Simulation Results: Victorian Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Pike	0.08%	1250	501
Aaron Townsend	0.22%	455	501		47
Aaron Wilkin	0.69%	145	121		37
Abel Eduard	0.01%	10000	101		123
Adam Blyth	0.23%	435	501		125
Adam Brady	0.38%	263	301		116
Aiden Didone	0.30%	333	351		47
Alexander Simpson	0.21%	476	601		79
Andre Lautee	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	22	-0.1	BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Andrew Campbell	1.72%	58	51		7
Andrew Evans	0.90%	111	71		64
Andrew Kelly	0.40%	250	326	0.10%	40	-0.1	Spreadex: 325/1, 5pl, 1/5
Andrew Martin	1.61%	62	46		40
Austin Bautista	1.76%	57	29		3
Bailey Goodall	0.01%	10000	1001		79
Ben Eccles	0.87%	115	101		64
Ben Henkel	1.53%	65	61		39
Ben Wharton	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	55	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/5
Billy Dowling	4.10%	24	17		79
Blake Phillips	0.11%	909	176		35
Blake Proverbs	0.45%	222	351	0.20%	22	-0.2	Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blake Windred	0.82%	122	126		94
Bo Chung	0.00%	10000	1001		122
Braden Becker	0.34%	294	126		17
Bradley Kivimets	0.09%	1111	1251		70
Brady Watt	1.33%	75	41		64
Brendan Jones	0.72%	139	81		7
Brett Rankin	1.45%	69	56		47
Brock Healy	0.01%	10000	1001		79
Cameron Harlock	0.44%	227	176		64
Cameron John	4.27%	23	23		1
Charlie Robbins	0.07%	1429	2001		94
Chase Oberle	0.05%	2000	501		64
Chris Malec	0.41%	244	351	0.10%	79	-0.1	Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chun-Ta Wu	0.00%	10000	1001		55
Colin Andrade	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Connor McDade	0.66%	152	141		70
Cooper Eccleston	0.22%	455	501		32
Cooper Moore	0.13%	769	201		94
Corey Lamb	0.39%	256	151		70
Cruze Strange	0.00%	10000	1001		94
Curtis Luck	5.34%	19	11		7
Daniel Gale	3.91%	26	26	0.10%	12	-0.1	Spreadex: 25/1, 5pl, 1/5
Darcy Brereton	1.61%	62	56		5
David Bransdon	0.38%	263	276		32
Declan O'Donovan	0.47%	213	101		47
Deyen Lawson	0.31%	323	301		36
Dillon Hart	0.45%	222	276	0.10%	110	-0.1	Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.47%	213			55
Douglas Klein	3.18%	31	126	2.40%	7	-2.4	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Gardner	0.33%	303	601	0.20%	64	-0.2	Unibet: 550/1, 5pl, 1/4
George Barclay	0.04%	2500	601		102
Greg Holmes	0.00%	10000	1001		94
Hamish Farquharson	0.33%	303	201		47
Hamish Murray	0.13%	769	1251	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Harrison Davis	0.05%	2000	1001		102
Harry McMillan	0.06%	1667	1001		113
Hayden Hopewell	0.63%	159	76		63
Haydn Barron	4.26%	23	14		70
Izaac White	0.00%	10000	1001		79
Jack Deftereos-Brennan	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Jack Munro	0.80%	125	121		19
Jack Murdoch	0.35%	286	751	0.20%	102	-0.2	Spreadex: 750/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jack Pountney	0.02%	5000	1251		102
Jack Tanner	0.05%	2000	1001		94
Jak Carter	0.36%	278	201		79
Jake McLeod	3.19%	31	23		12
Jake Riley	0.24%	417	201		40
James Conran	0.39%	256	276		12
James Marchesani	2.66%	38	26		7
James Mee	0.22%	455	351		114
Jared Edwards	1.57%	64	151	0.90%	22	-0.9	Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaron Leasure	0.64%	156	326	0.30%	114	-0.3	Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Hong	0.74%	135	101		61
Jason Norris	0.32%	313	326		127
Jay Mackenzie	0.68%	147	56		90
Jayden Cripps	0.01%	10000	1501		118
Jayden Ford	0.59%	169	276	0.20%	27	-0.2	Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeffrey Guan	1.14%	88	81		26
Jimmy Zheng	1.73%	58	71	0.30%	40	-0.3	BetMGM: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Doull	1.67%	60	51		79
Jose De Sousa	0.09%	1111	751		90
Josh Armstrong	0.50%	200	121		94
Josh Clarke	0.01%	10000	1001		118
Josh Younger	2.05%	49	46		12
Joshua Holbrook	0.01%	10000	1501		127
Josiah Edwards	0.04%	2500	501		19
Justin Warren	0.50%	200	131		102
Jye Halls	0.49%	204	161		19
Jye Pickin	0.21%	476	501		79
Kameron Williams	0.09%	1111	651		90
Kerry Mountcastle	1.37%	73	51		79
Kyle Michel	0.23%	435	651	0.10%	90	-0.1	Unibet: 650/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lachlan Barker	1.30%	77	71		4
Lachlan Wood	0.00%	10000	1251		121
Lincoln Morgan	0.15%	667	601		79
Lincoln Tighe	0.50%	200	301	0.20%	47	-0.2	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
Louis Dobbelaar	0.22%	455	201		27
Lucas Higgins	0.22%	455	351		118
Luke Coyle	0.00%	10000	501		38
Luke Porritt	0.00%	10000			127
Mako Thompson	0.77%	130	176	0.20%	17	-0.2	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mason Lee	0.32%	313	601	0.20%	70	-0.2	Unibet: 550/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Dowling	0.01%	10000	1001		70
Matthew Griffin	2.05%	49	41		30
Maverick Antcliff	1.28%	78	51		55
Max Charles	0.09%	1111	801		70
Max Christie	0.00%	10000	1001		126
Max Moring	0.07%	1429	601		116
Maxwell Oldham	0.00%	10000	1001		40
Michael Hendry	2.92%	34	26		30
Nathan Barbieri	2.67%	37	29		2
Nathan Page	0.33%	303	251		47
Patrick Healy	0.01%	10000	1001		102
Peter Cooke	0.42%	238	176		32
Quinnton Croker	1.79%	56	51		12
Samuel Espinosa Trueba	0.32%	313	1501	0.30%	55	-0.3	Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/5
Samuel Slater	0.13%	769	351		55
Spencer Harrison	0.05%	2000	601		94
Taehee Lee	0.81%	123	31		70
Thomas Power Horan	1.05%	95	61		27
Tim Hart	0.86%	116	67		22
Todd Sinnott	2.09%	48	61	0.50%	5	1.125	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ty Gingerich	1.06%	94	101	0.10%	40	-0.1	BetMGM: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyler Hodge	1.14%	88	91
Tyler Wood	0.86%	116	131	0.10%	110	-0.1	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wesley Hinton	0.06%	1667	351		124
Wil Daibarra	0.08%	1250	1001		47
Will Florimo	2.00%	50	26		62
Zach Ion	0.29%	345	326		127
Zach Murray	1.40%	71	51		40
Zachary Maxwell	0.04%	2500	1251		110

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Douglas Klein	3.18%	31	126	2.40%	7	-2	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Jared Edwards	1.57%	64	151	0.90%	22	-2	Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Todd Sinnott	2.09%	48	61	0.50%	5	4.5	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.