Simulation Results: Heritage Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Pike 0.60% 167 151 75
Aaron Townsend 0.69% 145 276 0.30% 59 -0.3 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Bland 2.23% 45 46 0.10% 34 -0.1 Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adam Brady 0.87% 115 101 116
Aiden Didone 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 57 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alex Edge 0.19% 526 1001 0.10% 61 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alexander Simpson 0.48% 208 451 0.30% 65 -0.3 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andre Lautee 0.29% 345 751 0.20% 28 -0.2 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Campbell 1.06% 94 81 28
Andrew Evans 1.54% 65 71 0.10% 4 0.3625 Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Kelly 1.06% 94 67 75
Andrew Martin 1.48% 68 71 0.10% 4 0.4625 Paddy Power: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrew Richards 0.14% 714 751 88
Anthony Choat 0.14% 714 1001 113
Anthony Quayle 3.89% 26 15 4
Ashley Hall 0.03% 3333 301 23
Austin Bautista 1.31% 76 34 20
Bailey Arnott 0.03% 3333 1001 88
Ben Eccles 1.62% 62 51 16
Ben Ferguson 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 97 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Henkel 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 110 -0.1 Skybet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Wharton 0.18% 556 176 75
Billy Dowling 0.82% 122 67 75
Blake Proverbs 1.06% 94 81 88
Blake Windred 0.80% 125 201 0.30% 41 -0.3 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Braden Becker 0.65% 154 161 20
Bradley Kivimets 0.08% 1250 751 106
Brady Watt 1.53% 65 41 103
Caleb Bovalina 0.10% 1000 1001 61
Chris Crabtree 0.29% 345 601 0.10% 106 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christopher Fan 0.40% 250 501 0.20% 46 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christopher Wood 0.93% 108 71 41
Connor McKinney 0.97% 103 81 106
Corey Lamb 0.78% 128 67 75
Cory Crawford 1.45% 69 76 0.10% 67 -0.1 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
D.J. Loypur 0.12% 833 601 106
Damon Stephenson 0.18% 556 751 119
Daniel Gill 0.04% 2500 751 88
Darcy Boyd 0.01% 10000 1001 46
Darcy Brereton 0.72% 139 126 8
David McKenzie 0.26% 385 351 46
Declan O'Donovan 0.32% 313 46 28
Deyen Lawson 1.38% 72 67 103
Dillon Hart 0.61% 164 226 0.20% 53 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dimitrios Papadatos 0.25% 400 46
Douglas Klein 1.06% 94 81 12
Dylan Gardner 0.47% 213 201 23
Edward Donoghue 0.23% 435 301 46
Elvis Smylie 5.86% 17 12 53
Gavin Fairfax 0.93% 108 151 0.30% 20 -0.3 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harrison Crowe 1.72% 58 34 16
Jack Buchanan 2.28% 44 31 41
Jack Chrystie 0.00% 10000 1501 118
Jack Harrison 0.27% 370 351 65
Jack McLeod 0.05% 2000 1001 28
Jack Munro 1.03% 97 81 26
Jack Pountney 0.08% 1250 751 97
Jake McLeod 3.64% 27 15 28
James Conran 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 1 21.875 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Gibellini 0.50% 200 501 0.30% 67 -0.3 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Hydes 0.40% 250 451 0.20% 88 -0.2 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Marchesani 1.00% 100 51 37
James Mee 0.13% 769 501 88
Jarryd Felton 0.69% 145 151 67
Jason Hong 0.45% 222 101 4
Jasper Stubbs 1.32% 76 101 0.30% 41 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jay Mackenzie 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 16 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jimmy Zheng 0.22% 455 151 28
Joel Mitchell 0.00% 10000 1001 67
Jordan Doull 1.86% 54 41 3
Jordan Zunic 1.32% 76 101 0.30% 46 -0.3 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joseph Owen 0.13% 769 451 110
Josh Armstrong 0.52% 192 176 8
Josh Geary 4.20% 24 17 97
Josh Younger 0.66% 152 201 0.20% 67 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jye Pickin 1.23% 81 51 97
Kade McBride 1.87% 53 23 23
Kerry Mountcastle 2.00% 50 29 34
Kyle Michel 0.54% 185 151 34
Lachlan Barker 0.78% 128 161 0.20% 12 -0.2 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Levi Sclater 0.14% 714 501 75
Liam Georgiadis 0.05% 2000 1001 113
Lincoln Tighe 0.75% 133 161 0.10% 12 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Louis Dobbelaar 0.31% 323 126 37
Lucas Higgins 0.30% 333 351 75
Marcus Fraser 0.26% 385 1251 0.20% 112 -0.2 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matias Sanchez 1.38% 72 71 60
Max Charles 0.07% 1429 451 75
Max Moring 0.22% 455 131 46
Michael Hendry 4.45% 22 15 67
Nathan Barbieri 2.37% 42 36 97
Nathan Page 0.39% 256 176 2
Neven Basic 0.09% 1111 401 61
Peter A. Wilson 0.55% 182 226 0.10% 37 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Peter Cooke 0.42% 238 351 0.10% 16 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Phoenix Campbell 1.19% 84 91 0.10% 75 -0.1 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quinnton Croker 3.01% 33 26 41
Riley Taylor 0.02% 5000 601 113
Rintaro Nakano 0.35% 286 61 75
Ryan Peake 1.43% 70 34 88
Sam Brazel 1.51% 66 76 0.20% 8 -0.2 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Samuel Slater 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 57 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Scott Strange 0.48% 208 226 75
Shae Wools-Cobb 0.68% 147 101 88
Siddharth Nadimpalli 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 88 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sungjin Yeo 0.43% 233 201 67
Ted Sargeant 0.00% 10000 1001 53
Terry Pilkadaris 0.31% 323 351 53
Thomas Power Horan 1.02% 98 91 75
Tim Hart 1.14% 88 51 67
Tim Walker 0.11% 909 351 97
Toby Walker 0.12% 833 501 37
Tyler Hodge 0.97% 103 81 8
Tyler Wood 1.28% 78 81 26
Will Florimo 1.85% 54 46 12
William Bayliss 0.00% 10000 1001 75
William Bruyeres 0.19% 526 501 117
Zach Ion 0.03% 3333 601 120
Zach Murray 0.76% 132 126 103
Zachary Maxwell 0.19% 526 1001 0.10% 61 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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