Simulation Results: Heritage Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Townsend	0.01%	10000	401		70
Abel Eduard	0.00%	10000	226		14
Adam Blyth	0.00%	10000	351		111
Adam Brady	0.00%	10000	751		57
Aiden Didone	0.01%	10000	501		29
Alexander Simpson	0.02%	5000	501		70
Andre Lautee	0.03%	3333	251		101
Andrew Campbell	0.46%	217	151		19
Andrew Evans	0.11%	909	151		92
Andrew Kelly	0.02%	5000	501		87
Andrew Martin	1.57%	64	51		57
Ben Eccles	0.83%	120	81		3
Ben Henkel	0.05%	2000	176		101
Ben Wharton	0.01%	10000	251		70
Billy Dowling	0.33%	303	46		77
Blake Phillips	0.02%	5000	176		19
Blake Windred	0.12%	833	301		47
Braden Becker	0.02%	5000	251		29
Bradley Kivimets	0.00%	10000	1001		118
Brady Watt	0.71%	141	201	0.20%	35	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brendan Lawlor	0.00%	10000	1501		101
Brett Rankin	1.19%	84	126	0.40%	87	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cameron Harlock	0.08%	1250	226		19
Cameron John	3.14%	32	29		19
Charlie Robbins	0.00%	10000	1501		101
Chris Malec	0.00%	10000	751		8
Christopher Wood	0.09%	1111	176		115
Connor McDade	0.15%	667	251		47
Cooper Eccleston	0.01%	10000	1001		101
Corey Lamb	0.03%	3333	501		77
Cory Crawford	1.17%	85	81		77
Curtis Luck	7.45%	13	11		8
Daniel Gale	3.48%	29	41	1.10%	43	-1.1	Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Gill	0.00%	10000	1251		77
Darcy Brereton	0.90%	111	101		13
David Micheluzzi	8.16%	12	21	3.60%	29	-3.6	Skybet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Declan O'Donovan	2.06%	49	26		3
Denzel Ieremia	0.36%	278	126		43
Deyen Lawson	0.00%	10000	251		47
Dillon Hart	0.02%	5000	1001		52
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.11%	909			26
Douglas Klein	2.26%	44	41		29
Dylan Gardner	0.05%	2000	226		92
Edward Donoghue	0.00%	10000	501		43
Gavin Fairfax	0.42%	238	176		26
George Worrall	0.00%	10000	501		97
Hamish Farquharson	0.04%	2500	301		77
Hamish Murray	0.01%	10000	501		70
Harrison Davis	0.00%	10000	1001		57
Harry McMillan	0.00%	10000	1001		87
Haydn Barron	5.22%	19	34	2.30%	2	6.44	Boyle Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Holland	0.00%	10000	501		77
Jack Munro	0.02%	5000	351		35
Jack Pountney	0.00%	10000	1251		57
Jack Tanner	0.00%	10000	1251		77
Jack Thompson	5.23%	19	26	1.40%	87	-1.4	Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jak Carter	0.16%	625	201		40
Jake McLeod	6.01%	17	17	0.10%	14	-0.1	Spreadex: 16/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Conran	0.11%	909	201		101
James Marchesani	2.36%	42	36		57
James Mee	0.01%	10000	501		19
Jared Edwards	0.91%	110	91		19
Jason Hong	0.53%	189	126		19
Jasper Stubbs	0.02%	5000	501		52
Jay Mackenzie	0.53%	189	67		40
Jayden Cripps	0.00%	10000	1001		114
Jayden Ford	0.07%	1429	501		87
Jeffrey Guan	0.42%	238	101		35
Jimmy Zheng	1.28%	78	67		70
John Lyras	0.08%	1250	91		8
Jose De Sousa	0.00%	10000	501		101
Joseph Owen	0.00%	10000	1001		92
Josh Armstrong	0.11%	909	126		3
Josh Younger	0.28%	357	141		57
Joshua Holbrook	0.00%	10000	1501		119
Justin Warren	0.03%	3333	176		77
Jye Halls	0.22%	455	86		111
Jye Pickin	0.05%	2000	301		29
