Simulation Results: Western Australian PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Townsend 0.96% 104 226 0.50% 25 -0.5 Unibet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Bland 1.26% 79 56 78
Adam Brady 0.21% 476 251 56
Aiden Didone 0.57% 175 476 0.40% Unibet: 475/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alexander Simpson 0.06% 1667 176 56
Andre Lautee 0.23% 435 251 41
Andrew Campbell 1.49% 67 61 10
Andrew Evans 0.68% 147 46 56
Andrew Kelly 0.34% 294 101 25
Andrew Martin 4.80% 21 26 1.00% 31 -1 Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Bautista 2.58% 39 12 1
Ben Carpenter 0.03% 3333 301 78
Ben Eccles 0.61% 164 81 51
Ben Henkel 1.07% 93 67 45
Ben Hollis 0.03% 3333 93
Blaike Perkins 0.30% 333 476 0.10% 104 -0.1 Unibet: 475/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blake Proverbs 0.40% 250 326 0.10% 31 -0.1 Spreadex: 325/1, 6pl, 1/5
Blake Windred 0.27% 370 176 24
Braden Becker 0.73% 137 111 45
Bradley Kivimets 0.02% 5000 1251 49
Brady Watt 0.61% 164 56 73
Brett Rumford 1.46% 68 91 0.40% 20 -0.4 Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brock Healy 0.03% 3333 126 78
Cameron Harlock 0.16% 625 176 35
Cameron John 2.96% 34 18 15
Charlie Robbins 0.20% 500 251 85
Christopher Malec 0.06% 1667 301 102
Christopher Wood 0.71% 141 91 39
Connor Fewkes 0.16% 625 121 113
Connor McDade 0.71% 141 81 50
Connor McKinney 1.83% 55 41 73
Conor Brown 0.00% 10000 1251 104
Cooper Eccleston 0.34% 294 601 0.20% 93 -0.2 Unibet: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Correy Price 0.00% 10000 1501 44
Cory Crawford 2.30% 43 46 0.10% 119 -0.1 Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Curtis Luck 3.92% 26 15 8
Dale Howie 0.00% 10000 1001 104
Daniel Fox 0.23% 435 201 31
Daniel Gale 4.65% 22 41 2.30% 93 -2.3 Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Gill 0.10% 1000 1001 67
Darcy Brereton 1.63% 61 91 0.50% 20 -0.5 Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Deyen Lawson 0.91% 110 151 0.20% 35 -0.2 Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dillon Hart 0.24% 417 181 10
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.54% 185 85
Douglas Klein 2.61% 38 34 25
Dylan Gardner 0.54% 185 226 0.10% 73 -0.1 Unibet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Garion Foreman 0.00% 10000 501 117
Gavin Fairfax 1.64% 61 91 0.50% 56 -0.5 Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
George Barclay 0.03% 3333 201 78
Gideon Tikili 0.00% 10000 1251 114
Hamish Murray 0.05% 2000 276 56
Harrison Davis 0.00% 10000 101 109
Hayden Hopewell 0.91% 110 71 56
Haydn Barron 2.10% 48 56 0.30% 35 -0.3 Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Munro 1.05% 95 41 78
Jack Pountney 0.07% 1429 751 93
Jack Tanner 0.23% 435 701 0.10% 67 -0.1 Unibet: 700/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jak Carter 0.39% 256 81 85
James Hydes 0.15% 667 326 41
James Marchesani 1.21% 83 41 10
James Mee 0.12% 833 751 25
James Tauariki 0.07% 1429 601 115
Jared Edwards 1.05% 95 151 0.40% 15 -0.4 Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jarryd Felton 1.30% 77 91 0.20% 56 -0.2 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jason Hong 1.82% 55 41 41
Jason Norris 0.99% 101 176 0.40% 78 -0.4 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jay Mackenzie 0.90% 111 29 2
Jayce Hargrove 0.34% 294 476 0.10% 93 -0.1 Unibet: 475/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jayden Cripps 0.01% 10000 901 56
Jayden Ford 0.87% 115 161 0.30% 85 -0.3 Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeffrey Guan 0.31% 323 111 10
Jimmy Zheng 0.20% 500 181 4
Joel Mitchell 0.80% 125 501 0.60% 31 -0.6 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Doull 3.00% 33 26 25
Jose De Sousa 0.01% 10000 1001 93
Josh Armstrong 0.48% 208 81 45
Josh Clarke 0.10% 1000 601 118
Joshua Greer 0.49% 204 326 0.20% 67 -0.2 Spreadex: 325/1, 6pl, 1/5
Josiah Edwards 0.01% 10000 161 85
Jye Halls 0.07% 1429 151 78
Jye Pickin 0.43% 233 151 20
Kameron Williams 0.07% 1429 476 51
Kerry Mountcastle 3.65% 27 41 1.20% 20 -1.2 Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Michel 0.46% 217 151 85
Lachlan Aylen 0.16% 625 601 40
Lachlan Barker 1.11% 90 36 10
Lincoln Tighe 1.20% 83 76 85
Louis Dobbelaar 0.86% 116 101 102
Lucas Higgins 0.24% 417 201 56
Mako Thompson 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 35 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mason Lee 0.10% 1000 501 67
Matias Sanchez 1.24% 81 61 15
Matt Dowling 0.04% 2500 1501 93
Matthew Griffin 0.88% 114 67 73
Max Charles 0.20% 500 351 56
Nathan Barbieri 3.59% 28 18 4
Nathan Page 0.49% 204 121 25
Oliver Bekker 1.62% 62 81 0.40% 67 -0.4 Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Healy 1.93% 52 101 0.90% 51 -0.9 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Phoenix Campbell 0.89% 112 201 0.40% 56 -0.4 William Hill: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quinnton Croker 1.45% 69 41 19
Ryan Peake 2.08% 48 41 73
Sam Brazel 1.33% 75 71 104
Samuel Slater 0.89% 112 226 0.40% 112 -0.4 Unibet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Barr 0.13% 769 351 45
Silvester Tan 0.00% 10000 751 93
Souta Fujii 0.18% 556 601 109
Spencer Harrison 0.04% 2500 201 85
Stephen Herbert 0.00% 10000 1501 116
Thomas Power Horan 0.93% 108 56 15
Tim Hart 0.95% 105 56 93
Todd Sinnott 2.88% 35 67 1.40% 8 -1.4 Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ty Gingerich 0.05% 2000 476 4
Tyler Wood 1.44% 69 71 51
Wil Daibarra 0.43% 233 351 0.10% 109 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Florimo 1.99% 50 36 3
William Bruyeres 0.24% 417 226 104
Zach Ion 0.31% 323 301 4
Zach Murray 0.69% 145 151 51
Zachary Maxwell 0.09% 1111 801 67

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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