Simulation Results: Australian Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.34% 294 226 23
Abraham Ancer 2.04% 49 36 30
Adam Bland 0.16% 625 1001 0.10% 112 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Scott 4.93% 20 19 5
Adri Arnaus 0.22% 455 401 120
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.80% 56 67 0.30% 65 -0.3 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alexander Simpson 0.02% 5000 5001 145
Andreas Halvorsen 0.40% 250 201 145
Andres Gallegos 0.02% 5000 1001 139
Andrew Campbell 0.08% 1250 5001 0.10% 92 -0.1 Betfred: 5000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Evans 0.03% 3333 3001 100
Andrew Johnston 0.34% 294 201 112
Andrew Martin 0.07% 1429 1501 130
Anthony Quayle 0.73% 137 101 125
Austin Bautista 0.18% 556 351 51
Ben Campbell 0.35% 286 351 0.10% Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Eccles 0.02% 5000 5001 112
Ben Henkel 0.05% 2000 5001 23
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.09% 1111 1001 61
Bernd Wiesberger 1.42% 70 91 0.30% 23 -0.3 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blake Phillips 0.02% 5000 2001 149
Blake Proverbs 0.04% 2500 5001 100
Brad Kennedy 0.32% 313 551 0.10% 125 -0.1 Unibet: 550/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brady Watt 0.07% 1429 1501 75
Brendan Jones 0.06% 1667 5001 75
Brett Rumford 0.13% 769 1501 0.10% 39 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caleb Surratt 1.21% 83 67 8
Cam Davis 1.01% 99 46 61
Cameron Adam 0.30% 333 501 0.10% 35 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron John 0.42% 238 201 57
Cameron Smith 1.03% 97 36 2
Carlos Ortiz 2.45% 41 29 8
Charley Hoffman 0.65% 154 201 0.20% 112 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christopher Malec 0.02% 5000 2501 145
Christopher Wood 0.07% 1429 901 149
Clement Charmasson 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 39 -0.2 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Clement Sordet 0.46% 217 301 0.10% 100 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Connor McKinney 0.04% 2500 1001 51
Corey Lamb 0.02% 5000 5001 74
Curtis Luck 0.63% 159 151 30
Daniel Gale 0.36% 278 251 75
Daniel Hillier 2.43% 41 29 6
Daniel Rodrigues 0.35% 286 276 12
Daniel Young 0.29% 345 351 18
Danny Willett 0.61% 164 176 151
David Law 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 51 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Micheluzzi 0.28% 357 251 120
David Puig 4.88% 20 15 92
Davis Bryant 1.06% 94 176 0.50% 12 -0.5 Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Gardner 0.01% 10000 5001 130
Eddie Pepperell 0.40% 250 226 92
Elvis Smylie 1.44% 69 41 8
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.42% 238 401 0.20% 92 -0.2 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Fifa Laopakdee 0.00% 10000 1001 145
Filippo Celli 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 120 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Freddy Schott 0.56% 179 251 0.20% 112 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Geoff Ogilvy 0.43% 233 601 0.30% 65 -0.3 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Chalmers 0.10% 1000 1001 14
Gregorio De Leo 0.76% 132 201 0.30% 75 -0.3 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harrison Crowe 0.08% 1250 651 151
Harry Takis 0.20% 500 401 120
Haydn Barron 0.43% 233 351 0.10% 46 -0.1 BetMGM: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hunter Logan 0.03% 3333 1501 75
Jack Buchanan 0.19% 526 501 18
Jack Munro 0.04% 2500 5001 92
Jack Senior 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 23 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Thompson 0.14% 714 2001 0.10% 75 -0.1 Betfred: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Yule 0.04% 2500 2001 139
Jak Carter 0.03% 3333 5001 142
Jake McLeod 0.11% 909 751 35
James Conran 0.03% 3333 5001 130
James Marchesani 0.22% 455 501 61
James Morrison 0.30% 333 301 69
Jason Norris 0.02% 5000 5001 112
Jason Scrivener 0.76% 132 176 0.20% 46 -0.2 Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jasper Stubbs 0.00% 10000 1501 92
