Simulation Results: New Zealand Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wilkin 0.52% 192 126 54
Adam Bland 0.94% 106 176 0.40% 69 -0.4 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ahmad Baig 0.28% 357 176 69
Andrew Campbell 0.33% 303 351 83
Andrew Kelly 0.36% 278 351 0.10% 38 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrew Martin 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 69 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Anthony Quayle 1.29% 78 67 69
Austen Truslow 0.43% 233 201 29
Austin Bautista 0.28% 357 276 29
Ben Campbell 3.78% 26 12 58
Ben Eccles 0.48% 208 201 83
Ben Henkel 0.19% 526 501 59
Ben Wharton 0.10% 1000 801 59
Berry Henson 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 15 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bio Kim 0.08% 1250 501 59
Blake Proverbs 0.46% 217 276 0.10% 104 -0.1 Paddy Power: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brad Kennedy 1.94% 52 51 83
Braden Becker 0.17% 588 501 69
Brendan Jones 0.36% 278 351 0.10% 54 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett Rankin 0.27% 370 501 0.10% 69 -0.1 Unibet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett Rumford 0.60% 167 226 0.20% 64 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cameron John 1.13% 88 111 0.20% 50 -0.2 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Changwoo Lee 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 104 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Hillier 0.13% 769 501 148
Charlie Lindh 0.32% 313 176 104
Charlie Robbins 0.02% 5000 2501 135
Charlie Wi 0.26% 385 1001 0.20% 126 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Crabtree 0.17% 588 1501 0.10% 135 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Connor McDade 0.24% 417 601 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Connor McKinney 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 40 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cooper Moore 0.00% 10000 401 83
Corey Lamb 0.23% 435 276 40
Cory Crawford 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 54 -0.1 William Hill: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Curtis Luck 1.85% 54 41 40
Daisuke Kataoka 0.24% 417 351 64
Daniel Gale 0.65% 154 251 0.30% 26 -0.3 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Hillier 1.85% 54 21 12
Danny Lee 1.00% 100 101 139
Danny Masrin 0.02% 5000 1001 126
Darcy Brereton 0.16% 625 501 69
David Micheluzzi 3.31% 30 29 29
Denzel Ieremia 0.34% 294 251 29
Deyen Lawson 0.60% 167 226 0.20% 83 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.07% 1429 139
Dodge Kemmer 0.17% 588 501 50
Dongmin Lee 0.25% 400 151 29
Dong-Woo Kang 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 69 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Gardner 0.12% 833 1501 0.10% 8 -0.1 QuinnBet: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Elvis Smylie 1.24% 81 56 8
Galam Jeon 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 118 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gunn Charoenkul 1.17% 85 81 59
Guntaek Koh 0.31% 323 201 5
Hakhyung Kim 0.21% 476 351 29
Harrison Crowe 0.32% 313 276 15
Ian Snyman 1.53% 65 81 0.30% 2 2.85 QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Buchanan 0.48% 208 176 139
Jack Thompson 0.51% 196 201 2
Jak Carter 0.86% 116 151 0.20% 118 -0.2 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jake McLeod 1.34% 75 67 50
Jake Meenhorst 0.15% 667 1501 0.10% 69 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Conran 0.08% 1250 1001 118
James Gibellini 0.13% 769 1001 139
James Marchesani 0.27% 370 351 8
James Tauariki 0.00% 10000 1001 66
Jared Du Toit 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 135 -0.1 Unibet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jasper Stubbs 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 118 -0.1 William Hill: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jayden Ford 0.11% 909 751 139
