Simulation Results: International Series Morocco

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	10.75%	9.3	10	0.80%	22	-0.8	BetMGM: 9/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ahmad Baig	0.04%	2500	176		22
Ajeetesh Sandhu	0.00%	10000	501		61
Andi Xu	0.03%	3333	401		101
Andy Ogletree	0.45%	222	101		37
Anirban Lahiri	2.12%	47	51	0.20%	76	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Aryan Roopa Anand	0.00%	10000	1501		146
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai	0.02%	5000	226		147
Austen Truslow	2.17%	46	41		154
Ben Campbell	1.31%	76	56		112
Berry Henson	0.01%	10000	501		76
Bjorn Hellgren	0.12%	833	176		37
Bowen Xiao	0.01%	10000	601		89
Branden Grace	12.27%	8.1	11	3.50%	14	-3.5	Boyle Sports: 10/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett Rankin	0.00%	10000	1001		14
Bubba Watson	1.70%	59	34		2
Byeong Hun An	4.30%	23	17		22
Cameron John	0.01%	10000	81		76
Cameron Tringale	2.20%	45	46		30
Carl Jano Corpus	0.00%	10000	601		52
Carlos Pigem	0.01%	10000	751		141
Carson Herron	0.00%	10000	1001		122
Chapchai Nirat	0.01%	10000	601		76
Charles Porter	0.15%	667	126		152
Charles Wang	0.00%	10000	501		89
Charlie Lindh	0.89%	112	67		122
Charng-Tai Sudsom	0.04%	2500	251		153
Chase Koepka	0.15%	667	101		101
Chieh-Po Lee	0.37%	270	91		22
Chien-Yao Hung	0.08%	1250	71		48
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam	0.06%	1667	176		37
Christopher Wood	0.00%	10000	1001		70
Cory Crawford	0.01%	10000	401		112
Danthai Boonma	0.13%	769	91		10
David Boote	0.00%	10000	601		122
Denzel Ieremia	0.01%	10000	501		112
Dominic Foos	0.05%	2000	176		70
Doyeob Mun	1.13%	88	46		31
Ekpharit Wu	0.41%	244	81		31
Elvis Smylie	0.44%	227	51		5
Ervin Chang	0.02%	5000			112
Faisal Salhab	0.00%	10000			75
Finlay Mason	0.00%	10000	1251		89
Frederik Kjettrup	0.00%	10000	501		52
Gaganjeet Bhullar	0.49%	204	126		31
Gary Stal	0.00%	10000	1001		149
Grant Haefner	0.01%	10000	401		14
Gregory Foo	0.00%	10000	501		76
Gunn Charoenkul	0.01%	10000	501		101
Harrison Crowe	0.02%	5000	301		154
Henry Chung	0.03%	3333	601		61
Henry Lee	0.01%	10000	401		48
Herman Loubser	0.01%	10000	601		101
Hugo Mazen Trommetter	0.00%	10000	751		101
Ian Snyman	2.82%	35	29		5
Itthipat Buranatanyarat	0.00%	10000	501		28
Jack Thompson	0.01%	10000	301		48
Jaco Ahlers	1.06%	94	81		48
James Leow	0.06%	1667	251		52
James Marchesani	0.00%	10000	201		89
Jazz Janewattananond	0.63%	159	67		3
Jbe Kruger	0.01%	10000	301		101
Jed Morgan	0.05%	2000	176		42
Jeunghun Wang	2.78%	36	23		37
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.38%	72	56		14
John Catlin	1.39%	72	61		31
Jose Toledo	0.01%	10000	401		60
Joseph Pagdin	0.00%	10000	601		122
Julien Sale	0.13%	769	176		14
Justin Harding	0.07%	1429	161		58
Justin Quiban	0.00%	10000	501		52
Justin Warren	0.00%	10000	501		52
Karandeep Kochhar	0.06%	1667	176		61
Kevin Yuan	0.10%	1000	251		9
Khalid Attieh	0.00%	10000	1501		138
