Simulation Results: The National Tournament

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Townsend	0.02%	5000	301		63
Adam Brady	0.00%	10000	451		63
Adam Coull	4.87%	21	61	3.30%	56	-3.3	PaddyPower: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Hatch	0.02%	5000	351		56
Aiden Didone	0.03%	3333	276		28
Alexander Simpson	0.03%	3333	301		48
Andre Lautee	0.02%	5000	161		28
Andrew Campbell	1.83%	55	61	0.20%	63	-0.2	Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Evans	0.04%	2500	126		28
Andrew Martin	1.56%	64	41		48
Ben Eccles	0.86%	116	34		41
Ben Henkel	0.07%	1429	126		24
Blake Proverbs	0.27%	370	101		54
Blake Windred	0.25%	400	131		16
Braden Becker	0.09%	1111	86		16
Brady Watt	2.49%	40	81	1.30%	12	-1.3	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett Rankin	0.78%	128	91		61
Cameron Harlock	0.37%	270	96		24
Cameron John	9.36%	11	13	1.80%	1	13.5	Spreadex: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Malec	0.04%	2500	176		63
Connor McDade	0.17%	588	131		41
Cooper Eccleston	0.00%	10000	551		68
Corey Lamb	0.08%	1250	301		7
Daniel Gale	4.65%	22	21		2
Darcy Brereton	1.55%	65	71	0.10%	74	-0.1	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Declan O'Donovan	5.54%	18	12		4
Deyen Lawson	0.02%	5000	161		12
Dillon Hart	0.04%	2500	401		51
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.26%	385			28
Douglas Klein	2.60%	38	31		28
Dylan Gardner	0.05%	2000	176		28
Haydn Barron	11.04%	9.1	13	3.60%	16	-3.6	Skybet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Munro	0.09%	1111	161		28
Jack Thompson	4.72%	21	19		8
Jak Carter	0.20%	500	176		71
James Conran	0.03%	3333	161		50
James Marchesani	4.89%	20	23	0.60%	16	-0.6	Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Mee	0.03%	3333	226		24
Jared Edwards	2.52%	40	56	0.70%	54	-0.7	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Hong	1.11%	90	56		37
Jay Mackenzie	0.73%	137	36		24
Jayden Ford	0.05%	2000	376		46
Jeffrey Guan	0.98%	102	71		71
Jimmy Zheng	2.43%	41	51	0.50%	37	-0.5	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Mitchell	0.01%	10000	451		74
John Lyras	1.22%	82	23		16
Josh Armstrong	0.31%	323	61		8
Josh Younger	0.44%	227	86		12
Jye Pickin	0.12%	833	161		56
Kerry Mountcastle	2.26%	44	23		8
Kevin Yuan	5.44%	18	19	0.20%	28	-0.2	Bet365: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lachlan Barker	2.77%	36	23		12
Lincoln Tighe	0.01%	10000	251		52
Louis Dobbelaar	0.12%	833	51		4
Lucas Higgins	0.00%	10000	251		56
Mako Thompson	0.15%	667	111		37
Mason Lee	0.00%	10000	451		70
Matias Sanchez	3.46%	29	23		3
Matthew Griffin	0.83%	120	51		16
Nathan Barbieri	4.53%	22	26	0.70%	8	-0.7	Spreadex: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nathan Page	0.01%	10000	176		41
Patrick Healy	0.02%	5000	351		61
Quinnton Croker	3.71%	27	23		47
Sam Brazel	0.34%	294	91		28
Samuel Slater	0.01%	10000	226		76
Thomas Power Horan	0.33%	303	81		41
Tim Hart	0.27%	370	131		41
Todd Sinnott	3.66%	27	51	1.70%	4	5.95	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Limon	0.00%	10000	1001		71
Ty Gingerich	0.54%	185	151		37
Tyler Wood	0.38%	263	81		56
Wil Daibarra	0.00%	10000	451		52
Will Florimo	2.07%	48	36		16
William Bruyeres	0.01%	10000	301		68
Zach Ion	0.04%	2500	176		63
Zach Murray	0.17%	588	91		16

