Simulation Results: PNG Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Brady 0.84% 119 111
Adam Hatch 0.03% 3333 401 74
Alasdair Hinchliffe 0.00% 10000 2001 105
Alex Edge 0.33% 303 301 67
Andre Lautee 0.55% 182 276 0.20% 7 -0.2 PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Campbell 2.18% 46 19 10
Andrew Kelly 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 56 -0.1 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrew Richards 0.24% 417 501 38
Antony Majstorovic 0.00% 10000 501 83
Arthur Barakat 0.00% 10000 501 83
Ben Carpenter 0.00% 10000 176 52
Ben Henkel 1.65% 61 29 2
Blaike Perkins 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 43 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Blake Proverbs 1.51% 66 81 0.30% 62 -0.3 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bobby Hoto 0.00% 10000 2001 74
Braden Becker 1.45% 69 34 34
Bradley Kivimets 0.22% 455 501 56
Brian Taikiri 0.00% 10000 2001 74
Brock Healy 0.00% 10000 91 49
Caleb Bovalina 0.27% 370 276 62
Cameron Bickley 0.01% 10000 451 103
Cameron Harlock 0.17% 588 126 20
Cameron Kelly 0.01% 10000 451 67
Cassie Koma 0.01% 10000 1501 56
Charlie Dann 0.14% 714 226 54
Christopher Fan 0.85% 118 401 0.60% 38 -0.6 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christopher Malec 0.00% 10000 101 46
Christopher Wood 2.12% 47 26 34
Colin Andrade 0.00% 10000 351 83
Cooper Eccleston 0.19% 526 351 16
Corey Lamb 2.01% 50 29 8
Cory Crawford 2.03% 49 41 1
Daniel Fox 0.70% 143 101 43
Doong Gyu Han 0.01% 10000 751 30
Douglas Klein 2.96% 34 26 113
Dylan Gardner 1.41% 71 141 0.70% 51 -0.7 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gavin Fairfax 2.37% 42 61 0.70% 20 -0.7 PaddyPower: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gideon Tikili 0.00% 10000 1251 67
Harrison Crowe 3.40% 29 15 28
Harry McMillan 0.17% 588 326 74
Issac WIlliam 0.00% 10000 109
Ivano Ivano 0.00% 10000 112
Jack Harrison 0.53% 189 401 0.30% 97 -0.3 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Munro 1.88% 53 29 25
Jack Pountney 0.30% 333 301 38
Jake McLeod 6.08% 16 14 2
James Conran 1.26% 79 41 28
James Gibellini 1.24% 81 301 0.90% 62 -0.9 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Hydes 1.31% 76 201 0.80% 67 -0.8 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Marape 0.00% 10000 2501 113
James Marchesani 1.52% 66 31 16
James Mee 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 46 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Tauariki 0.64% 156 176 0.10% 48 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Japhet Olik 0.00% 10000 2001 113
Jared Edwards 0.48% 208 126 8
Jason Hong 2.27% 44 51 0.30% 43 -0.3 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jasper Stubbs 1.91% 52 71 0.50% 67 -0.5 PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jay Mackenzie 0.66% 152 161 10
Jayden Cripps 0.02% 5000 226 74
Jayden Ford 1.09% 92 126 0.30% 62 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jimmy Zheng 0.81% 123 41 54
Jimmy Zheng 0.81% 123 41 54
Joel Mitchell 0.93% 108 501 0.70% 10 -0.7 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Doull 3.10% 32 26 20
Joseph Owen 0.30% 333 276 49
Josh Armstrong 1.79% 56 31 20
Josh Clarke 0.31% 323 251 74
Joshua Holbrook 0.02% 5000 351 62
Junior Moses 0.00% 10000 83
Justin Wungen 0.00% 10000 2001 107
Jye Pickin 1.59% 63 81 0.40% Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kameron Williams 0.69% 145 151 56
Kieran Vogels 0.00% 10000 501 97
Lachlan Aylen 0.30% 333 301 20
Lachlan Barker 1.62% 62 56 10
Liam Georgiadis 0.14% 714 601 56
Lincoln Tighe 2.15% 47 41 2
Louis Dobbelaar 1.23% 81 41 10
Lucas Higgins 0.69% 145 126 38
Mako Thompson 0.99% 101 151 0.30% 16 -0.3 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Dowling 0.08% 1250 501 74
Matthew Cleary 0.00% 10000 151 74
Max Charles 0.29% 345 351 30
Max Ford 0.01% 10000 301 34
Morgan Annato 0.05% 2000 1001 34
Nathan Barbieri 2.99% 33 15 16
Nathan Jordi 0.00% 10000 83
Neville Gabriel 0.00% 10000 111
Nicholas Coyle 0.00% 10000 2001 101
Peter Cooke 1.66% 60 41 25
Peter Martin 0.08% 1250 301 100
Peter Murgkerhegl 0.00% 10000 2001 109
Peter Stoddart 0.00% 10000 2001 105
Phoenix Campbell 1.93% 52 51 90
Quinnton Croker 3.96% 25 16 25
Ranish Maharaj 0.00% 10000 103
Rhys Thomas 0.05% 2000 751 67
Rizal Banta 0.00% 10000 2001 108
Samuel Slater 0.91% 110 131 0.10% 74 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Scotty Kennon 9.56% 10 26 5.90% 38 -5.9 Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Silvester Tan 0.00% 10000 201 93
Soti Dinki 0.00% 10000 1501 90
Souta Fujii 0.00% 10000 251 56
Stanley Eric 0.00% 10000 99
Steven Vail 0.00% 10000 601 83
Tim Hart 2.65% 38 23 113
Ty Gingerich 0.05% 2000 111 67
Tyler Griggs 0.00% 10000 301 93
Tyler Wood 2.16% 46 29 30
Vagi James 0.00% 10000 1501 90
Victor Terry 0.00% 10000 1251 102
Viraj Garewal 0.23% 435 301 52
Wally Ilake 0.00% 10000 1501 93
Wenchton Yakapus 0.00% 10000 1251 83
Wil Daibarra 0.15% 667 201 10
Will Florimo 3.59% 28 31 0.40% 2 1 Spreadex: 30/1, 6pl, 1/5
William Bruyeres 0.59% 169 111 30
Zach Ion 0.01% 10000 451 2
Zachary Maxwell 0.27% 370 301 96

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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