Simulation Results: Western Australian Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Townsend 0.91% 110 226 0.50% 79 -0.5 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adam Baillie 0.00% 10000 751 43
Adam Bland 0.69% 145 101 17
Adam Brady 0.26% 385 301 85
Adam Hatch 0.01% 10000 1501 33
Aiden Didone 0.40% 250 451 0.20% 48 -0.2 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alexander Simpson 0.14% 714 301 26
Andre Lautee 0.24% 417 276 85
Andrew Campbell 1.61% 62 41 109
Andrew Evans 0.83% 120 81 66
Andrew Kelly 0.68% 147 141 40
Andrew Martin 2.50% 40 34 58
Anthony Quayle 2.31% 43 19 9
Ben Eccles 0.62% 161 101 45
Ben Henkel 0.65% 154 111 17
Ben Hollis 0.02% 5000 251 128
Blaike Perkins 0.14% 714 551 94
Blake Phillips 0.21% 476 126 24
Blake Proverbs 0.77% 130 226 0.30% 85 -0.3 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Blake Windred 0.77% 130 176 0.20% 66 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Braden Becker 0.40% 250 111 66
Bradley Kivimets 0.04% 2500 1001 79
Brady Watt 0.56% 179 101 9
Brett Rumford 2.41% 41 67 0.90% 17 -0.9 Star Sports: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Harlock 0.15% 667 201 12
Cameron John 3.78% 26 21 2
Charlie Robbins 0.08% 1250 351 109
Chase Oberle 0.01% 10000 276 85
Christopher Malec 0.04% 2500 351 58
Christopher Wood 0.62% 161 131 79
Connor Fewkes 0.02% 5000 161 17
Connor McDade 0.37% 270 151 85
Connor McKinney 0.89% 112 76 16
Cooper Eccleston 0.14% 714 801 33
Corey Lamb 0.90% 111 71 54
Cory Crawford 2.53% 40 51 0.60% 52 -0.6 Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Curtis Luck 4.53% 22 13 6
Dale Howie 0.01% 10000 1501 109
Daniel Fox 0.37% 270 161 122
Daniel Gill 0.17% 588 1251 0.10% 66 -0.1 Spreadex: 1250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Deyen Lawson 0.83% 120 161 0.20% 109 -0.2 Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dillon Hart 1.01% 99 131 0.20% 85 -0.2 Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.21% 476 30
Douglas Klein 1.76% 57 41 48
Dylan Gardner 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 30 -0.1 Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Edward Donoghue 0.12% 833 451 58
Gavin Fairfax 0.92% 109 111 30
George Barclay 0.06% 1667 451 58
Hamish Farquharson 0.16% 625 276 11
Hamish Murray 0.13% 769 401 98
Harrison Davis 0.00% 10000 276 109
Hayden Hopewell 0.65% 154 81 17
Haydn Barron 1.65% 61 51 6
Jack Munro 0.69% 145 81 33
Jack Pountney 0.05% 2000 1251 116
Jack Tanner 0.18% 556 801 0.10% 54 -0.1 Unibet: 800/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jak Carter 0.47% 213 121 124
Jake McLeod 2.41% 41 23 58
Jakeb Dunkley 0.00% 10000 751 125
James Hydes 0.31% 323 351 56
James Marchesani 1.91% 52 46 66
James Mee 0.26% 385 451 105
James Tauariki 0.03% 3333 1001 116
Jared Edwards 1.22% 82 151 0.60% 8 -0.6 Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaron Leasure 0.00% 10000 251 98
Jarryd Felton 0.66% 152 161 85
Jason Hong 1.04% 96 61 66
Jason Norris 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 94 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jay Mackenzie 1.31% 76 26 33
Jayce Hargrove 0.07% 1429 751 26
Jayden Cripps 0.04% 2500 1251 98
Jayden Ford 0.40% 250 181 48
Jeffrey Guan 2.14% 47 41 24
Jimmy Zheng 1.11% 90 131 0.30% 66 -0.3 Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Mitchell 0.80% 125 301 0.50% 98 -0.5 Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Boulton 0.00% 10000 2001 94
Jordan Doull 1.89% 53 23 17
Jordan Jung 0.00% 10000 751 105
Jose De Sousa 0.02% 5000 1501 66
Josh Armstrong 0.35% 286 111 12
Joshua Greer 0.42% 238 451 0.20% Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Josiah Edwards 0.02% 5000 326 33
Jye Halls 0.10% 1000 251 66
Jye Pickin 0.92% 109 161 0.30% 98 -0.3 Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kameron Williams 0.15% 667 276 79
Kayun Mudadana 0.05% 2000 126 26
Kerry Mountcastle 2.86% 35 51 0.90% 58 -0.9 Star Sports: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirsten Rudgeley 1.48% 68 326 1.20% 129 -1.2 Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Michel 0.23% 435 276 79
Lachlan Barker 1.57% 64 41 3
Liam Sullivan 0.00% 10000 1251 116
Lincoln Tighe 0.65% 154 176 0.10% 52 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Louis Dobbelaar 0.34% 294 176 12
Lucas Higgins 0.22% 455 351 98
Luke Kidd 0.00% 10000 351 105
Mako Thompson 0.45% 222 276 0.10% 17 -0.1 Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marc Leishman 8.45% 12 7 3
Mason Lee 0.16% 625 1001 0.10% 98 -0.1 Spreadex: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matias Sanchez 1.60% 63 51 12
Matt Dowling 0.02% 5000 2001 94
Matthew Griffin 0.63% 159 141 57
Max Charles 0.23% 435 501 79
Michael Hanrahan-Smith 0.00% 10000 1501 116
Nathan Barbieri 3.06% 33 19 3
Nathan Page 0.78% 128 111 122
Oliver Bekker 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 1 7.8125 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oliver Goss 0.07% 1429 226 40
Ollie Marsh 0.09% 1111 451 85
Patrick Healy 1.51% 66 151 0.90% 66 -0.9 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Peter Cooke 0.57% 175 126 44
Phoenix Campbell 0.82% 122 276 0.50% 125 -0.5 Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quinnton Croker 1.92% 52 46 45
Ronan Nayar 0.00% 10000 1251 131
Ryan Peake 1.49% 67 61 33
Samuel Slater 0.18% 556 276 85
Silvester Tan 0.01% 10000 1251 125
Simon Hawkes 0.14% 714 226 45
Souta Fujii 0.05% 2000 1251 115
Spencer Harrison 0.03% 3333 451 40
Stephen Leaney 0.05% 2000 351 66
Thomas Power Horan 1.34% 75 76 26
Tim Hart 0.51% 196 101 66
Ty Gingerich 1.72% 58 141 1.00% 33 -1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Wood 1.28% 78 111 0.40% 58 -0.4 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Valerie Khuu 0.00% 10000 1251 130
Wil Daibarra 0.08% 1250 751 116
Will Florimo 2.92% 34 31 48
William Bruyeres 0.10% 1000 351 58
Zach Capelli 0.34% 294 1001 0.20% 116 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Ion 0.81% 123 151 0.10% 109 -0.1 Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Murray 0.91% 110 121 0.10% 66 -0.1 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zachary Maxwell 0.10% 1000 1251 105

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates