Simulation Results: Singapore Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Ahmad Baig	0.01%	10000	151		17
Aidric Chan	0.00%	10000	1001		26
Ajeetesh Sandhu	0.13%	769	226		72
Andi Xu	0.01%	10000	501		72
Andy Ogletree	2.94%	34	67	1.50%	12	-1.5	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angelo Que	0.01%	10000	501		130
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai	0.01%	10000	276		48
Austen Truslow	1.21%	83	29		43
Berry Henson	0.01%	10000	451		95
Bjorn Hellgren	0.39%	256	67		9
Brayden Lee	0.01%	10000	751		56
Brett Rankin	0.00%	10000	401		72
Caleb Surratt	7.36%	14	21	2.70%	9	-2.7	Bet365: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron John	0.41%	244	41		2
Carl Jano Corpus	0.01%	10000	401		83
Carlos Pigem	0.01%	10000	501		95
Carson Herron	0.00%	10000	501		137
Chapchai Nirat	0.03%	3333	201		65
Charles Porter	0.02%	5000	161		48
Charlie Lindh	0.19%	526	101		111
Charng-Tai Sudsom	0.00%	10000	301		33
Chase Koepka	0.08%	1250	71		95
Chieh-Po Lee	0.46%	217	111		56
Chien-Yao Hung	0.16%	625	176		72
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam	0.19%	526	141		95
Christopher Wood	0.00%	10000	501		106
Cory Crawford	0.01%	10000	401		17
Danthai Boonma	0.47%	213	61		43
David Boote	0.00%	10000	1001		83
Dengshan Koh	0.00%	10000	1251		120
Dennis Lim	0.00%	10000			138
Denzel Ieremia	0.00%	10000	501
Deon Germishuys	0.21%	476	71		106
Dominic Foos	0.36%	278	176		64
Doyeob Mun	0.78%	128	111		6
Ekpharit Wu	0.25%	400	81		48
Ervin Chang	0.04%	2500	251		120
Finlay Mason	0.00%	10000	1001		83
Frederik Kjettrup	0.01%	10000	451		17
Gaganjeet Bhullar	0.09%	1111	126		26
Gregory Foo	0.00%	10000	751		120
Gunn Charoenkul	0.07%	1429	251		111
Harrison Crowe	0.01%	10000	451		37
Henry Chung	0.00%	10000	1001		111
Henry Lee	0.01%	10000	501		65
Hongtaek Kim	0.65%	154	126		56
Ian Snyman	0.76%	132	76		43
Itthipat Buranatanyarat	0.00%	10000	351		26
Jack Buchanan	0.06%	1667			72
Jack Thompson	0.16%	625	101		71
Jaco Ahlers	0.41%	244	91		43
James Leow	0.13%	769	141		17
Jazz Janewattananond	1.73%	58	23		3
Jbe Kruger	0.00%	10000	1001		52
Jed Morgan	0.13%	769	226		17
Jeev Milkha Singh	0.00%	10000	1001		142
Jeongwoo Ham	0.28%	357	67		1
Jeunghun Wang	1.04%	96	36		26
John Catlin	0.63%	159	86		17
Jose Luis Ballester	24.20%	4.1	7	11.60%	3	1.16	Boyle Sports: 6/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joseph Pagdin	0.17%	588	176		83
Joshua Yap	0.00%	10000	2501		133
Julian Perico	0.33%	303	56		48
Julien Sale	0.21%	476	176		9
Justin Harding	0.08%	1250	176		111
Justin Quiban	0.01%	10000	351		52
Justin Warren	0.00%	10000	751		26
Karandeep Kochhar	0.15%	667	101		70
Kazuki Higa	2.19%	46	51	0.20%	111	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Yuan	0.18%	556	141		12
Khalid Attieh	0.00%	10000	2001		95
Khavish Varadan	0.07%	1429	226		62
Kieran Vincent	1.35%	74	56		12
Kosuke Hamamoto	0.05%	2000	276		106
Kristoffer Broberg	0.00%	10000	601		67
Lucas Herbert	13.09%	7.6	9	2.20%	95	-2.2	Spreadex: 8/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luis Carrera	0.02%	5000	251		33
Luis Masaveu	2.73%	37	26		12
Luke Schniederjans	0.01%	10000	251		131
M.J. Maguire	0.27%	370	71		37
Marc Hammer	0.06%	1667	351		138
Marc Ong	0.00%	10000	2501		111
Marcus Plunkett	0.09%	1111	301		6
Mardan Mamat	0.00%	10000	1001		126
Martin Vorster	0.37%	270	56		72
Matt Jones	0.51%	196	226	0.10%	83	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Killen	0.09%	1111	101		95
Matthew Cheung	0.01%	10000	401		111
Maverick Antcliff	0.13%	769	176
Maximilian Rottluff	0.30%	333	161		142
Micah Shin	0.03%	3333	176		37
Minchan Kim	0.00%	10000	2001		140
Naraajie E. Ramadhanputra	0.00%	10000	1001		133
Nick Voke	1.09%	92	51		26
Nicklaus Chiam	0.00%	10000	601		95
Niklas Regner	0.00%	10000	451		126
Nopparat Panichphol	0.00%	10000	601		72
Oliver Bekker	0.01%	10000	201		83
Ollie Schniederjans	0.20%	500	131		52
Pablo Ereno Perez	0.05%	2000	61		17
Pavit Tangkamolprasert	1.90%	53	46		37
Peter Uihlein	6.70%	15	17	0.90%	17	-0.9	Boyle Sports: 16/1, 6pl, 1/5
Poom Saksansin	1.47%	68	56		6
Poosit Supupramai	0.02%	5000	176		62
Pukhraj Singh Gill	0.00%	10000	451		26
Qi Wen Wong	0.00%	10000	2501		126
Rashid Khan	0.01%	10000	201		83
Rattanon Wannasrichan	0.05%	2000	151		95
Roberto Lebrija	0.01%	10000	501		106
Ryan Ang	0.01%	10000	276		12
Ryosuke Kinoshita	5.95%	17	17	0.10%	33	-0.1	Spreadex: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
S.S.P. Chawrasia	0.00%	10000	1001		120
Sachin Baisoya	0.02%	5000	251		120
Sadom Kaewkanjana	1.59%	63	36		17
Sam Broadhurst	0.00%	10000	601		56
Santiago De la Fuente	0.11%	909	151		120
Sarit Suwannarut	0.21%	476	61		83
Sarut Vongchaisit	0.12%	833	201		56
Settee Prakongvech	0.05%	2000	276		95
Seungbin Choi	0.12%	833	161		52
Shaurya Bhattacharya	0.03%	3333	401		72
Shergo Al Kurdi	0.00%	10000	1501		111
Shih-Chang Chan	0.00%	10000	501		142
Shiv Kapur	0.00%	10000	751		95
Shubham Jaglan	0.00%	10000	601		140
Sihwan Kim	0.01%	10000	601		83
Steve Lewton	0.10%	1000	251		43
Suradit Yongcharoenchai	0.03%	3333	351		83
Suteepat Prateeptienchai	0.31%	323	81		111
Taichi Kho	0.57%	175	56		83
Tanapat Pichaikool	0.01%	10000	301		131
Tatsunori Shogenji	0.67%	149	71		72
Tawit Polthai	0.00%	10000	501		33
Thanpisit Omsin	0.01%	10000	501		72
Tomohiro Ishizaka	0.96%	104	56		3
Tomoyo Ikemura	0.98%	102	67		56
Travis Smyth	6.25%	16	19	1.00%	72	-1	Bet365: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Troy Storm	0.00%	10000	601		67
Wade Ormsby	1.05%	95	71		37
Wei-Hsuan Wang	0.55%	182	101		83
Will Florimo	0.01%	10000	301		37
Yung-Hua Liu	0.01%	10000	751		69
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.09%	1111	126		126
Yuxin Lin	0.11%	909	201		106

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jose Luis Ballester	24.20%	4.1	7	11.60%	3	0.2	Boyle Sports: 6/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Caleb Surratt	7.36%	14	21	2.70%	9	-2	Bet365: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Lucas Herbert	13.09%	7.6	9	2.20%	95	-2	Spreadex: 8/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.