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Townsend	0.35%	286	101		53
Adam Brady	0.22%	455	126		72
Adam Coull	3.32%	30	46	1.20%	62	-1.2	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Hatch	0.38%	263	141		66
Aiden Didone	0.41%	244	111		12
Alexander Simpson	0.36%	278	91		21
Andre Lautee	0.30%	333	86		46
Andrew Campbell	2.02%	50	36		46
Andrew Evans	0.45%	222	91		32
Andrew Martin	1.92%	52	41		21
Ben Eccles	1.56%	64	31		32
Ben Henkel	0.57%	175	61		5
Blake Proverbs	0.92%	109	67		32
Blake Windred	0.93%	108	71		12
Braden Becker	0.56%	179	61		32
Brady Watt	2.33%	43	61	0.70%	21	-0.7	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett Rankin	1.44%	69	61		62
Cameron Harlock	1.03%	97	61		53
Cameron John	4.64%	22	17		21
Chris Malec	0.44%	227	81		46
Connor McDade	0.79%	127	71		32
Cooper Eccleston	0.17%	588	151		21
Corey Lamb	0.53%	189	91		5
Daniel Gale	3.22%	31	26		32
Darcy Brereton	1.94%	52	41		75
Declan O'Donovan	3.46%	29	19		66
Deyen Lawson	0.31%	323	71		12
Dillon Hart	0.41%	244	126		21
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.90%	111			32
Douglas Klein	2.36%	42	31		32
Dylan Gardner	0.48%	208	101		21
Haydn Barron	5.01%	20	19		53
Jack Munro	0.61%	164	81		32
Jack Thompson	3.30%	30	23		53
Jak Carter	0.86%	116	101		66
James Conran	0.43%	233	71		12
James Marchesani	3.29%	30	23		12
James Mee	0.40%	250	101		32
Jared Edwards	2.39%	42	41		32
Jason Hong	1.61%	62	46		46
Jay Mackenzie	1.36%	74	34		46
Jayden Ford	0.51%	196	126		12
Jeffrey Guan	1.53%	65	56		62
Jimmy Zheng	2.35%	43	41		32
Joel Mitchell	0.23%	435	151		73
John Lyras	1.78%	56	26		2
Josh Armstrong	0.93%	108	41		1
Josh Younger	1.14%	88	61		12
Jye Pickin	0.63%	159	81		53
Kerry Mountcastle	2.30%	43	23		21
Kevin Yuan	3.42%	29	23		21
Lachlan Barker	2.46%	41	26		21
Lincoln Tighe	0.20%	500	81		32
Louis Dobbelaar	0.65%	154	41		32
Lucas Higgins	0.17%	588	81		53
Mako Thompson	0.74%	135	61		2
Mason Lee	0.20%	500	151		53
Matias Sanchez	2.84%	35	23		5
Matthew Griffin	1.46%	68	41		4
Nathan Barbieri	3.08%	32	31		21
Nathan Page	0.25%	400	91		62
Patrick Healy	0.26%	385	151		73
Quinnton Croker	2.85%	35	29		5
Sam Brazel	0.96%	104	61		5
Samuel Slater	0.28%	357	86		76
Thomas Power Horan	1.01%	99	51		66
Tim Hart	0.84%	119	71		53
Todd Sinnott	2.84%	35	34		5
Tom Limon	0.09%	1111			66
Ty Gingerich	1.26%	79	76		12
Tyler Wood	1.07%	93	61		53
Wil Daibarra	0.09%	1111	176		12
Will Florimo	2.13%	47	36		5
William Bruyeres	0.25%	400	91		66
Zach Ion	0.41%	244	81		46
Zach Murray	0.82%	122	61		46

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Haydn Barron	11.04%	9.1	13	3.60%	16	-2	Skybet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Adam Coull	4.87%	21	61	3.30%	56	-2	PaddyPower: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Cameron John	9.36%	11	13	1.80%	1	15	Spreadex: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Adam Coull	3.32%	30	46	1.20%	62	-1.5	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Brady Watt	2.33%	43	61	0.70%	21	-1.5	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.