Simulation Results: Australian PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.66% 152 131 123
Abraham Ancer 2.89% 35 34 33
Adam Bland 0.24% 417 751 0.10% 48 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Brady 0.01% 10000 2501 19
Adam Scott 4.23% 24 17 7
Adri Arnaus 0.27% 370 351 78
Alex Fitzpatrick 2.15% 47 46 19
Alexander Simpson 0.02% 5000 3001 104
Andreas Halvorsen 0.62% 161 151 78
Andres Gallegos 0.06% 1667 751 130
Andrew Campbell 0.09% 1111 1501 91
Andrew Evans 0.07% 1429 2501 146
Andrew Johnston 0.59% 169 121 78
Andrew Martin 0.10% 1000 651 75
Anthony Quayle 0.75% 133 126 10
Austin Bautista 0.15% 667 351 25
Ben Eccles 0.01% 10000 2001 112
Ben Henkel 0.08% 1250 1501 112
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.14% 714 601 112
Bernd Wiesberger 1.01% 99 161 0.40% 10 -0.4 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Blake Proverbs 0.04% 2500 2501 130
Brady Watt 0.14% 714 751 156
Brendan Jones 0.06% 1667 1501 78
Brett Rankin 0.16% 625 1001 0.10% 41 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett Rumford 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 112 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brody Martin 0.00% 10000 5001 148
Callum Tarren 0.52% 192 401 0.30% 91 -0.3 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cam Davis 1.51% 66 36 33
Cameron Adam 1.27% 79 301 0.90% 123 -0.9 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron John 0.83% 120 111 91
Cameron Smith 2.40% 42 23 112
Carlos Ortiz 2.99% 33 21 25
Christopher Malec 0.02% 5000 2501 112
Christopher Wood 0.10% 1000 476 48
Clement Charmasson 0.24% 417 501 33
Clement Sordet 0.54% 185 251 0.10% 66 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Connor McDade 0.04% 2500 3001 112
Connor McKinney 0.05% 2000 351 123
Corey Lamb 0.04% 2500 1501 146
Cory Crawford 0.19% 526 601 78
Curtis Luck 0.94% 106 101 48
Daniel Gale 0.36% 278 501 0.20% 8 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Hillier 2.30% 43 34 5
Daniel Rodrigues 0.12% 833 501 33
Daniel Young 0.53% 189 161 104
Darcy Brereton 0.13% 769 1001 104
David Law 0.51% 196 176 41
David Micheluzzi 0.90% 111 71 148
David Puig 4.71% 21 17 1
Davis Bryant 0.58% 172 161 14
Denzel Ieremia 0.20% 500 1001 0.10% 66 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Douglas Klein 0.27% 370 501 0.10% 104 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Gardner 0.02% 5000 5001 123
Eddie Pepperell 0.43% 233 131 56
Elvis Smylie 2.42% 41 26 19
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.59% 169 401 0.30% 78 -0.3 BetVictor: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Filippo Celli 0.55% 182 226 0.10% 130 -0.1 Skybet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Biondi 0.20% 500 551 78
Freddy Schott 0.96% 104 176 0.40% 41 -0.4 Skybet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gavin Fairfax 0.13% 769 1501 0.10% 78 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Geoff Ogilvy 0.08% 1250 1001 41
Greg Chalmers 0.33% 303 601 0.20% 104 -0.2 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gregorio De Leo 0.40% 250 251 14
Harrison Crowe 0.08% 1250 351 56
Haydn Barron 0.72% 139 201 0.20% 91 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hunter Logan 0.02% 5000 1001 123
Jack Buchanan 0.21% 476 501 48
Jack Munro 0.06% 1667 2001 112
Jack Senior 0.57% 175 176 56
Jack Thompson 0.15% 667 751 41
Jack Yule 0.04% 2500 1501 91
Jak Carter 0.02% 5000 2501 91
Jake McLeod 0.14% 714 651 53
James Conran 0.02% 5000 2501 112
James Marchesani 0.19% 526 501 14
James Morrison 0.21% 476 501 33
Jason Norris 0.03% 3333 4001 130
Jason Scrivener 0.70% 143 81 41
Jasper Stubbs 0.00% 10000 3001 153
Jay Mackenzie 0.08% 1250 551 151
Jayden Ford 0.05% 2000 5001 91
