Simulation Results: New Zealand PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Townsend 0.78% 128 501 0.60% 32 -0.6 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aaron Wilkin 1.25% 80 22
Adam Brady 0.84% 119 161 0.20% 13 -0.2 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Aiden Didone 0.28% 357 751 0.10% 118 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alex Edge 0.17% 588 751 53
Alexander Simpson 0.56% 179 251 0.20% 53 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andre Lautee 0.27% 370 601 0.10% 89 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Evans 1.01% 99 141 0.30% 15 -0.3 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrew Henare 0.00% 10000 1501 121
Andrew Kelly 1.12% 89 111 0.20% 22 -0.2 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrew Martin 1.30% 77 76
Andrew Richards 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 51 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anthony Quayle 3.11% 32 19 4
Austen Truslow 2.14% 47 51 0.20% 63 -0.2 QuinnBet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Bautista 1.00% 100 51 15
Ben Henkel 0.66% 152 151 75
Blake Windred 0.96% 104 141 0.30% 121 -0.3 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Braden Becker 0.68% 147 151 110
Bradley Kivimets 0.09% 1111 1001 52
Brady Watt 1.40% 71 91 0.30% 7 -0.3 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett Allan 0.00% 10000 1001 63
Byung-Jun Kim 0.24% 417 115
Cameron Harlock 0.07% 1429 451 15
Cameron John 2.55% 39 26 15
Cameron Jones 0.05% 2000 1001 110
Canon Claycomb 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 99 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chang Gi Lee 0.32% 313 276 32
Changwoo Lee 0.55% 182 301 0.20% 75 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Smail 0.03% 3333 351 105
Chas Craig 0.00% 10000 1001 99
Chris Crabtree 0.44% 227 751 0.30% 75 -0.3 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christopher Fan 0.46% 217 501 0.30% 75 -0.3 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Colin Andrade 0.00% 10000 1001 130
Connor McDade 1.06% 94 161 0.40% 53 -0.4 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Connor McKinney 1.24% 81 67 63
Cooper Moore 0.47% 213 101 32
Cory Crawford 1.91% 52 67 0.40% 75 -0.4 Paddy Power: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Craig Mitchell 0.00% 10000 1001 125
D.J. Loypur 0.18% 556 601 105
Darcy Brereton 0.63% 159 151 22
Denzel Ieremia 1.11% 90 41 7
Dillon Hart 0.52% 192 351 0.20% 28 -0.2 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.37% 270 75
Dodge Kemmer 0.62% 161 141 53
Dominic Barson 0.08% 1250 501 63
Dominic Brettkelly 0.00% 10000 110
Dong-Woo Kang 0.68% 147 251 0.30% Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Douglas Holloway 0.00% 10000 1001 46
Dylan Gardner 0.49% 204 161 75
Ethan Jones 0.00% 10000 1501 118
Gavin Fairfax 0.94% 106 501 0.70% 22 -0.7 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hakhyung Kim 0.94% 106 56 105
Hamish Robertson 0.00% 10000 121
Harrison Crowe 1.60% 63 51 28
Jack Buchanan 1.46% 68 61 15
Jack Chrystie 0.01% 10000 1501 125
Jack McLeod 0.12% 833 751 89
Jack Munro 1.03% 97 81 46
Jack Pountney 0.08% 1250 751 75
Jack Van Prehn 0.00% 10000 751 99
Jak Carter 2.04% 49 51 0.10% 13 -0.1 QuinnBet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jake McLeod 3.04% 33 19 15
Jake Meenhorst 0.68% 147 501 0.50% 63 -0.5 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Conran 0.47% 213 401 0.20% 63 -0.2 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Gibellini 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 75 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Grierson 0.40% 250 601 0.20% 32 -0.2 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Hydes 0.57% 175 351 0.30% 89 -0.3 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Marchesani 1.32% 76 46 45
James Mee 0.17% 588 501 89
James Tauariki 0.25% 400 351 53
Jared Du Toit 0.42% 238 161 75
Jared Edwards 0.21% 476 501 46
Jasper Stubbs 1.30% 77 126 0.50% 50 -0.5 Skybet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jay Mackenzie 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 89 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jayden Ford 0.20% 500 251 42
Jimmy Zheng 0.38% 263 126 63
John Bae 0.00% 10000 1501 110
John Senden 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 127 -0.1 Spreadex: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Zunic 1.31% 76 126 0.50% 32 -0.5 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Josh Armstrong 0.57% 175 176 75
Josh Geary 3.64% 27 13 15
Joshua Greer 0.50% 200 226 0.10% Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Junhyoung Lim 0.00% 10000 99
Justin Warren 1.17% 85 51
Jye Pickin 0.98% 102 101 7
Kade McBride 1.19% 84 51 7
Kerry Mountcastle 1.44% 69 41 2
Kevin Yuan 2.61% 38 19 75
Kieran Muir 0.10% 1000 176 32
Kit Bittle 0.13% 769 1001 89
Kyle Michel 0.54% 185 276 0.20% 32 -0.2 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lachlan Barker 0.91% 110 161 0.30% 53 -0.3 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Liam Georgiadis 0.08% 1250 1001 75
Lincoln Tighe 0.78% 128 141 0.10% 63 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Louis Dobbelaar 0.50% 200 141 32
Lucas Higgins 0.51% 196 451 0.30% 42 -0.3 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
M.J. Maguire 4.27% 23 15 41
Mako Thompson 0.02% 5000 351 22
Mark Brown 0.94% 106 161 0.30% 42 -0.3 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mason Lee 0.11% 909 401 63
Matias Sanchez 1.16% 86 76 89
Matt Tautari 0.00% 10000 89
Matthew Siporin 0.05% 2000 1501 105
Max Charles 0.08% 1250 501 63
Michael Hendry 2.57% 39 13 53
Miguel Carballo 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 75 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Minsoek Park 0.00% 10000 128
Mitchell Kale 0.00% 10000 1001 99
Mitchell Newport 0.00% 10000 1001 105
Nathan Barbieri 1.77% 56 51 7
Nick Voke 5.87% 17 9 22
Patrick Moore 0.00% 10000 1501 118
Phoenix Campbell 1.12% 89 81 53
Pieter Zwart 0.26% 385 751 0.10% 89 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Quinnton Croker 2.13% 47 34 32
Rhys Thomas 0.02% 5000 1001 115
Riley King 0.00% 10000 1001 129
Riley Taylor 0.01% 10000 1501 28
Ryan Peake 1.95% 51 29 63
Sam Brazel 1.59% 63 51 46
Sean Towndrow 0.19% 526 501 99
Shae Wools-Cobb 0.43% 233 501 0.20% 4 8.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Siddharth Nadimpalli 0.25% 400 751 0.10% 63 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soon-Sang Hong 0.43% 233 351 0.10% Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sungjin Yeo 0.63% 159 251 0.20% 28 -0.2 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tim Hart 1.10% 91 101 0.10% 2 1.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Wilkinson 0.61% 164 51 4
Todd Sinnott 1.99% 50 61 0.40% 12 -0.4 Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Hodge 0.59% 169 276 0.20% 1 34.375 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Wood 1.14% 88 71 53
William Bruyeres 0.22% 455 501 53
Zachary Maxwell 0.26% 385 751 0.10% 110 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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