Simulation Results: Taifong Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Ahmad Baig	1.33%	75	41		90
Aidric Chan	0.19%	526	501		98
Ajeetesh Sandhu	1.25%	80	151	0.60%	58	-0.6	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andi Xu	0.39%	256	501	0.20%	48	-0.2	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai	1.53%	65	67		62
Berry Henson	0.48%	208	251	0.10%	62	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bowen Xiao	0.60%	167	101		73
Brett Rankin	0.51%	196	301	0.20%	107	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron John	2.17%	46	23		137
Carl Jano Corpus	0.35%	286	251		31
Carlos Pigem	0.32%	313	226		90
Carson Herron	0.06%	1667	501		107
Chao-Hsin Hung	0.07%	1429	601		133
Chao-Hua Lee	0.00%	10000	1251		73
Chapchai Nirat	1.07%	93	101	0.10%	107	-0.1	William Hill: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Porter	0.65%	154	126		141
Charles Wang	0.17%	588	351		127
Charlie Lindh	1.66%	60	67	0.20%	40	-0.2	William Hill: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charng-Tai Sudsom	1.16%	86	71		31
Chase Koepka	1.11%	90	41		4
Chi Huang	0.08%	1250	601		52
Chia-Han Chan	0.00%	10000			85
Chia-Yin Yeh	0.05%	2000	751		127
Chieh-Po Lee	3.29%	30	17		11
Chien-Yao Hung	2.08%	48	21		20
Chi-Hsien Hsieh	0.16%	625	601		115
Ching-Hung Su	0.30%	333	176		18
Chin-Hung He	0.06%	1667	251		115
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam	1.25%	80	67		22
Danthai Boonma	1.31%	76	46		7
David Boote	0.17%	588	751		52
Denzel Ieremia	0.28%	357	301		98
Ekpharit Wu	2.39%	42	23		18
Ervin Chang	0.92%	109	141	0.20%	42	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Finlay Mason	0.13%	769	751		90
Gabriele De Barba	0.06%	1667	601		52
Gregory Foo	0.08%	1250	501		107
Gunn Charoenkul	0.79%	127	141	0.10%	98	-0.1	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Guxin Chen	0.36%	278	101		73
Harrison Crowe	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	42	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Henry Chung	0.11%	909	1001		98
Henry Lee	0.22%	455	351		36
Hsi-An Wang	0.02%	5000	751		42
Hsiao-Che Yang	0.00%	10000	1001		90
Ian Peng	0.03%	3333	251		73
Ian Snyman	3.27%	31	21		1
Itthipat Buranatanyarat	0.74%	135	126		85
James Leow	1.14%	88	67		22
Jazz Janewattananond	2.82%	35	15		22
Jbe Kruger	0.41%	244	126		9
Jeunghun Wang	2.78%	36	17		11
John Catlin	2.87%	35	26		9
Jonathan Wijono	0.86%	116	46		127
Jui-Shen Lee	0.01%	10000	1251		107
Justin Harding	0.35%	286	101		31
Justin Quiban	0.43%	233	176		62
Justin Warren	0.45%	222	276	0.10%	68	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kai-Jen Tsai	0.00%	10000	751		48
Kevin Yuan	1.67%	60	67	0.20%	85	-0.2	William Hill: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Khalid Attieh	0.02%	5000	1501		98
Khavish Varadan	0.69%	145	126		11
Ko-Yen Chang Chien	0.00%	10000	501		140
Lawrence Ting	0.02%	5000	301		141
Lloyd Jefferson Go	0.19%	526	401		4
M.J. Maguire	1.25%	80	51		123
Mako Shapiyate	0.02%	5000	401		115
Marc Hammer	0.15%	667	251		115
Marcus Plunkett	2.15%	47	81	0.90%	131	-0.9	Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Killen	0.70%	143	67		22
