Simulation Results: New Zealand PGA Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Pike	0.01%	10000	751		132
Aaron Townsend	0.08%	1250	501		69
Adam Brady	0.16%	625	601		129
Adam Hatch	0.34%	294	401	0.10%	84	-0.1	Spreadex: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aiden Didone	0.15%	667	501		69
Akira Isayama	0.00%	10000	751		55
Alex Edge	0.01%	10000	751		55
Alexander Simpson	0.10%	1000	501		94
Andre Lautee	0.26%	385	141		103
Andrew Campbell	1.07%	93	67		31
Andrew Evans	0.48%	208	111		84
Andrew Henare	0.00%	10000	1001		55
Andrew Kelly	0.24%	417	601	0.10%	55	-0.1	Spreadex: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Martin	1.84%	54	41		26
Anthony Sharp	0.00%	10000	1001		94
Antony Majstorovic	0.00%	10000	1501		137
Austen Truslow	3.79%	26	15		1
Blake Windred	0.52%	192	301	0.20%	43	-0.2	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brad Shilton	0.00%	10000			94
Braden Becker	0.14%	714	226		115
Bradley Kivimets	0.02%	5000	1501		115
Brady Watt	2.52%	40	126	1.70%	76	-1.7	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Lee	0.00%	10000	1001		125
Brock Healy	0.00%	10000	1001		122
Brodie Ferguson	0.00%	10000	751		108
Cameron Harlock	0.24%	417	501		50
Cameron John	7.83%	13	13	0.10%	52	-0.1	Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Jones	0.00%	10000	1251		132
Champ Ratanakarn	0.00%	10000	1001		94
Chang Gi Lee	0.10%	1000	151		19
Charlie Smail	0.00%	10000	1001		69
Chase Koepka	0.58%	172	41		5
Chris Malec	0.07%	1429	751		48
Colin Andrade	0.00%	10000	1001		76
Connor McDade	0.43%	233	176		55
Cooper Eccleston	0.18%	556	1501	0.10%	115	-0.1	Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cooper Moore	0.01%	10000	401		2
Corey Lamb	0.32%	313	351		108
Craig Hocknull	0.00%	10000	1001		55
Curtis Luck	13.79%	7.3	12	6.00%	16	-6	Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
D.J. Loypur	0.02%	5000	751		94
Dean Kingsbeer	0.00%	10000	1251		125
Declan O'Donovan	2.72%	37	26		12
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.73%	137			26
Dominic Barson	0.01%	10000	751		26
Dominic Brettkelly	0.00%	10000	1001		108
Dongwoo Kang	0.08%	1250	601		129
Dylan Gardner	0.56%	179	176		55
Ethan Jones	0.00%	10000	1001		122
Gareth Paddison	0.08%	1250	301		69
Hakhyung Kim	0.17%	588	51		23
Hamish Murray	0.06%	1667	1251		76
Harrison Crowe	1.16%	86	81		76
Harrison Davis	0.00%	10000	1501		44
Harry Bateman	0.36%	278	301		94
Harry McMillan	0.00%	10000	1251		134
Jack Chrystie	0.00%	10000	1251		136
Jack Holland	0.00%	10000	751		55
Jack Munro	0.24%	417	176		94
Jack Pountney	0.00%	10000	2001		51
Jack Tanner	0.00%	10000	1501		129
Jack Whale	0.00%	10000	1001		137
Jak Carter	0.29%	345	301		48
Jake McLeod	5.18%	19	15		5
Jake Meenhorst	0.03%	3333	401		34
James Conran	0.34%	294	201		103
James Grierson	0.03%	3333	1001		103
James Marchesani	2.11%	47	29		31
James Mee	0.06%	1667	601		31
James Napier	0.00%	10000	1251		137
James Tauariki	0.00%	10000	2001		76
Jared Edwards	0.80%	125	276	0.40%	5	1.925	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Hong	0.86%	116	76		55