Jazz Janewattananond 0.34% 294 151 69
Jediah Morgan 0.57% 175 176 21
Jeunghun Wang 0.81% 123 71 146
John Catlin 1.63% 61 29 7
John Senden 0.05% 2000 1001 153
Jordan Doull 0.70% 143 151 83
Jordan Zunic 0.59% 169 351 0.30% 118 -0.3 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jose Toledo 0.38% 263 176 104
Josh Armstrong 0.13% 769 601 49
Josh Geary 1.56% 64 51 40
Josh Younger 0.19% 526 601 69
Joshua Bai 0.34% 294 1001 0.20% 83 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Greer 0.10% 1000 751 50
Justin Quiban 0.44% 227 151 104
Justin Warren 0.38% 263 301 15
Jye Pickin 0.32% 313 351 104
Kade McBride 0.50% 200 276 0.10% 21 -0.1 Paddy Power: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kazuki Higa 1.96% 51 34 2
Kerry Mountcastle 0.56% 179 151 153
Kevin Yuan 0.84% 119 81 26
Kingston Taylor-Voyle 0.00% 10000 1501 156
Kodai Ichihara 0.30% 333 351 148
Kota Kaneko 0.96% 104 101 83
Kyle Michel 0.13% 769 751 83
Lachlan Barker 0.28% 357 401 104
Lawry Flynn 0.23% 435 401 83
Louis Dobbelaar 0.22% 455 351 83
Lucas Herbert 8.49% 12 7 21
Luke Kwon 0.13% 769 1001 83
M.J. Maguire 0.69% 145 67 12
Mark Brown 0.08% 1250 751 40
Mason Lee 0.01% 10000 1001 139
Matias Sanchez 0.51% 196 226 0.10% 83 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Griffin 0.67% 149 226 0.20% 147 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maverick Antcliff 0.69% 145 81 83
Micah Dickinson 0.00% 10000 2001 150
Michael Hendry 1.42% 70 34 21
Miguel Carballo 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 118 -0.1 William Hill: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miguel Tabuena 0.99% 101 51 21
Mikiya Akutsu 0.45% 222 126 104
Mikumu Horikawa 1.16% 86 67 104
Nathan Barbieri 0.60% 167 176 104
Nick Voke 2.90% 34 21 83
Pavit Tangkamolprasert 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 40 -0.1 Skybet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Phoenix Campbell 0.37% 270 251 139
Pieter Zwart 0.02% 5000 1501 118
Quinnton Croker 0.74% 135 111 83
Ren Yonezawa 0.63% 159 151 29
Robby Turnbull 0.07% 1429 1001 155
Ryan Peake 0.30% 333 201 1
Ryo Ishikawa 0.85% 118 81 68
Ryosuke Kinoshita 1.60% 63 46 40
Sam Brazel 0.47% 213 501 0.30% 12 -0.3 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Jones 0.98% 102 61 15
Sampson Zheng 0.83% 120 40
Scott Hend 0.69% 145 151 26
Simon Hawkes 0.16% 625 751 38
Soon-Sang Hong 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 83 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Lewton 0.66% 152 101 66
Steven Alker 1.48% 68 81 0.20% 59 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Oh 0.00% 10000 2001 126
Sungjin Yeo 0.12% 833 1001 126
Taehoon Ok 0.52% 192 151 69
Taichi Kho 0.85% 118 51 8
Taichi Nabetani 0.72% 139 176 0.20% 15 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taiga Sugihara 0.30% 333 351 104
Taihei Sato 1.16% 86 81 150
Taiki Yoshida 0.49% 204 161 83
Takahiro Hataji 1.78% 56 81 0.60% 126 -0.6 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takumi Murakami 0.13% 769 501 135
Tanapat Pichaikool 0.35% 286 126 126
Tatsunori Shogenji 0.50% 200 101 126
Thomas Power Horan 0.41% 244 451 0.20% 29 -0.2 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tim Hart 0.33% 303 351 83
Todd Baek 0.27% 370 276 69
Todd Sinnott 0.66% 152 151 83
Tomoyo Ikemura 3.03% 33 41 0.60% 104 -0.6 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Smyth 2.40% 42 21 15
Tyler Hodge 0.13% 769 1001 104
Tyler Wood 0.29% 345 351 69
Wade Ormsby 0.72% 139 81 29
Wen-Chong Liang 0.05% 2000 1251 150
William Bruyeres 0.05% 2000 1501 126
Yosuke Asaji 0.48% 208 226 104
Yuki Inamori 0.87% 115 101 83
Yusaku Hosono 0.69% 145 126 118
Yuwa Kosaihira 0.28% 357 351 126
Zach Murray 0.24% 417 501 40
Zhengkai Bai 0.00% 10000 151 6

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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