Jediah Morgan 0.16% 625 301 130
Jeffrey Guan 0.08% 1250 1001 104
Jimmy Zheng 0.05% 2000 1501 140
Joaquin Niemann 4.29% 23 10 91
Joel Girrbach 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 104 -0.2 BetVictor: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jonathan Broomhead 0.25% 400 301 33
Jordan Doull 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 112 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Gumberg 0.32% 313 551 0.10% 74 -0.1 Spreadex: 550/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jose Luis Ballester 2.72% 37 36 10
Josh Geary 0.22% 455 501 19
Joshua Berry 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 140 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jye Pickin 0.02% 5000 3001 140
Kameron Williams 0.00% 10000 5001 130
Kazuma Kobori 1.29% 78 46 25
Kerry Mountcastle 0.08% 1250 1001 148
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1.27% 79 61 66
Lachlan Barker 0.08% 1250 1501 48
Lachlan Chamberlain 0.00% 10000 4001 140
Mako Thompson 0.08% 1250 2001 123
Marc Leishman 5.02% 20 17 3
Marco Penge 3.58% 28 13 25
Marcus Fraser 0.02% 5000 5001 123
Mason Lee 0.00% 10000 4001 130
Matias Sanchez 0.33% 303 301 91
Matt Jones 0.98% 102 131 0.20% 104 -0.2 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Baldwin 0.16% 625 501 78
Matthew Griffin 0.04% 2500 2501 72
Maximilian Steinlechner 0.59% 169 131 78
Michael Hollick 0.23% 435 1001 0.10% 91 -0.1 BetVictor: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Wright 0.14% 714 1501 0.10% 73 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mike Toorop 0.03% 3333 1001 91
Min Woo Lee 5.74% 17 12 5
Mitchell Smith 0.00% 10000 5001 91
Nathan Barbieri 0.28% 357 326 56
Nathan Kimsey 0.74% 135 131 78
Nick Voke 0.32% 313 351 3
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.32% 313 351 56
Oliver Bekker 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 56 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Lonard 0.01% 10000 5001 151
Phoenix Campbell 0.01% 10000 3001 153
Quim Vidal 0.14% 714 751 130
Quinnton Croker 0.14% 714 251 19
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.90% 111 131 0.10% 91 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rafael Campos 0.59% 169 401 0.30% 71 -0.3 Skybet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 5.07% 20 13 140
Renato Paratore 0.31% 323 226 78
Ricardo Gouveia 0.52% 192 326 0.20% 8 -0.2 Spreadex: 325/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robin Williams 0.29% 345 351 19
Rocco Repetto 0.33% 303 251 53
Rod Pampling 0.05% 2000 2001 140
Ryan Fox 1.39% 72 26 39
Ryan Peake 0.10% 1000 1001 25
Ryan Van Velzen 0.57% 175 501 0.40% 76 -0.4 Skybet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Bairstow 0.74% 135 126 10
Sean Crocker 0.31% 323 181 78
Sebastian Garcia 0.51% 196 351 0.20% 56 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Munoz 3.30% 30 21 14
Shubhankar Sharma 0.27% 370 426 56
Simon Hawkes 0.02% 5000 2501 130
Stefano Mazzoli 0.71% 141 226 0.30% 25 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 25 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.33% 303 501 0.10% 39 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Sims 0.00% 10000 4001 77
Tim Hart 0.02% 5000 2501 112
Tobias Jonsson 0.33% 303 351 53
Tom Vaillant 1.26% 79 67 14
Tyler Hodge 0.03% 3333 2001 130
Tyler Wood 0.02% 5000 2501 66
Ugo Coussaud 1.31% 76 71 56
Wade Ormsby 0.17% 588 501 25
Wenyi Ding 1.55% 65 46 2
Will Florimo 0.20% 500 501 41
William Bruyeres 0.01% 10000 4001 153
Yannik Paul 0.34% 294 501 0.10% 56 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.00% 10000 101 66

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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