Simulation Results: Philippine Golf Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Ahmad Baig	1.05%	95	56		24
Aidric Chan	0.13%	769	401		111
Ajeetesh Sandhu	0.70%	143	126		39
Andi Xu	0.31%	323	401	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Andy Yoon	0.00%	10000	251		70
Angelo Que	0.43%	233	226		54
Antonio Lascuna	0.06%	1667	501		90
Armand Copok	0.00%	10000	401		142
Arnold Villacencio	0.00%	10000	1251		133
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai	0.84%	119	67		54
Austen Truslow	1.94%	52	36		9
Berry Henson	0.74%	135	161	0.10%	97	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/5
Bio Kim	1.18%	85	76		71
Bowen Xiao	0.54%	185	126		80
Brycen Ko	0.00%	10000	251		48
Carl Jano Corpus	0.47%	213	81		33
Carson Herron	1.08%	93	351	0.80%	54	-0.8	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
Charles Porter	2.57%	39	36		60
Charlie Lindh	1.08%	93	61		13
Chase Koepka	1.71%	58	56		54
Chieh-Po Lee	1.83%	55	46		97
Chien-Yao Hung	0.67%	149	51		5
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam	0.93%	108	51		67
Chris Remata	0.00%	10000	201		104
Clyde Mondilla	0.03%	3333	1501		67
Daichi Kobayashi	0.00%	10000	401		136
Danthai Boonma	1.50%	67	46		104
David Boote	0.17%	588	401		48
Denzel Ieremia	0.62%	161	126		97
Dino Villanueva	0.03%	3333	1501		111
Edison Tabalin	0.00%	10000	401		140
Ekpharit Wu	1.28%	78	31		24
Elee Bisera	0.00%	10000	1501		138
Enrique Dimayuga	0.52%	192	201		39
Ervin Chang	1.37%	73	76	0.10%	5	0.146875	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fidel Concepcion	0.00%	10000	601		24
Finlay Mason	0.19%	526	151		51
Francis Morilla	0.00%	10000	1001		111
Gabriel Manotoc	0.01%	10000	1251		97
Geoffrey Tan	0.00%	10000	301		141
Gerald Rosales	0.14%	714	2001	0.10%	122	-0.1	Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/5
Gregory Foo	0.07%	1429	401		97
Gunn Charoenkul	1.17%	85	46		118
Guxin Chen	0.31%	323			19
Harrison Crowe	0.43%	233	226		60
Henry Chung	0.20%	500	401		90
Henry Lee	0.02%	5000	101		111
Hongtaek Kim	0.53%	189	161		51
Ian Snyman	1.57%	64	46		5
Itthipat Buranatanyarat	0.40%	250	226		13
Jack Thompson	1.22%	82	67		19
James Leow	0.26%	385	67		13
James Piot	1.89%	53	36		13
James Ryan Lam	0.00%	10000	1501		97
Jazz Janewattananond	3.93%	25	12		33
Jbe Kruger	0.31%	323	201		104
Jed Morgan	0.73%	137	101		60
Jeff Lumbo	0.05%	2000	1501		122
Jeunghun Wang	1.80%	56	31		39
Jhonnel Ababa	0.02%	5000	1251		73
Jinichiro Kozuma	2.22%	45	36		33
Jonathan Wijono	0.78%	128	141	0.10%	80	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jose Toledo	0.83%	120	91
Juan Laurel	0.00%	10000	401		122
Justin De Los Santos	0.85%	118	801	0.70%	104	-0.7	Bet365: 800/1, 5pl, 1/5
Justin Quiban	0.60%	167	76		104
Justin Warren	0.08%	1250	301		67
Karandeep Kochhar	0.47%	213	176		4
Keanu Jahns	0.13%	769	101		9
Kevin Yuan	2.10%	48	29		24
Khalid Attieh	0.01%	10000	1251		118
Khavish Varadan	0.28%	357	176		39
Kosuke Hamamoto	0.63%	159	111		80
Kristoffer Broberg	0.18%	556	201		80
Lloyd Jefferson Go	0.13%	769	351		122
Marc Hammer	0.52%	192	501	0.30%	5	4.425	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcus Plunkett	0.58%	172	176		24
