Simulation Results: Taifong Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wilkin 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 108 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ahmad Baig 1.50% 67 34 5
Ajeetesh Sandhu 2.58% 39 34 22
Berry Henson 0.65% 154 141 15
Bio Kim 3.63% 28 19 108
Bjorn Hellgren 2.79% 36 34 37
Brett Rankin 1.14% 88 111 0.20% 33 -0.2 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carlos Pigem 0.29% 345 126 33
Chanat Sakulpolphaisan 0.71% 141 201 0.20% 37 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chao-Hsin Hung 0.25% 400 126 68
Chapchai Nirat 1.02% 98 71 13
Charles Porter 2.84% 35 23 79
Charlie Lindh 1.75% 57 36 3
Charng-Tai Sudsom 1.32% 76 41 37
Cheng-Hsiang Wen 0.02% 5000 301 103
Chi Huang 0.06% 1667 301 19
Chia-I Lai 0.05% 2000 108
Chia-Yin Yeh 0.32% 313 351 98
Chieh-Po Lee 7.70% 13 13 42
Chien-Yao Hung 3.47% 29 26 2
Chih-Kai Hsu 0.00% 10000 751 108
Chi-Hsien Hsieh 0.58% 172 111 86
Ching-Hung Su 0.55% 182 91 33
Chin-Hung He 0.17% 588 151 42
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam 2.23% 45 31 24
Christian Banke 1.04% 96 141 0.30% 53 -0.3 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christopher Hickman 0.06% 1667 251 116
Cody Montgomery 0.00% 10000 79
Dengshan Koh 0.03% 3333 501 108
Dodge Kemmer 0.76% 132 126 103
Eduard Rousaud 0.24% 417 176 79
Ekpharit Wu 1.36% 74 61 1
Ervin Chang 1.64% 61 71 0.20% 42 -0.2 PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Flint Bekkers 0.01% 10000 116
Fu-Tung Tseng 0.02% 5000 501 66
Galven Green 0.12% 833 501 68
George Kneiser 0.39% 256 111 22
Heemin Chang 1.58% 63 36 6
Hsi-An Wang 0.06% 1667 401 86
Hsiang-Hao Huang 0.03% 3333 501 98
Itthipat Buranatanyarat 1.14% 88 81 86
Jakkanat Inmee 0.25% 400 201 113
Jonathan Wijono 0.49% 204 176 9
Jose Toledo 0.99% 101 101 3
Jui-Shen Lee 0.00% 10000 301 68
Justin Quiban 1.93% 52 67 0.40% 56 -0.4 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
K.P. Lin 0.12% 833 251 53
Kai-Jen Tsai 0.00% 10000 301 68
Keita Okada 0.03% 3333 93
Khalin H. Joshi 1.02% 98 151 0.40% 42 -0.4 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kosuke Hamamoto 1.27% 79 81 27
Kosuke Yokokawa 0.02% 5000 351 86
Lawrence Ting 0.19% 526 111 68
Lawry Flynn 0.17% 588 201 103
Lloyd Jefferson Go 0.21% 476 151 19
Mako Shapiyate 0.00% 10000 301 49
Manav Shah 0.40% 250 151 98
Marcus Lim 0.76% 132 301 0.40% 27 -0.4 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Tran 0.09% 1111 401 121
Michele Ortolani 0.82% 122 141 0.10% 93 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miguel Carballo 0.78% 128 101 37
Nathaniel Lee 0.00% 10000 401 68
Newport Laparojkit 0.29% 345 201 68
Nicklaus Chiam 0.21% 476 141 42
Nitithorn Thippong 0.52% 192 81 79
Nopparat Panichphol 0.44% 227 101 113
Oliver Roberts 0.03% 3333 401 116
Panuphol Pittayarat 0.96% 104 71 49
Pawin Ingkhapradit 0.39% 256 201 79
Peter Gunawan 0.01% 10000 751 103
Poosit Supupramai 0.91% 110 91 6
Pui In Hun 0.00% 10000 601 116
Pukhraj Singh Gill 0.28% 357 151 56
Roberto Lebrija 0.70% 143 91 56
Runchanapong Youprayong 2.55% 39 31 9
Ryoto Furuya 0.07% 1429 86
S. Chikkarangappa 0.38% 263 141 24
Santiago De La Fuente 2.42% 41 34 9
Sarut Vongchaisit 2.28% 44 29 15
Sean Ramos 1.34% 75 61 42
Settee Prakongvech 1.87% 53 51 19
Shahriffuddin Ariffin 1.59% 63 41 33
Shang-Kai Tsai 0.15% 667 201 68
Shih-Chang Chan 2.11% 47 29 61
Shinichi Mizuno 0.09% 1111 401 65
Shotaro Ban 0.51% 196 141 56
Shunichiro Morioka 0.32% 313 351 116
Siddikur Rahman 0.91% 110 61 15
Soomin Lee 3.50% 29 19 37
Steve Lewton 3.97% 25 19 68
Sung-Po Yu 0.11% 909 251 103
Sun-Yi Lu 0.03% 3333 301 49
Suradit Yongcharoenchai 1.38% 72 56 121
Tanapat Pichaikool 1.13% 88 81 68
Tawit Polthai 0.96% 104 46 27
Teng Kao 0.25% 400 226 98
Ting-Wei Hsieh 0.35% 286 111 27
Todd Sinnott 1.68% 60 91 0.60% 15 -0.6 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tse-Yu Chang 0.03% 3333 251 98
Tsung-Yu Tsai 0.02% 5000 251 63
Tzu-Hao Tseng 0.08% 1250 401 67
Varanyu Rattanaphiboonkij 0.21% 476 176 79
Viraj Madappa 0.58% 172 101 53
Warun Ieamgaew 0.99% 101 81 52
Wei-Cheng Shen 0.11% 909 201 27
Wei-Chih Lu 0.50% 200 201 56
Wei-Lun Chang 4.07% 25 29 0.60% 42 -0.6 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wei-Sheng Chen 0.08% 1250 301 68
William Harrold 0.14% 714 351 61
Witchayapat Sinsrang 0.26% 385 176 93
Wocheng Ye 0.16% 625 141 93
Wooyoung Cho 1.10% 91 81 6
Yen-Hung Liu 0.12% 833 126 13
Yi-Tong Chen 0.14% 714 151 86
Yi-Tseng Huang 0.36% 278 126 27
Yu-Chen Yeh 0.09% 1111 151 9
Yu-Cheng Ho 0.15% 667 176 86
Yu-Cheng Hsu 0.03% 3333 351 79
Yu-Chia Chiu 0.00% 10000 751 115
Yu-Jui Liu 0.04% 2500 201 93
Yung-Hua Liu 1.65% 61 41 24
Yung-Lung Lin 0.02% 5000 301 121
Yuta Yoshikuwa 0.24% 417 401 63

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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