Jay Mackenzie	0.26%	385	141		90
Jayden Cripps	0.00%	10000	2501		134
Jayden Ford	0.26%	385	601	0.10%	69	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeffrey Guan	0.96%	104	101		23
Jimmy Zheng	2.11%	47	31		34
Jordan Doull	2.35%	43	23		37
Jordan Zunic	0.32%	313	301		36
Jose De Sousa	0.01%	10000	1001		84
Josh Armstrong	0.28%	357			108
Josh Edgar	0.00%	10000	751		108
Josh Geary	1.47%	68	19		69
Josh Younger	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	26	-0.1	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Holbrook	0.00%	10000	1251		90
Jye Pickin	0.23%	435	351		41
Kerry Mountcastle	0.34%	294	41		5
Kit Bittle	0.01%	10000	1501		41
Kyle Michel	0.18%	556	601		37
Kyle Stanley	0.01%	10000	401		94
Kyo Morishita	0.06%	1667	226		76
Lachlan Barker	1.94%	52	51		37
Lincoln Tighe	0.16%	625	401		55
Louis Dobbelaar	0.40%	250	151		4
Lucas Higgins	0.07%	1429	351		54
Luke O'Sullivan	0.00%	10000	1251		115
M.J. Maguire	0.82%	122	34		3
Mark Brown	0.09%	1111	301		12
Martin Pettigrew	0.00%	10000	1501		84
Mason Lee	0.06%	1667	751		37
Matias Sanchez	2.14%	47	36		26
Matt Dowling	0.00%	10000	1501		108
Matthew Griffin	1.79%	56	41		19
Maverick Antcliff	1.42%	70	81	0.20%	44	-0.2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Hendry	2.65%	38	26		16
Mitchell Kale	0.00%	10000	751		90
Nathan Barbieri	3.33%	30	19		84
Nathan Page	0.13%	769	251		55
Patrick Healy	0.00%	10000	1001		55
Peter Fowler	0.00%	10000	1001
Pieter Zwart	0.00%	10000	401		121
Quinnton Croker	1.01%	99	101		12
Rhys Thomas	0.00%	10000	1001		115
Riki Kauika	0.00%	10000			122
Ryosuke Kinoshita	3.50%	29	8.5
Sam Brazel	0.51%	196	176		23
Sam Howse	0.00%	10000	1001		125
Sam Marsters	0.00%	10000	1001		53
Samuel Slater	0.06%	1667	301		55
Sean Towndrow	0.00%	10000	1001		76
Steven Oh	0.00%	10000	1001		84
Stewart McCaw	0.00%	10000	1251		90
Sungjin Yeo	0.04%	2500	351		22
Thomas Heaton	0.03%	3333			44
Thomas Power Horan	0.56%	179	176		19
Thomas Sims	0.00%	10000	1001		69
Thomas Woods	0.00%	10000	1251		115
Tim Hart	0.64%	156	141		16
Tim Wilkinson	0.62%	161	101		12
Todd Sinnott	2.42%	41	61	0.80%	11	-0.8	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Smyth	12.17%	8.2	12	4.20%	5	-2.8875	Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ty Gingerich	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	94	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Hodge	0.42%	238	86		5
Tyler Wood	0.73%	137	61		55
Wil Daibarra	0.02%	5000	401		108
William Bruyeres	0.04%	2500	301		103
Youn Gyeom	0.00%	10000	751		103
Yuki Miya	0.00%	10000	301		76
Zach Ion	0.14%	714	401
Zach Murray	0.50%	200	141		44
Zachary Maxwell	0.00%	10000	1001		125

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Pike	0.14%	714	201		117
Aaron Townsend	0.32%	313	141		105
Adam Brady	0.61%	164	226	0.20%	85	-0.2	Star Sports: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adam Hatch	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	69	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aiden Didone	0.46%	217	141		25
Akira Isayama	0.00%	10000	101		25
Alex Edge	0.12%	833	161		85
