sebastian Garcia 0.45% 222 226 2
Sebastien Gros 0.30% 333 251 141
Soren Broholt Lind 0.02% 5000 1251 141
Soren Kjeldsen 1.06% 94 81 75
Stefano Mazzoli 2.03% 49 29 5
Stuart Manley 0.50% 200 351 0.20% 136 -0.2 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tadeas Tetak 0.44% 227 101 18
Tiger Christensen 0.07% 1429 501 117
Tom Lewis 0.62% 161 161 75
Tomas Gouveia 0.73% 137 101 85
Velten Meyer 0.15% 667 251 128
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.06% 1667 301 5
Victor Pastor 0.35% 286 201 98
Vince Van Veen 0.14% 714 276 128
Wil Besseling 1.10% 91 91 98
Wilco Nienaber 2.01% 50 23 24
Will Enefer 0.15% 667 251 11
Will Hopkins 1.88% 53 101 0.90% 117 -0.9 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 401 108

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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