Simulation Results: The National Tournament

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Pike 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 110 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aaron Townsend 0.40% 250 276 56
Aaron Wilkin 0.95% 105 46 33
Adam Bland 1.68% 60 51 33
Adam Brady 0.52% 192 131 65
Aiden Didone 0.16% 625 751 56
Alex Edge 0.14% 714 751 110
Alexander Simpson 0.25% 400 451 65
Andre Lautee 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 23 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Campbell 0.88% 114 81 40
Andrew Evans 1.41% 71 61 35
Andrew Kelly 0.73% 137 121 83
Andrew Martin 1.41% 71 51 3
Andrew Richards 0.10% 1000 1001 115
Anthony Choat 0.07% 1429 1501 65
Anthony Quayle 3.46% 29 15 2
Ashley Hall 0.11% 909 301 105
Bailey Arnott 0.05% 2000 1501 110
Ben Eccles 1.24% 81 51 110
Ben Ferguson 0.11% 909 1501 56
Ben Henkel 0.40% 250 251 35
Ben Wharton 0.15% 667 301 14
Billy Dowling 0.51% 196 111 6
Blake Proverbs 0.84% 119 126 124
Blake Windred 0.86% 116 131 0.10% 40 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Braden Becker 0.81% 123 126 23
Bradley Kivimets 0.05% 2000 1001 97
Brady Watt 1.00% 100 71 28
Brett Rankin 0.77% 130 151 0.10% 110 -0.1 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chris Crabtree 0.17% 588 751 105
Christopher Fan 0.32% 313 501 0.10% 105 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christopher Wood 0.58% 172 121 97
Connor McKinney 0.84% 119 131 0.10% Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Corey Lamb 0.42% 238 111 20
Cory Crawford 0.91% 110 111 83
Curtis Luck 3.40% 29 17 3
D.J. Loypur 0.10% 1000 601 65
Damon Stephenson 0.02% 5000 1001 46
Dan Cousins 0.00% 10000 2001 97
Daniel Gill 0.06% 1667 1001 11
Darcy Boyd 0.08% 1250 1001 121
Darcy Brereton 0.58% 172 101 56
David McKenzie 0.21% 476 351 83
David Micheluzzi 7.41% 13 13 20
Declan O'Donovan 0.41% 244 46 23
Denzel Ieremia 1.53% 65 36 14
Deyen Lawson 0.71% 141 121 94
Dillon Hart 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 97 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.24% 417 83
Douglas Klein 1.21% 83 91 0.10% 56 -0.1 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Gardner 0.44% 227 181 97
Edward Donoghue 0.27% 370 401 105
Gavin Fairfax 1.18% 85 176 0.60% 28 -0.6 Paddy Power: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
George Worrall 0.08% 1250 65
Harrison Crowe 2.26% 44 23 1
Haydn Barron 1.27% 79 51 46
Jack Buchanan 1.55% 65 56 6
Jack Harrison 0.16% 625 601 97
Jack McLeod 0.09% 1111 751 105
Jack Munro 0.89% 112 81 23
Jack Pountney 0.06% 1667 1001 119
Jack Thompson 1.65% 61 21 65
Jak Carter 1.51% 66 51 83
Jake McLeod 2.81% 36 26 12
James Conran 0.38% 263 121 40
James Gibellini 0.28% 357 1001 0.20% 28 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Hydes 0.26% 385 751 0.10% 14 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Marchesani 0.91% 110 61 20
James Mee 0.13% 769 751 94
Jarryd Felton 0.43% 233 226 23
Jason Norris 0.67% 149 226 0.20% 14 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jasper Stubbs 0.84% 119 126 40
Jay Mackenzie 0.33% 303 601 0.20% 46 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jediah Morgan 1.91% 52 34 12
Joel Mitchell 0.16% 625 56
Jordan Doull 2.03% 49 31 79
Jordan Zunic 1.09% 92 121 0.30% 83 -0.3 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Josh Armstrong 0.51% 196 126 46
Josh Geary 2.59% 39 29 14
Josh Younger 0.63% 159 201 0.10% 65 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Warren 1.01% 99 81 124
Jye Pickin 0.83% 120 81 83
Kade McBride 1.35% 74 41 65
Kerry Mountcastle 1.20% 83 51 14
Kevin Yuan 1.28% 78 29 50
Kyle Michel 0.62% 161 101 65
Lawry Flynn 0.45% 222 151 83
Leon Trenerry 0.00% 10000 2001 122
Levi Sclater 0.11% 909 1001 79
Liam Georgiadis 0.03% 3333 1501 97
Liam Reaper 0.03% 3333 1501 65
Lincoln Tighe 0.83% 120 151 0.20% 52 -0.2 QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Louis Dobbelaar 0.31% 323 131 35
Lucas Higgins 0.28% 357 351 55
Marcus Fraser 0.16% 625 1501 0.10% 56 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matias Sanchez 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 56 -0.1 Paddy Power: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Lever 0.03% 3333 1501 52
Matthew Siporin 0.04% 2500 2001 115
Maverick Antcliff 1.56% 64 34 6
Max Charles 0.06% 1667 1001 65
Michael Hendry 2.76% 36 29 28
Nathan Barbieri 2.26% 44 41 83
Nathan Page 0.45% 222 81 79
Neven Basic 0.10% 1000 501 83
Phoenix Campbell 0.84% 119 151 0.20% 115 -0.2 QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quinnton Croker 1.88% 53 41 3
Riley Taylor 0.02% 5000 1001 115
Ryan Peake 0.69% 145 51 10
Sam Brazel 1.76% 57 76 0.50% 40 -0.5 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Scott Strange 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 83 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shae Wools-Cobb 0.47% 213 161 97
Siddharth Nadimpalli 0.14% 714 1501 0.10% 65 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Simon Hawkes 0.29% 345 226 50
Sungjin Yeo 0.27% 370 276 79
Thomas Power Horan 1.25% 80 71 65
Tim Hart 0.70% 143 101 40
Tim Walker 0.11% 909 501 56
Toby Walker 0.11% 909 451 28
Todd Sinnott 2.00% 50 51 6
Tyler Hodge 1.11% 90 76 35
Tyler Wood 1.22% 82 91 0.10% 35 -0.1 Paddy Power: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Florimo 2.38% 42 51 0.40% 94 -0.4 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
William Bruyeres 0.09% 1111 751 65
Zach Ion 0.00% 10000 1001 119
Zach Murray 0.72% 139 161 0.10% 54 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zachary Maxwell 0.13% 769 1251 0.10% 122 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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