Alexander Simpson	0.45%	222	161		132
Andre Lautee	0.72%	139	76		69
Andrew Campbell	1.53%	65	56		17
Andrew Evans	1.05%	95	76		105
Andrew Henare	0.00%	10000	226		69
Andrew Kelly	0.76%	132	141	0.10%	94	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Martin	1.68%	60	36		25
Anthony Sharp	0.00%	10000	161		58
Antony Majstorovic	0.01%	10000	301		129
Austen Truslow	2.42%	41	26		25
Blake Windred	0.82%	122	126		39
Brad Shilton	0.00%	10000			94
Braden Becker	0.43%	233	101		122
Bradley Kivimets	0.15%	667	301		39
Brady Watt	2.29%	44	71	0.90%	85	-0.9	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Lee	0.02%	5000	226		132
Brock Healy	0.05%	2000	161		105
Brodie Ferguson	0.00%	10000	141		105
Cameron Harlock	0.51%	196	126		39
Cameron John	3.58%	28	26		17
Cameron Jones	0.02%	5000	226		137
Champ Ratanakarn	0.00%	10000	141		94
Chang Gi Lee	0.37%	270	91		5
Charlie Smail	0.03%	3333	226		94
Chase Koepka	1.15%	87	36		11
Chris Malec	0.44%	227	226		25
Colin Andrade	0.03%	3333	226		25
Connor McDade	1.03%	97	81		58
Cooper Eccleston	0.51%	196	301	0.20%	39	-0.2	Star Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cooper Moore	0.22%	455	126		58
Corey Lamb	0.78%	128	141	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Craig Hocknull	0.01%	10000	141		11
Curtis Luck	5.15%	19	23	0.80%	1	6.16	Star Sports: 22/1, 6pl, 1/5
D.J. Loypur	0.20%	500	141		117
Dean Kingsbeer	0.00%	10000	226		122
Declan O'Donovan	1.91%	52	36		17
Dimitrios Papadatos	1.31%	76			69
Dominic Barson	0.18%	556	161		25
Dominic Brettkelly	0.02%	5000	226		122
Dongwoo Kang	0.28%	357	141		117
Dylan Gardner	1.13%	88	101	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ethan Jones	0.00%	10000	161		126
Gareth Paddison	0.45%	222	126		94
Hakhyung Kim	0.47%	213	56		94
Hamish Murray	0.42%	238	276	0.10%	69	-0.1	Star Sports: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harrison Crowe	1.57%	64	71	0.20%	39	-0.2	Star Sports: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harrison Davis	0.12%	833	276		58
Harry Bateman	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	126	-0.1	Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harry McMillan	0.05%	2000	301		135
Jack Chrystie	0.01%	10000	141		117
Jack Holland	0.09%	1111	141		11
Jack Munro	0.69%	145	101		105
Jack Pountney	0.05%	2000	301		58
Jack Tanner	0.10%	1000	301		137
Jack Whale	0.00%	10000	161		139
Jak Carter	0.60%	167	101		94
Jake McLeod	3.44%	29	26		58
Jake Meenhorst	0.31%	323	126		39
James Conran	0.92%	109	81		105
James Grierson	0.19%	526	161		69
James Marchesani	2.21%	45	29		69
James Mee	0.40%	250	141		11
James Napier	0.00%	10000	226		135
James Tauariki	0.01%	10000	301		39
Jared Edwards	1.10%	91	126	0.30%	58	-0.3	Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jason Hong	1.12%	89	71		69
Jay Mackenzie	0.60%	167	81		39
Jayden Cripps	0.02%	5000	401		132
Jayden Ford	0.58%	172	201	0.10%	105	-0.1	Star Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeffrey Guan	1.14%	88	71		17
Jimmy Zheng	1.74%	57	36		5
Jordan Doull	2.27%	44	29		39
Jordan Zunic	0.85%	118	111		39
