Simulation Results: Victorian Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Pike 0.78% 128 141 0.10% 42 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aaron Townsend 0.44% 227 501 0.20% 74 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aaron Wilkin 0.94% 106 34 6
Abel Eduard 0.12% 833 501 127
Adam Bland 2.22% 45 36 12
Adam Brady 0.74% 135 81 90
Aiden Didone 0.32% 313 601 0.20% 99 -0.2 VBet: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alex Edge 0.09% 1111 1001 61
Alexander Simpson 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 90 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andre Lautee 0.27% 370 751 0.10% 53 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Campbell 0.98% 102 61 43
Andrew Evans 0.81% 123 201 0.30% 6 2.775 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrew Kelly 1.05% 95 81 32
Andrew Martin 1.52% 66 34 18
Andrew Richards 0.11% 909 751 74
Anthony Choat 0.08% 1250 1001 74
Anthony Quayle 4.62% 22 17 12
Austin Bautista 0.34% 294 201 3
Ben Eccles 0.79% 127 81 8
Ben Henkel 0.74% 135 101 90
Ben Wharton 0.17% 588 751 35
Blaike Perkins 0.13% 769 501 74
Blake Phillips 0.02% 5000 751 119
Blake Proverbs 1.34% 75 41 67
Blake Windred 1.30% 77 126 0.50% 12 -0.5 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Braden Becker 0.72% 139 101 43
Bradley Kivimets 0.05% 2000 1001 74
Brady Watt 0.86% 116 101 43
Brett Coletta 3.09% 32 17 18
Brett Kellow 0.00% 10000 1001 117
Brett Rankin 0.69% 145 67 74
Cameron Harlock 0.01% 10000 751 90
Cameron John 3.45% 29 21 23
Cameron Kelly 0.00% 10000 1251 119
Chase Oberle 0.00% 10000 501 106
Chris Crabtree 0.21% 476 751 0.10% 57 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christopher Fan 0.63% 159 276 0.30% 111 -0.3 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christopher Wood 0.58% 172 301 0.20% 18 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Connor McDade 0.83% 120 126 74
Connor McKinney 0.56% 179 201 0.10% 2 1.95 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Corey Lamb 0.61% 164 41 106
Cory Crawford 2.29% 44 41 43
D.J. Loypur 0.15% 667 751 53
Damon Stephenson 0.14% 714 1001 90
Darcy Boyd 0.05% 2000 1251 129
Darcy Brereton 0.57% 175 126 23
Declan O'Donovan 0.07% 1429 301 8
Denzel Ieremia 0.95% 105 67 18
Deyen Lawson 1.84% 54 51 23
Dillon Hart 0.39% 256 251 67
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.37% 270 115
Douglas Klein 1.50% 67 67 90
Dylan Gardner 0.38% 263 501 0.20% 99 -0.2 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Edward Donoghue 0.32% 313 276 115
Gavin Fairfax 0.83% 120 161 0.20% 74 -0.2 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hamish Farquharson 0.23% 435 501 60
Harrison Crowe 1.33% 75 41 111
Harry Goakes 0.02% 5000 1251 74
Jack Buchanan 1.87% 53 29 35
Jack Harrison 0.13% 769 751 61
Jack Munro 0.83% 120 126 43
Jack Pountney 0.06% 1667 601 90
Jack Thompson 0.83% 120 51 57
Jak Carter 1.97% 51 29 23
Jake McLeod 4.22% 24 21 23
Jake Meenhorst 0.50% 200 501 0.30% 43 -0.3 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Conran 0.25% 400 301 74
James Gibellini 0.32% 313 251 90
James Gordon 0.05% 2000 1001 67
James Hydes 0.37% 270 351 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Marchesani 0.91% 110 67 8
James Mee 0.03% 3333 501 35
Jarryd Felton 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 99 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jason Norris 1.15% 87 126 0.40% 90 -0.4 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jasper Stubbs 1.47% 68 46 106
Jay Mackenzie 0.20% 500 401 123
Jordan Doull 2.51% 40 29 74
Jordan Zunic 2.01% 50 67 0.50% 43 -0.5 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Josh Armstrong 0.48% 208 176 131
Josh Geary 2.55% 39 46 0.40% 1 11.25 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Josh Younger 0.88% 114 201 0.40% 74 -0.4 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joshua Greer 0.39% 256 176 111
Josiah Edwards 0.01% 10000 751 74
Justin Warren 0.76% 132 81 117
Jye Halls 0.43% 233 67 111
Jye Pickin 1.01% 99 51 99
Kade McBride 0.88% 114 111 40
Kayun Mudadana 0.05% 2000 251 32
Kerry Mountcastle 1.64% 61 51 3
Kristoff Soliven 0.00% 10000 1001 119
Kyle Michel 0.35% 286 251 106
Lachlan Barker 0.58% 172 251 0.20% 12 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lawrence Curtis 0.01% 10000 1251 99
Lawry Flynn 0.47% 213 101 31
Lincoln Tighe 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 43 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Louis Dobbelaar 0.24% 417 401 61
Lucas Higgins 0.39% 256 251 66
Marcus Fraser 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 67 -0.1 VBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mathew Goggin 0.77% 130 101 61
Matias Sanchez 1.33% 75 41 99
Matthew Dahlsen 0.00% 10000
Matthew Griffin 1.53% 65 71 0.10% 18 -0.1 VBet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Millar 1.42% 70 67 40
Max Moring 0.14% 714 501 67
Michael Hendry 3.24% 31 23 3
Nathan Barbieri 1.39% 72 51 52
Nathan Page 0.20% 500 601 53
Neven Basic 0.10% 1000 751 119
Peter Cooke 0.26% 385 401 61
Phoenix Campbell 0.92% 109 67 12
Quinnton Croker 1.54% 65 36 8
Ren Yonezawa 1.96% 51 23 74
Robby Turnbull 0.00% 10000 251 74
Ryan Peake 0.75% 133 67 32
Sam Brazel 0.76% 132 226 0.30% 39 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sang Jun Lee 0.00% 10000 501 129
Shae Wools-Cobb 0.33% 303 501 0.10% 23 -0.1 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shiso Go 0.11% 909 501 38
Siddharth Nadimpalli 0.12% 833 751 43
Simon Hawkes 0.19% 526 501 12
Thomas Power Horan 0.75% 133 111
Tim Hart 0.77% 130 81 132
Tim Walker 0.21% 476 501 123
Toby Walker 0.08% 1250 1251 53
Todd Sinnott 1.87% 53 46 23
Tyler Bleasby 0.00% 10000 1001 126
Tyler Hodge 0.63% 159 251 0.20% 99 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Florimo 1.06% 94 81 23
Will Moody 0.00% 10000 1251 67
William Bruyeres 0.08% 1250 751 57
Zach Murray 1.21% 83 126 0.40% 106 -0.4 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zachary Maxwell 0.23% 435 501 67

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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