Simulation Results: New Zealand Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Bland	0.39%	256	201		100
Adam Brady	0.00%	10000	2001		146
Alexander Simpson	0.00%	10000	1501		86
Andrew Campbell	0.22%	455	201		127
Andrew Evans	0.07%	1429	276		142
Andrew Martin	0.28%	357	151		53
Anthony Quayle	1.41%	71	46		111
Austen Truslow	2.50%	40	29		23
Ben Campbell	2.95%	34	26		36
Ben Eccles	0.06%	1667	601		155
Ben Henkel	0.04%	2500	501		111
Berry Henson	0.11%	909	251		70
Bio Kim	0.04%	2500	201		53
Blake Proverbs	0.05%	2000	601		67
Brad Kennedy	0.49%	204	151		36
Brady Watt	0.71%	141	301	0.40%	111	-0.4	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendan Jones	0.10%	1000	301		111
Brett Rankin	0.15%	667	751		14
Cameron Harlock	0.01%	10000	2001		138
Cameron John	0.97%	103	51		134
Chan Choi	0.05%	2000	251		14
Charles Porter	0.15%	667	81		151
Charlie Lindh	0.30%	333	121		6
Chase Koepka	0.32%	313	61		70
Chris Malec	0.01%	10000	1501		154
Christopher Wood	0.14%	714	351		100
Connor McKinney	0.30%	333	201		27
Cooper Moore	0.86%	116	161	0.20%	111	-0.2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Corey Lamb	0.01%	10000	1001		151
Cory Crawford	0.46%	217	201		49
Curtis Luck	3.51%	28	29	0.10%	23	-0.1	Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Gale	1.27%	79	67		111
Daniel Hillier	15.86%	6.3	11	7.40%	1	46.25	Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcy Brereton	0.37%	270	151		68
Declan O'Donovan	1.33%	75	67		27
Denzel Ieremia	0.12%	833	301		100
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.07%	1429			86
Dominic Foos	0.05%	2000	201		86
Dongmin Lee	0.03%	3333	351		127
Douglas Klein	0.84%	119	151	0.20%	70	-0.2	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doyeob Mun	0.05%	2000	201		31
Dylan Gardner	0.12%	833	401		146
Ervin Chang	0.09%	1111	126		111
Gavin Fairfax	0.05%	2000	751		36
Gunn Charoenkul	0.07%	1429	251		100
Hakhyung Kim	0.10%	1000	201		86
Harrison Crowe	0.21%	476	176		27
Harry Bateman	0.00%	10000	751		134
Haydn Barron	1.27%	79	67		19
Hiroshi Iwata	0.21%	476	81		100
Hongtaek Kim	0.07%	1429	301		14
Ian Snyman	1.77%	56	46		86
Inhoi Hur	0.00%	10000	601		70
Jack Buchanan	0.18%	556	201		53
Jack Munro	0.01%	10000	501		138
Jack Thompson	1.10%	91	101	0.10%	27	-0.1	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jak Carter	0.04%	2500	751		86
Jake McLeod	2.33%	43	36		61
Jake Meenhorst	0.02%	5000	601		150
James Conran	0.02%	5000	751		58
James Hydes	0.00%	10000	1501		53
James Marchesani	0.90%	111	67		111
James Piot	0.94%	106	101		86
Jared Edwards	0.41%	244	201		86
Jason Norris	0.00%	10000	1501		138
Jasper Stubbs	0.00%	10000	751		111
Jay Mackenzie	0.02%	5000	401		10
Jayden Ford	0.03%	3333	1251		127
Jed Morgan	0.32%	313	201		86
Jeffrey Guan	0.27%	370	161		86
Jimmy Zheng	0.37%	270	111		70
John Catlin	1.14%	88	67		111
Jordan Doull	0.32%	313	111		70
Jordan Zunic	0.07%	1429	501		138
Jose Toledo	0.08%	1250	251		69
Josh Edgar	0.00%	10000	1501		70
Josh Geary	0.30%	333	86		111
Justin Quiban	0.02%	5000	251		36
Jye Pickin	0.03%	3333	501		70
Karandeep Kochhar	0.25%	400	251		61
Kazuki Higa	1.69%	59	34		36
Kazuma Kobori	4.89%	20	26	1.10%	19	-1.1	Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kerry Mountcastle	0.22%	455	91		3
