Simulation Results: Saudi International

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Abraham Ancer 2.08% 48
Adam Bresnu 0.00% 10000
Adrian Meronk 0.29% 345
Anirban Lahiri 1.35% 74
Anthony Kim 0.00% 10000
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai 0.01% 10000
Austen Truslow 0.27% 370
Ben Campbell 0.47% 213
Bio Kim 0.01% 10000
Branden Grace 0.73% 137
Brendan Steele 0.01% 10000
Caleb Surratt 1.24% 81
Cameron Smith 2.23% 45
Cameron Tringale 4.27% 23
Carlos Ortiz 1.14% 88
Charles Howell 1.34% 75
Charlie Lindh 0.04% 2500
Chase Koepka 0.02% 5000
Chieh-Po Lee 0.05% 2000
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam 0.01% 10000
Daniel Van Tonder 0.09% 1111
Danny Lee 0.00% 10000
Danthai Boonma 0.02% 5000
David Puig 8.03% 12
Dean Burmester 1.64% 61
Denzel Ieremia 0.00% 10000
Dominic Foos 0.02% 5000
Doyeob Mun 0.00% 10000
Dustin Johnson 0.41% 244
Ekpharit Wu 0.02% 5000
Faisal Salhab 0.00% 10000
Frederik Kjettrup 0.00% 10000
Graeme McDowell 0.05% 2000
Gunn Charoenkul 0.02% 5000
Harold Varner 0.35% 286
Harrison Crowe 0.00% 10000
Ian Gilligan 0.02% 5000
Ian Snyman 0.13% 769
Issa Abouelela 0.00% 10000
Jack Buchanan 0.00% 10000
Jaco Ahlers 0.16% 625
James Piot 0.16% 625
Jason Kokrak 0.52% 192
Jazz Janewattananond 0.28% 357
Jeunghun Wang 0.10% 1000
Jinichiro Kozuma 0.08% 1250
Joaquin Niemann 4.43% 23
John Catlin 0.92% 109
Jose Luis Ballester 0.30% 333
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.00% 10000
Julien Sale 0.02% 5000
Justin Quiban 0.00% 10000
Kazuki Higa 0.93% 108
Kevin Na 0.02% 5000
Kevin Yuan 0.05% 2000
Khaled Attieh 0.00% 10000
Khalid Alqunaibit 0.00% 10000
Kieran Vincent 0.40% 250
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.49% 204
Louis Oosthuizen 4.49% 22
Lucas Herbert 0.36% 278
Luis Masaveu 0.06% 1667
M.J. Maguire 0.03% 3333
Marc Leishman 2.23% 45
Martin Kaymer 0.02% 5000
Matt Jones 0.83% 120
Matthew Wolff 0.13% 769
Maverick Antcliff 0.03% 3333
Maximilian Rottluff 0.24% 417
Micah Lauren Shin 0.25% 400
Michael Hollick 0.00% 10000
Miguel Tabuena 0.64% 156
Nick Voke 0.00% 10000
Ollie Schniederjans 0.05% 2000
Othman Almulla 0.00% 10000
Patrick Reed 7.52% 13
Paul Casey 0.90% 111
Pavit Tangkamolprasert 0.06% 1667
Peter Uihlein 2.50% 40
Poom Saksansin 0.27% 370
Prince Khaled Saud Al Faisal 0.00% 10000
Rattanon Wannasrichan 0.21% 476
Reda El Hali 0.00% 10000
Richard Bland 0.45% 222
Richard T. Lee 0.20% 500
Ryan Peake 0.00% 10000
Sadom Kaewkanjana 1.09% 92
Sam Horsfield 0.09% 1111
Sampson Zheng 0.13% 769
Santiago De la Fuente 0.04% 2500
Sarit Suwannarut 0.41% 244
Saud Al Sharif 0.00% 10000
Scott Hend 0.05% 2000
Scott Vincent 1.30% 77
Sebastian Munoz 2.43% 41
Seonghyeon Kim 1.20% 83
Sergio Garcia 1.40% 71
Settee Prakongvech 0.00% 10000
Seungbin Choi 0.02% 5000
Shergo Al Kurdi 0.00% 10000
Soomin Lee 0.02% 5000
Stefano Mazzoli 0.19% 526
Steve Lewton 0.03% 3333
Suteepat Prateeptienchai 0.21% 476
Taichi Kho 0.05% 2000
Talor Gooch 0.49% 204
Thomas Pieters 6.33% 16
Tom McKibbin 8.96% 11
Tomoyo Ikemura 0.14% 714
Travis Smyth 0.67% 149
Tyrrell Hatton 17.69% 5.7
Wade Ormsby 0.02% 5000
Wei-Hsuan Wang 0.11% 909
Yosuke Asaji 0.06% 1667
Youssef El Hali 0.00% 10000
Yubin Jang 0.06% 1667
Yurav Premlall 0.01% 10000
Yuta Sugiura 0.13% 769
Zach Bauchou 0.05% 2000
Zhengkai Bai 0.00% 10000

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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