Matthew Cheung	0.27%	370	226		2
Maverick Antcliff	0.87%	115	111		22
Micah Shin	1.23%	81	71		73
Minchan Kim	0.00%	10000	1501		137
Min-Hsuan Hsieh	0.00%	10000			68
Naraajie E. Ramadhanputra	0.06%	1667	1001		90
Nicholas Fung	0.07%	1429	251		48
Nick Voke	2.71%	37	21		22
Niklas Regner	0.11%	909	351		141
Nopparat Panichphol	0.32%	313	276		73
Pavit Tangkamolprasert	3.45%	29	19		58
Poom Saksansin	2.97%	34	19		36
Poosit Supupramai	0.61%	164	67		127
Prom Meesawat	0.43%	233	226		66
Rattanon Wannasrichan	1.12%	89	81		58
Roberto Lebrija	0.27%	370	351		20
Runchanapong Youprayong	2.79%	36	23		22
Ryan Ang	0.62%	161	76		52
Ryo Noro	0.06%	1667	501		52
Sam Broadhurst	0.22%	455	351		66
Sampson Zheng	3.38%	30			31
Santiago De La Fuente	0.91%	110	81		2
Sarit Suwannarut	1.43%	70	41		11
Sarut Vongchaisit	1.19%	84	176	0.60%	22	-0.6	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Hend	2.33%	43	31		85
Settee Prakongvech	0.98%	102	91		98
Shang-Kai Tsai	0.05%	2000	301		31
Shaurya Bhattacharya	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	42	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sheng-Hui Wang	0.03%	3333			73
Shergo Al Kurdi	0.00%	10000	1501		137
Shih-Chang Chan	0.24%	417	226		52
Shotaro Ban	0.25%	400	226		11
Shun Yat Hak	0.16%	625	401		73
Shunichiro Morioka	0.01%	10000	251		73
Siddikur Rahman	0.88%	114	91		90
Steve Lewton	1.43%	70	71		22
Sung-Po Yu	0.03%	3333	301		73
Sun-Yi Lu	0.05%	2000	251		115
Suradit Yongcharoenchai	0.57%	175	151		7
Suteepat Prateeptienchai	2.41%	41	26		90
Taichi Kho	1.59%	63	41		42
Tanapat Pichaikool	0.56%	179	176		98
Tawit Polthai	0.37%	270	201		11
Ta-Yu Lin	0.00%	10000			133
Teng Kao	0.06%	1667	751		123
Thanapol Charoensuk	0.13%	769	401		48
Thanpisit Omsin	0.24%	417	401		72
Ting-Wei Hsieh	0.57%	175	111		115
Tse-Yu Chang	0.01%	10000			62
Tsung-Yu Tsai	0.01%	10000	601		40
Tzu-Hao Tseng	0.01%	10000	601		115
Warun Ieamgaew	0.54%	185	251	0.10%	58	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wei-Cheng Shen	0.07%	1429	401		141
Wei-Chih Lu	0.18%	556	401		123
Wei-Hsuan Wang	1.91%	52	31		42
Wei-Lun Chang	1.00%	100	101		4
Wei-Sheng Chen	0.01%	10000	751		133
Will Florimo	0.56%	179	176		73
Yanwei Liu	0.25%	400	176		73
Yao-Wei Wu	0.01%	10000	501		131
Yen-Hung Liu	0.12%	833	201		71
Yi-Tong Chen	0.02%	5000	501		115
Yi-Tseng Huang	0.06%	1667			123
Yi-Yuan Lin	0.02%	5000	751		133
Yu-Chen Yeh	0.37%	270	126		68
Yu-Cheng Ho	0.07%	1429	251		90
Yu-Cheng Hsu	0.02%	5000	501		107
Yu-Jui Liu	0.02%	5000	501		107
Yung-Hua Liu	0.42%	238	201		11
Yung-Lung Lin	0.01%	10000	401		98
Yuta Yoshikuwa	0.33%	303	201		107
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.65%	154	101		36
Yuxin Lin	0.75%	133	141		85
Zhengkai Bai	0.17%	588	201		36
Zihao Jin	1.11%	90			98

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Marcus Plunkett	2.15%	47	81	0.90%	131	-2	Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Ajeetesh Sandhu	1.25%	80	151	0.60%	58	-2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Sarut Vongchaisit	1.19%	84	176	0.60%	22	-2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.