Simulation Results: New South Wales Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Pike 0.18% 556 201 141
Aaron Townsend 0.64% 156 301 0.30% 70 -0.3 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Bland 2.47% 40 41 10
Adam Blyth 0.02% 5000 401 56
Adam Brady 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 26 -0.1 William Hill: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Coull 0.00% 10000 276 6
Adam Hatch 0.18% 556 501 56
Aiden Didone 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 56 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alexander Simpson 0.27% 370 251 17
Andre Lautee 0.21% 476 351 77
Andrew Campbell 1.09% 92 67 26
Andrew Evans 0.95% 105 67 44
Andrew Kelly 0.58% 172 176 85
Andrew Martin 1.95% 51 56 0.20% 85 -0.2 Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Anthony Quayle 3.26% 31 19 10
Austin Bautista 1.59% 63 15 20
Ben Eccles 0.58% 172 126 131
Ben Henkel 0.80% 125 101 4
Ben Wharton 0.29% 345 301 85
Billy Dowling 0.69% 145 101 24
Blaike Perkins 0.11% 909 1001 131
Blake Phillips 0.43% 233 91 26
Blake Proverbs 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 85 -0.1 PaddyPower: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blake Windred 1.23% 81 126 0.40% 85 -0.4 BetVictor: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Braden Becker 0.34% 294 176 26
Bradley Kivimets 0.05% 2000 1501 85
Brady Watt 1.67% 60 46 6
Caleb Bovalina 0.09% 1111 1001 126
Cameron Harlock 0.75% 133 91 85
Cameron John 4.48% 22 19 17
Charlie Robbins 0.08% 1250 751 97
Christopher Fan 0.15% 667 601 85
Christopher Malec 0.12% 833 351 26
Christopher Wood 0.78% 128 126 1
Coby Carruthers 0.02% 5000 201 108
Connor McDade 0.49% 204 111 20
Cooper Eccleston 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 40 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cooper Giddings 0.02% 5000 1251 120
Corey Lamb 0.78% 128 51 26
Cory Crawford 1.03% 97 67 5
Daley Loumanis 0.00% 10000 601 112
Daniel Gale 1.72% 58 71 0.30% 10 -0.3 PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Gill 0.21% 476 1501 0.10% 126 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcy Brereton 1.31% 76 126 0.50% 20 -0.5 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcy Mackay 0.00% 10000 751 70
Dean Jamieson 0.01% 10000 1001 116
Declan O'Donovan 0.28% 357 51 26
Deyen Lawson 0.33% 303 351 76
Dillon Hart 0.95% 105 151 0.30% 44 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.29% 345 40
Douglas Klein 2.05% 49 36 10
Dustin White 0.00% 10000 351 97
Dylan Gardner 0.55% 182 251 0.20% 77 -0.2 BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gavin Fairfax 1.13% 88 91 77
Gavin Macpherson 0.00% 10000 501 141
George Giblett 0.00% 10000 501 77
Hamish Murray 0.11% 909 751 85
Harrison Davis 0.01% 10000 401 51
Harry Doig 0.00% 10000 401 131
Harry Whitelock 0.00% 10000 601 70
Hayden Hopewell 0.95% 105 71 77
Haydn Barron 3.72% 27 26 17
Jack Munro 0.71% 141 101 108
Jack Pountney 0.03% 3333 1501 112
Jack Tanner 0.14% 714 751 85
Jak Carter 0.65% 154 111 135
Jake McLeod 2.02% 50 31 56
Jake Riley 0.01% 10000 201 44
James Conran 0.46% 217 126 77
James Hydes 0.19% 526 401 126
James Marchesani 1.26% 79 67 2
James Mee 0.13% 769 501 120
James Tauariki 0.01% 10000 1251 144
Jared Edwards 1.34% 75 151 0.70% 44 -0.7 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaron Leasure 0.27% 370 301 44
Jarryd Felton 0.50% 200 251 0.10% 61 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jason Hong 0.72% 139 91 40
Jason Norris 0.57% 175 176 77
Jay Mackenzie 1.39% 72 23 6
Jayce Hargrove 0.28% 357 401 137
Jayden Cripps 0.02% 5000 1001 120
Jayden Ford 0.55% 182 176 10
Jediah Morgan 1.77% 56 51 120
Jeffrey Guan 1.63% 61 41 85
Jesse Linden 0.00% 10000 401 74
Jimmy Zheng 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 40 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
John Lyras 1.32% 76 81 0.10% 85 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Doull 2.14% 47 51 0.20% 97 -0.2 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Zunic 0.73% 137 251 0.30% 26 -0.3 BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jose De Sousa 0.06% 1667 1001 26
Joseph Owen 0.13% 769 1251 0.10% 97 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Josh Armstrong 0.56% 179 111 63
Josh Geary 1.60% 63 29 24
Josh Younger 0.34% 294 251 26
Joshua Fuller 0.00% 10000 501 97
Joshua Holbrook 0.01% 10000 1001 112
Josiah Edwards 0.12% 833 351 112
Jye Halls 0.11% 909 161 6
Jye Pickin 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 108 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kameron Williams 0.13% 769 201 61
Kayun Mudadana 0.38% 263 101 74
Kerry Mountcastle 2.05% 49 56 0.30% 63 -0.3 BetVictor: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Michel 0.24% 417 401 116
Kyoichiro Yoshinaga 0.00% 10000 501 97
Lachlan Aylen 0.22% 455 751 0.10% 126 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lachlan Barker 1.73% 58 34 63
Lachlan Chamberlain 0.00% 10000 601 116
Leigh McKechnie 0.00% 10000 120
Lincoln Tighe 0.47% 213 151 135
Louis Dobbelaar 0.55% 182 101 141
Lucas Herbert 8.55% 12 10 44
Lucas Higgins 0.12% 833 401 51
Mako Thompson 0.70% 143 151 60
Marcus Fraser 0.40% 250 401 0.20% 108 -0.2 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mason Lee 0.06% 1667 1001 137
Matias Sanchez 2.75% 36 36 26
Matt Dowling 0.05% 2000 2001 68
Matthew Griffin 0.37% 270 151 20
Michael Pearce 0.00% 10000 1001 70
Michael Sim 0.34% 294 71 51
Nathan Barbieri 3.24% 31 17 10
Nathan Page 0.28% 357 161 120
Neven Basic 0.03% 3333 751 97
Nick Flanagan 0.18% 556 301 97
Patrick Healy 0.82% 122 301 0.50% 137 -0.5 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Peter Cooke 0.86% 116 111 51
Phoenix Campbell 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 97 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Riley Taylor 0.07% 1429 601 116
Sam Brazel 0.54% 185 201 26
Samuel Cascio 0.00% 10000 301 97
Samuel Slater 0.32% 313 201 10
Simon Hawkes 0.30% 333 251 26
Souta Fujii 0.02% 5000 1501 137
Thomas Power Horan 1.54% 65 51 51
Ti Fox 0.00% 10000 1251 68
Tim Hart 0.56% 179 111 77
Ty Gingerich 1.76% 57 67 0.30% 44 -0.3 BetVictor: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Hodge 0.62% 161 141 26
Wil Daibarra 0.04% 2500 1001 126
Will Florimo 1.81% 55 56 2
William Bruyeres 0.09% 1111 351 97
Zach Ion 0.42% 238 176 67
Zach Murray 0.64% 156 201 0.10% 63 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zachary Maxwell 0.04% 2500 1501 131

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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