Simulation Results: Queensland PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Pike 0.05% 2000 276 58
Aaron Townsend 0.38% 263 301 112
Aaron Wilkin 1.67% 60 67 0.20% 54 -0.2 Star Sports: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Bland 2.65% 38 29 71
Adam Blyth 0.27% 370 401 41
Adam Brady 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 60 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aiden Didone 0.37% 270 401 0.10% 88 -0.1 Star Sports: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alexander Simpson 0.37% 270 161
Andre Lautee 0.20% 500 301 71
Andrew Brennan 0.00% 10000 1001 120
Andrew Campbell 1.38% 72 51 25
Andrew Evans 0.98% 102 67 71
Andrew Kelly 0.49% 204 126 88
Anthony Quayle 4.00% 25 13 10
Austin Bautista 1.30% 77 17 60
Ben Eccles 0.35% 286 91 51
Ben Wharton 0.23% 435 301 112
Billy Dowling 2.38% 42 34 2
Blake Phillips 0.59% 169 71 93
Blake Proverbs 0.46% 217 81 10
Blake Windred 1.14% 88 126 0.30% 25 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Braden Becker 0.78% 128 101 46
Bradley Kivimets 0.04% 2500 1501 80
Brady Watt 2.07% 48 29 34
Brett Rankin 1.40% 71 51 6
Cameron Harlock 0.60% 167 86 71
Cameron John 5.43% 18 13 1
Charlie Dann 0.01% 10000 1001 102
Charlie Robbins 0.06% 1667 751 60
Chase Oberle 0.01% 10000 176 46
Chris Duke 0.00% 10000 751 102
Christopher Malec 0.30% 333 201 34
Christopher Wood 1.34% 75 41 21
Connor McDade 0.64% 156 91 71
Cooper Eccleston 0.36% 278 301 25
Corey Lamb 0.71% 141 71 60
Cory Crawford 2.01% 50 34 8
Daniel Gale 3.48% 29 23 25
Darcy Brereton 1.60% 63 81 0.40% 31 -0.4 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Declan O'Donovan 1.15% 87 41 98
Deyen Lawson 0.36% 278 176 56
Dillon Hart 0.85% 118 176 0.30% 60 -0.3 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.46% 217 41
Douglas Klein 2.34% 43 29 7
Dustin White 0.05% 2000 401 106
Dylan Gardner 0.44% 227 251 80
Gavin Fairfax 0.66% 152 76 10
Hamish Farquharson 1.08% 93 251 0.70% 50 -0.7 BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hamish Murray 0.10% 1000 1001 93
Harrison Davis 0.07% 1429 301 80
Harrison Gomez 0.00% 10000 111 80
Harry Doig 0.00% 10000 501 71
Haydn Barron 3.95% 25 19 4
Jack Holland 0.00% 10000 1001 98
Jack Munro 0.47% 213 101 13
Jack Pountney 0.04% 2500 1001 93
Jack Tanner 0.11% 909 751 102
Jak Carter 0.53% 189 71 31
Jake McLeod 2.04% 49 31 80
James Conran 0.54% 185 126 60
James Hydes 0.12% 833 401 60
James Marchesani 1.92% 52 34 4
James Mee 0.09% 1111 601 25
James Tauariki 0.00% 10000 1501 93
Jared Edwards 1.36% 74 126 0.60% 13 -0.6 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaron Leasure 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 37 -0.1 Star Sports: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Hong 1.15% 87 61 25
Jason Norris 0.66% 152 126 60
Jasper Stubbs 0.15% 667 161 112
Jay Mackenzie 1.39% 72 15 98
Jayce Hargrove 0.06% 1667 501 102
Jayden Cripps 0.01% 10000 1001 112
Jayden Ford 1.04% 96 126 0.20% 60 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeffrey Guan 1.18% 85 51 41
Jimmy Zheng 0.83% 120 141 0.10% 17 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Lyras 1.62% 62 67 0.10% 41 -0.1 Star Sports: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Senden 0.02% 5000 276 119
Jordan Doull 1.24% 81 51 13
Jordan Zunic 1.95% 51 176 1.40% 46 -1.4 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jose De Sousa 0.13% 769 401 106
Joseph Owen 0.09% 1111 751 98
Josh Armstrong 0.53% 189 81 37
Jye Halls 0.59% 169 126 37
Jye Pickin 0.45% 222 201 54
Kyle Michel 0.20% 500 301 71
Lachlan Barker 1.42% 70 31 37
Lawry Flynn 0.53% 189 126 24
Lincoln Tighe 0.27% 370 141 60
Louis Dobbelaar 0.29% 345 81 80
Lucas Higgins 0.16% 625 201 71
Mako Thompson 0.65% 154 126 17
Mason Lee 0.02% 5000 1001 88
Matias Sanchez 2.55% 39 31 8
Matt Dowling 0.03% 3333 1251 118
Max Charles 0.14% 714 1001 56
Max Ford 0.07% 1429 501 88
Mitchell Smith 0.01% 10000 751 106
Nathan Barbieri 3.72% 27 14 34
Nathan Page 0.18% 556 201 106
Patrick Healy 0.22% 455 276 71
Phoenix Campbell 0.49% 204 126 88
Quinnton Croker 1.21% 83 46 13
Sam Brazel 1.02% 98 126 0.20% 31 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Jones 0.94% 106 41 21
Samuel Slater 0.57% 175 126 17
Shae Wools-Cobb 0.36% 278 251 59
Souta Fujii 0.01% 10000 1001 51
Steven Jeffress 0.02% 5000 1001 112
Steven Vail 0.00% 10000 1251 112
Thomas Power Horan 1.02% 98 71 60
Tim Hart 0.46% 217 81 93
Todd Sinnott 2.78% 36 36 46
Ty Gingerich 1.80% 56 61 0.20% 17 -0.2 Star Sports: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Hodge 1.00% 100 141 0.30% 111 -0.3 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Wood 1.06% 94 101 0.10% 80 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Florimo 3.08% 32 21 21
William Bruyeres 0.13% 769 301 41
Zach Ion 0.33% 303 141 51
Zach Murray 0.44% 227 176 3
Zachary Maxwell 0.03% 3333 1501 106

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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