Jay Mackenzie 0.06% 1667 2501 154
Jediah Morgan 0.08% 1250 601 67
Jeffrey Guan 0.05% 2000 2501 112
Jimmy Zheng 0.04% 2500 5001 100
Joaquin Niemann 2.45% 41 17 130
Joel Girrbach 0.64% 156 176 0.10% 51 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
John Senden 0.00% 10000 5001 73
Jordan Doull 0.08% 1250 1251 100
Jordan Gumberg 0.23% 435 801 0.10% 39 -0.1 Skybet: 800/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jose Luis Ballester 2.29% 44 41 6
Josh Geary 0.34% 294 651 0.20% 139 -0.2 Unibet: 650/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry 0.13% 769 1001 75
Jye Halls 0.02% 5000 1001 75
Kaito Sato 0.05% 2000 1501 67
Karl Vilips 0.84% 119 71 120
Kazuma Kobori 0.89% 112 61 100
Kerry Mountcastle 0.04% 2500 1501 61
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.89% 112 111 30
Lachlan Barker 0.09% 1111 2001 75
Lincoln Tighe 0.01% 10000 5001 112
Lucas Herbert 1.20% 83 34 18
Marc Leishman 3.29% 30 21 18
Matias Sanchez 0.17% 588 501 142
Matt Jones 0.61% 164 176 130
Matt McCarty 2.78% 36 36 8
Matthew Baldwin 0.18% 556 901 0.10% 100 -0.1 Unibet: 900/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Griffin 0.04% 2500 5001 100
Maximilian Steinlechner 0.44% 227 201 125
Michael Hollick 0.16% 625 1501 0.10% 4 18.7 Betfred: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Wright 0.12% 833 2501 0.10% 130 -0.1 Bet365: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mike Toorop 0.04% 2500 2501 75
Min Woo Lee 4.00% 25 15 14
Nathan Barbieri 0.19% 526 501 57
Nathan Kimsey 0.46% 217 201 100
Nick Voke 0.35% 286 251 35
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 100 -0.1 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Oliver Bekker 0.25% 400 901 0.10% 125 -0.1 Unibet: 900/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ollie Marsh 0.00% 10000 4001 100
Peter Lonard 0.00% 10000 5001 130
Phoenix Campbell 0.01% 10000 5001 125
Quim Vidal 0.07% 1429 1501 59
Quinnton Croker 0.22% 455 501 75
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.54% 185 251 0.10% 23 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rafael Campos 0.36% 278 501 0.20% 75 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 2.24% 45 23 1
Renato Paratore 0.28% 357 351 75
Ricardo Gouveia 0.85% 118 201 0.40% 75 -0.4 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richard Green 0.27% 370 751 0.10% 46 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robin Williams 0.53% 189 201 46
Rocco Repetto 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 23 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rod Pampling 0.04% 2500 2501 156
Romain Langasque 0.81% 123 161 0.20% 59 -0.2 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rory McIlroy 8.40% 12 5.5 14
Ryan Fox 2.02% 50 29 14
Ryan Peake 0.13% 769 751 92
Ryan Van Velzen 0.19% 526 601 130
Ryo Hisatsune 1.13% 88 86 51
Sadom Kaewkanjana 0.79% 127 176 0.20% 75 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Bairstow 1.14% 88 81 75
Sean Crocker 0.36% 278 226 30
Sebastian Garcia 0.36% 278 351 0.10% 51 -0.1 Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Munoz 3.34% 30 31 0.10% 39 -0.1 Spreadex: 30/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shubhankar Sharma 0.22% 455 426 75
Si Woo Kim 4.12% 24 17 3
Siddharth Nadimpalli 0.00% 10000 2501 100
Simon Hawkes 0.02% 5000 5001 142
Stefano Mazzoli 0.68% 147 141 23
Stephen Leaney 0.01% 10000 1501 69
Steve Allan 0.17% 588 751 39
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.46% 217 351 0.20% 46 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Hart 0.03% 3333 5001 151
Tobias Jonsson 0.36% 278 351 0.10% 69 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tom Vaillant 1.59% 63 71 0.20% 30 -0.2 Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Hodge 0.03% 3333 5001 39
Ugo Coussaud 0.75% 133 126 39
Wade Ormsby 0.22% 455 501 35
Wenyi Ding 1.98% 51 34 18
Will Florimo 0.16% 625 751 92
William Bruyeres 0.00% 10000 1501 155
Yannik Paul 0.00% 10000 401 72

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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