Jose De Sousa	0.16%	625	161		69
Josh Armstrong	0.76%	132			25
Josh Edgar	0.01%	10000	161		94
Josh Geary	1.37%	73	29		5
Josh Younger	1.30%	77	67		17
Joshua Holbrook	0.05%	2000	301		105
Jye Pickin	0.76%	132	126		11
Kerry Mountcastle	0.71%	141	36		25
Kit Bittle	0.16%	625	276		58
Kyle Michel	0.50%	200	201		25
Kyle Stanley	0.25%	400	141		85
Kyo Morishita	0.42%	238	101		69
Lachlan Barker	2.00%	50	46		5
Lincoln Tighe	0.54%	185	111		69
Louis Dobbelaar	0.96%	104	91		58
Lucas Higgins	0.32%	313	126		25
Luke O'Sullivan	0.00%	10000	161		85
M.J. Maguire	1.04%	96	36		17
Mark Brown	0.32%	313	126		11
Martin Pettigrew	0.00%	10000	276		85
Mason Lee	0.39%	256	226		39
Matias Sanchez	2.16%	46	36		25
Matt Dowling	0.05%	2000	276		85
Matthew Griffin	1.61%	62	34		39
Maverick Antcliff	1.46%	68	51		85
Michael Hendry	2.52%	40	36		58
Mitchell Kale	0.05%	2000	101		39
Nathan Barbieri	2.78%	36	31		69
Nathan Page	0.57%	175	126		69
Patrick Healy	0.11%	909	226		105
Peter Fowler	0.05%	2000	141
Pieter Zwart	0.11%	909	141		69
Quinnton Croker	1.52%	66	76	0.20%	25	-0.2	Star Sports: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rhys Thomas	0.03%	3333	226		105
Riki Kauika	0.00%	10000			94
Ryosuke Kinoshita	2.33%	43	17
Sam Brazel	0.84%	119	91		5
Sam Howse	0.00%	10000	226		129
Sam Marsters	0.00%	10000	226		17
Samuel Slater	0.33%	303	126		85
Sean Towndrow	0.06%	1667	226		58
Steven Oh	0.01%	10000	136		117
Stewart McCaw	0.00%	10000	161		69
Sungjin Yeo	0.27%	370	126		1
Thomas Heaton	0.25%	400			39
Thomas Power Horan	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Sims	0.07%	1429	161		94
Thomas Woods	0.00%	10000	226		129
Tim Hart	0.91%	110	76		5
Tim Wilkinson	0.90%	111	71		25
Todd Sinnott	1.86%	54	51		3
Travis Smyth	4.74%	21	21		39
Ty Gingerich	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	105	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Hodge	0.97%	103	67		39
Tyler Wood	1.21%	83	56		69
Wil Daibarra	0.19%	526	141		94
William Bruyeres	0.40%	250	126		39
Youn Gyeom	0.00%	10000	141		122
Yuki Miya	0.00%	10000	101		105
Zach Ion	0.55%	182	141
Zach Murray	0.83%	120	81		3
Zachary Maxwell	0.09%	1111	226		126

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Curtis Luck	13.79%	7.3	12	6.00%	16	-2	Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Travis Smyth	12.17%	8.2	12	4.20%	5	-1.375	Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Brady Watt	2.52%	40	126	1.70%	76	-2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Brady Watt	2.29%	44	71	0.90%	85	-1	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Curtis Luck	5.15%	19	23	0.80%	1	7.7	Star Sports: 22/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Jared Edwards	1.10%	91	126	0.30%	58	-1	Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Harrison Crowe	1.57%	64	71	0.20%	58	-1	Star Sports: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Quinnton Croker	1.52%	66	76	0.20%	94	-1	Star Sports: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Adam Brady	0.61%	164	226	0.20%	25	-1	Star Sports: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.