Kerry Mountcastle	1.53%	65	29		52
Kevin Yuan	2.86%	35	34		8
Kyle Michel	0.04%	2500	251		52
Lachlan Aylen	0.00%	10000	501		70
Lachlan Barker	2.22%	45	41		14
Liam Georgiadis	0.00%	10000	1001		101
Lincoln Tighe	0.01%	10000	251		77
Louis Dobbelaar	0.10%	1000	71		43
Lucas Higgins	0.00%	10000	251		111
Luke Porritt	0.00%	10000	2001		115
M.J. Maguire	4.13%	24	17		35
Mako Thompson	0.30%	333	176		92
Marcus Fraser	0.01%	10000	1001
Mason Lee	0.01%	10000	501		115
Matias Sanchez	1.51%	66	46		3
Matt Dowling	0.00%	10000	1001		101
Matthew Griffin	1.24%	81	61		57
Michael Hendry	4.00%	25	23		14
Mitchell Smith	0.00%	10000	401		47
Nathan Barbieri	0.86%	116	61		29
Nathan Page	0.05%	2000	176		97
Nick Voke	5.67%	18	17		8
Patrick Healy	0.00%	10000	1251		14
Peter Cooke	0.10%	1000	276		57
Phoenix Campbell	0.00%	10000	1001		70
Quinnton Croker	1.15%	87	101	0.20%	3	1.48	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rhys Granger	0.00%	10000	1001		120
Sam Brazel	0.37%	270	111		57
Samuel Slater	0.00%	10000	251		57
Thomas Power Horan	0.18%	556	201		97
Tim Hart	0.17%	588	201		52
Toby Walker	0.00%	10000	1001		92
Todd Sinnott	1.47%	68	67		57
Travis Smyth	11.67%	8.6	7		47
Ty Gingerich	0.15%	667	301		26
Tyler Wood	0.26%	385	131		57
Wil Daibarra	0.00%	10000	1001		101
Will Florimo	0.68%	147	91		1
William Bruyeres	0.00%	10000	1001		35
Zach Ion	0.01%	10000	276		57
Zach Murray	0.11%	909	151		77
Zachary Maxwell	0.00%	10000	1001		40

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Townsend	0.25%	400	126		64
Abel Eduard	0.00%	10000	141		64
Adam Blyth	0.01%	10000	251		64
Adam Brady	0.12%	833	251		23
Aiden Didone	0.23%	435	176		35
Alexander Simpson	0.28%	357	141		53
Andre Lautee	0.30%	333	111		93
Andrew Campbell	0.99%	101	101		84
Andrew Evans	0.53%	189	76		53
Andrew Kelly	0.34%	294	201		84
Andrew Martin	1.73%	58	46		53
Ben Eccles	1.27%	79	46		35
Ben Henkel	0.43%	233	81		64
Ben Wharton	0.21%	476	151		106
Billy Dowling	0.92%	109	36		64
Blake Phillips	0.24%	417	86		64
Blake Windred	0.56%	179	141		35
Braden Becker	0.29%	345	126		53
Bradley Kivimets	0.05%	2000	201		106
Brady Watt	1.30%	77	91	0.20%	35	-0.2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendan Lawlor	0.00%	10000	501		93
Brett Rankin	1.60%	63	71	0.20%	93	-0.2	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Harlock	0.54%	185	111		13
Cameron John	2.41%	41	36		3
Charlie Robbins	0.05%	2000	351		93
Chris Malec	0.16%	625	226		3
Christopher Wood	0.55%	182	86		93
Connor McDade	0.66%	152	111		9
Cooper Eccleston	0.18%	556	251		93
Corey Lamb	0.37%	270	141		64
Cory Crawford	1.59%	63	51		93
Curtis Luck	3.70%	27	19		23
Daniel Gale	2.57%	39	36		64
Daniel Gill	0.10%	1000	251		84
Darcy Brereton	1.42%	70	61		64
David Micheluzzi	4.03%	25	29	0.60%	23	-0.6	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Declan O'Donovan	2.09%	48	31		1
Denzel Ieremia	0.90%	111	81		35
Deyen Lawson	0.18%	556	141		23
Dillon Hart	0.24%	417	251		53
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.50%	200			84
Douglas Klein	2.13%	47	36		13
Dylan Gardner	0.43%	233	111		93
Edward Donoghue	0.11%	909	151		64
Gavin Fairfax	0.91%	110	91		23