Mars Pucay	0.00%	10000	1501		80
Marvin Dumandan	0.00%	10000	1251		137
Matt Killen	0.52%	192	56		24
Matthew Cheung	0.88%	114	81		131
Maverick Antcliff	0.81%	123	141	0.10%	33	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/5
Micah Shin	2.49%	40	41	0.10%			Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Michael Bibat	0.05%	2000	1501		118
Minchan Kim	0.00%	10000	126		80
Naraajie E. Ramadhanputra	0.13%	769	301		80
Niklas Regner	0.34%	294	226
Nilo Salahog	0.05%	2000	201		111
Nopparat Panichphol	0.40%	250	201		90
Pavit Tangkamolprasert	1.85%	54	31		2
Perry Bucay	0.00%	10000	301		122
Poom Saksansin	3.04%	33	23		51
Poosit Supupramai	0.67%	149	51		9
Prom Meesawat	0.67%	149	251	0.30%	54	-0.3	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Rashid Khan	0.15%	667	401		67
Rattanon Wannasrichan	2.71%	37	23		13
Reymon Jaraula	0.01%	10000	1501		133
Rico Depilo	0.00%	10000	1251		118
Roberto Lebrija	0.37%	270	251		33
Rolando Bregente	0.00%	10000	126		80
Ronel Taga-an	0.00%	10000	501		139
Runchanapong Youprayong	1.82%	55	401	1.60%	80	-1.6	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Rupert Zaragosa	0.03%	3333	1001		39
Russel Bautista	0.01%	10000	101		135
Ryan Monsalve	0.02%	5000	1501		111
Sam Broadhurst	0.22%	455	201		39
Sampson Zheng	2.69%	37			33
Sarit Suwannarut	2.58%	39	29		19
Sarut Vongchaisit	1.05%	95	71		19
Scott Hend	0.62%	161	34		97
Sean Ramos	0.38%	263	201		122
Senshou Cao	0.07%	1429	401		132
Settee Prakongvech	0.73%	137	56		54
Seungmin Kim	0.13%	769	151		104
Shaurya Bhattacharya	1.34%	75	51		54
Shih-Chang Chan	0.92%	109	91		64
Shubham Jaglan	1.42%	70	126	0.60%	39	-0.6	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Shun Yat Hak	0.19%	526	301		66
Siddikur Rahman	1.00%	100			19
Sihwan Kim	0.27%	370	301		122
Solomon Gines	0.00%	10000	401		122
Soomin Lee	0.67%	149	46		90
Steve Lewton	0.94%	106	76		111
Suradit Yongcharoenchai	0.87%	115	67		13
Suteepat Prateeptienchai	1.39%	72	46		24
Taichi Kho	2.02%	50	41		90
Tanapat Pichaikool	0.82%	122	76		48
Tawit Polthai	0.30%	333	126		90
Thanapol Charoensuk	0.36%	278	251		71
Thanpisit Omsin	0.13%	769	251		39
Todd Sinnott	0.91%	110	76		54
Tomohiro Ishizaka	1.28%	78	46		24
Tomoyo Ikemura	0.89%	112	41		24
Travis Smyth	3.47%	29	26		3
Wei-Cheng Shen	0.12%	833	351		122
Wei-Hsuan Wang	2.58%	39	29		9
Will Florimo	0.24%	417	126		66
Wooyoung Cho	0.71%	141	41		1
Yung-Hua Liu	0.50%	200	201		104
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.81%	123	81		66
Yuxin Lin	0.19%	526	101		60
Zanie Boy Gialon	0.00%	10000	1501		90
Zhengkai Bai	0.34%	294	201		80
Zihao Jin	0.49%	204	276	0.10%	64	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/5

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Runchanapong Youprayong	1.82%	55	401	1.60%	80	-2	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Carson Herron	1.08%	93	351	0.80%	54	-2	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Justin De Los Santos	0.85%	118	801	0.70%	104	-2	Bet365: 800/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.