Kevin Na	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	19	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Yuan	1.06%	94	67		70
Kit Bittle	0.01%	10000	2001		86
Kyle Stanley	0.00%	10000			111
Kyo Morishita	0.01%	10000	1001		111
Lachlan Barker	0.36%	278	131		70
Lincoln Tighe	0.01%	10000	1251		142
Louis Dobbelaar	0.24%	417	176		44
Lucas Herbert	12.53%	8	11	3.80%	2	2.85	Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Kwon	0.01%	10000	1001		151
M.J. Maguire	1.17%	85	56		23
Mako Thompson	0.10%	1000	351		100
Mark Brown	0.14%	714	401		61
Matias Sanchez	0.46%	217	126		31
Matthew Griffin	0.58%	172	76		134
Maverick Antcliff	0.15%	667	176		70
Maximilian Rottluff	0.64%	156	91		49
Michael Hendry	1.27%	79	81		10
Michael Toeke	0.00%	10000	1501		142
Mikiya Akutsu	0.10%	1000	141		49
Mikumu Horikawa	0.84%	119	31		36
Mitchell Kale	0.00%	10000	1501		127
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.19%	526	121		9
Nathan Barbieri	0.53%	189	111		66
Nick Voke	2.76%	36	41	0.30%	53	-0.3	Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Watney	0.06%	1667	201		23
Pavit Tangkamolprasert	1.34%	75	67		44
Phoenix Campbell	0.00%	10000	1501		70
Quinnton Croker	0.45%	222	201		100
Ren Yonezawa	2.02%	50	67	0.50%	6	-0.5	Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricky Kang	0.00%	10000			70
Riki Kawamoto	0.21%	476	56		14
Rintaro Nakano	0.04%	2500	1001		10
Robby Turnbull	0.00%	10000	501		148
Ryan Peake	0.49%	204	201		86
Ryo Katsumata	0.06%	1667	111		127
Ryosuke Kinoshita	0.75%	133	34		10
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.04%	2500	126		148
Sam Brazel	0.18%	556	276		31
Sam Jones	0.22%	455	126		14
Sampson Zheng	0.53%	189			86
Sanghun Shin	0.13%	769	251		31
Sarut Vongchaisit	0.23%	435	126		70
Shiv Kapur	0.01%	10000	751		134
Simon Hawkes	0.01%	10000	751		127
Soonsang Hong	0.01%	10000	751		111
Steven Alker	0.51%	196	151		31
Suguru Shimoke	0.24%	417	86		61
Sungho Lee	0.00%	10000	751		127
Taehoon Ok	0.66%	152	91		36
Taichi Kho	0.82%	122	71		100
Taichi Nabetani	0.30%	333			44
Taihei Sato	0.21%	476	86		86
Taiki Yoshida	0.32%	313	36		58
Taisei Shimizu	0.11%	909	251		44
Tatsunori Shogenji	0.15%	667	61		100
Tim Hart	0.32%	313	351		100
Tim Wilkinson	1.08%	93	161	0.50%	61	-0.5	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Todd Sinnott	0.98%	102	101		49
Tomoyo Ikemura	0.67%	149	151		3
Travis Smyth	4.29%	23	29	0.90%	5	2.7	Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Hodge	0.29%	345	176		44
Tyler Wood	0.06%	1667	201		70
Wade Ormsby	0.79%	127	91		6
Wei-Hsuan Wang	0.55%	182	86		100
Will Florimo	0.13%	769	301		111
William Bruyeres	0.00%	10000	1501		70
Yuki Miya	0.00%	10000	1001		19
Yunseok Kang	0.02%	5000	351		155
Yusaku Hosono	0.14%	714	81		58
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.08%	1250	251		36
Zach Murray	0.10%	1000	301		111
Zhengkai Bai	0.04%	2500	401		142

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Daniel Hillier	15.86%	6.3	11	7.40%	1	12.5	Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Lucas Herbert	12.53%	8	11	3.80%	2	1.5	Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Kazuma Kobori	4.89%	20	26	1.10%	19	-2	Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.