George Worrall	0.06%	1667	151		84
Hamish Farquharson	0.40%	250	111		23
Hamish Murray	0.17%	588	176		64
Harrison Davis	0.07%	1429	251		35
Harry McMillan	0.01%	10000	401		106
Haydn Barron	3.10%	32	31		23
Jack Holland	0.14%	714	251		64
Jack Munro	0.34%	294	111		13
Jack Pountney	0.04%	2500	351		35
Jack Tanner	0.03%	3333	301		35
Jack Thompson	3.26%	31	31		13
Jack Wright	0.02%	5000			84
Jak Carter	0.68%	147	101		84
Jake McLeod	3.26%	31	23		23
James Conran	0.53%	189	71		106
James Marchesani	2.21%	45	36		93
James Mee	0.19%	526	141		23
Jared Edwards	1.36%	74	71		53
Jason Hong	1.11%	90	61		13
Jasper Stubbs	0.26%	385	151		23
Jay Mackenzie	1.09%	92	46		35
Jayden Cripps	0.00%	10000	501		93
Jayden Ford	0.53%	189	151		64
Jeffrey Guan	1.03%	97	61		64
Jimmy Zheng	1.64%	61	51		64
John Lyras	0.50%	200	56		3
Jose De Sousa	0.06%	1667	351		93
Joseph Owen	0.07%	1429	251		64
Josh Armstrong	0.57%	175	86		3
Josh Younger	0.88%	114	91		64
Joshua Holbrook	0.02%	5000	401		115
Justin Warren	0.33%	303	81		118
Jye Halls	0.78%	128	51		64
Jye Pickin	0.43%	233	126		9
Kerry Mountcastle	1.75%	57	31		35
Kevin Yuan	2.22%	45	31		35
Kyle Michel	0.34%	294	126		9
Lachlan Aylen	0.11%	909	176		35
Lachlan Barker	1.97%	51	36		3
Liam Georgiadis	0.02%	5000	401		112
Lincoln Tighe	0.25%	400	126		106
Louis Dobbelaar	0.56%	179	61		3
Lucas Higgins	0.14%	714	101		120
Luke Porritt	0.04%	2500	351		112
M.J. Maguire	2.73%	37	26		53
Mako Thompson	0.79%	127	91		106
Mason Lee	0.19%	526	226		112
Matias Sanchez	1.71%	58	51		13
Matt Dowling	0.03%	3333	351		115
Matthew Griffin	1.62%	62	61		64
Michael Hendry	2.74%	36	29		23
Mitchell Smith	0.03%	3333	126		35
Nathan Barbieri	1.42%	70	46		9
Nathan Page	0.45%	222	91		53
Nick Voke	3.35%	30	26		13
Patrick Healy	0.07%	1429	301		53
Peter Cooke	0.54%	185	111		35
Phoenix Campbell	0.13%	769	301		84
Quinnton Croker	1.49%	67	61		13
Rhys Granger	0.00%	10000	501		115
Sam Brazel	0.92%	109	81		35
Samuel Slater	0.18%	556	101		84
Thomas Power Horan	0.68%	147	91		93
Tim Hart	0.64%	156	101		13
Toby Walker	0.06%	1667	226		93
Todd Sinnott	1.76%	57	61	0.10%	23	-0.1	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Travis Smyth	4.89%	20	15		13
Ty Gingerich	0.61%	164	126		35
Tyler Wood	0.79%	127	81		35
Wil Daibarra	0.06%	1667	301		118
Will Florimo	1.24%	81	61		1
William Bruyeres	0.09%	1111	141		53
Zach Ion	0.19%	526	111		64
Zach Murray	0.58%	172	81		53
Zachary Maxwell	0.01%	10000	401		35

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: David Micheluzzi	8.16%	12	21	3.60%	29	-2	Skybet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Haydn Barron	5.22%	19	34	2.30%	2	5.6	Boyle Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Jack Thompson	5.23%	19	26	1.40%	87	-2	Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: David Micheluzzi	4.03%	25	29	0.60%	23	-1	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Brett Rankin	1.60%	63	71	0.20%	93	-1	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Brady Watt	1.30%	77	91	0.20%	35	-1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Todd Sinnott	1.76%	57	61	0.10%	23	-1	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.