Khavish Varadan	0.06%	1667	601		37
Kieran Vincent	1.10%	91	46		5
Lloyd Jefferson Go	0.03%	3333	251		122
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.11%	909	351		58
Luis Masaveu	0.96%	104	61		122
M.J. Maguire	0.22%	455	126		112
Marc Hammer	0.02%	5000	501		61
Marcus Plunkett	0.44%	227	126		42
Matt Jones	0.05%	2000	201		22
Matt Killen	0.05%	2000	176		89
Matthew Cheung	0.07%	1429	176		134
Maverick Antcliff	0.06%	1667	226		112
Maximilian Rottluff	0.04%	2500	276		76
Micah Shin	0.12%	833	276
Michael La Sasso	0.05%	2000	176		76
Miguel Tabuena	0.55%	182	126		76
Minchan Kim	0.00%	10000	2501		143
Mohamed Nizar Bourehim	0.00%	10000	1501		112
Naraajie E. Ramadhanputra	0.00%	10000	2001		143
Nick Voke	0.29%	345	56		89
Niklas Regner	0.00%	10000	501		122
Nopparat Panichphol	0.01%	10000	351		134
Oliver Bekker	0.00%	10000	501		149
Ollie Schniederjans	0.03%	3333	201		42
Othman Almulla	0.00%	10000	1501		134
Pavit Tangkamolprasert	0.24%	417	251		10
Poom Saksansin	1.19%	84	71		122
Poosit Supupramai	0.01%	10000	251		89
Rashid Khan	0.01%	10000	351		143
Rattanon Wannasrichan	0.04%	2500	251		112
Richard T. Lee	2.51%	40	34		70
Roberto Lebrija	0.01%	10000	401		134
Runchanapong Youprayong	0.37%	270	41		89
Ryan Peake	0.05%	2000	276		76
S.S.P. Chawrasia	0.00%	10000	751		76
Sadom Kaewkanjana	1.04%	96	61		28
Sam Broadhurst	0.03%	3333	251		61
Sampson Zheng	0.26%	385			31
Santiago De la Fuente	0.09%	1111	126		76
Sarit Suwannarut	0.45%	222	101		101
Sarut Vongchaisit	0.05%	2000	251		42
Scott Vincent	20.03%	5	11	12.00%	10	-12	Coral: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sergio Garcia	7.95%	13	9		76
Settee Prakongvech	0.06%	1667	176		89
Shaurya Bhattacharya	0.02%	5000	501		76
Shergo Al Kurdi	0.00%	10000	2001		101
Shih-Chang Chan	0.00%	10000	751		89
Shubham Jaglan	0.00%	10000	1501		154
Shun Yat Hak	0.00%	10000	251		70
Steve Lewton	0.13%	769	141		19
Suradit Yongcharoenchai	0.02%	5000	751		42
Suteepat Prateeptienchai	0.07%	1429	251		3
Taichi Kho	1.61%	62	51		1
Takanori Konishi	0.00%	10000	251		5
Tanapat Pichaikool	0.00%	10000	251		74
Tawit Polthai	0.00%	10000	601		61
Thanapol Charoensuk	0.00%	10000	1251		31
Thanpisit Omsin	0.00%	10000	751		61
Tomohiro Ishizaka	1.03%	97	61		89
Tomoyo Ikemura	0.82%	122	71		112
Travis Smyth	2.29%	44	41		19
Udayan Mane	0.00%	10000	1001		151
Wade Ormsby	0.16%	625	126		61
Wei-Hsuan Wang	0.07%	1429	176		22
Wei-Lun Chang	0.09%	1111	176		61
Will Florimo	0.02%	5000	251		42
Yosuke Asaji	0.30%	333	151		101
Young-Han Song	2.02%	50	46		10
Yung-Hua Liu	0.00%	10000	501		138
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.03%	3333	251		89
Yuxin Lin	0.01%	10000	251		19
Zhengkai Bai	0.00%	10000	501		122
Zihao Jin	0.10%	1000	81		122

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Scott Vincent	20.03%	5	11	12.00%	10	-2	Coral: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Branden Grace	12.27%	8.1	11	3.50%	14	-2	Boyle Sports: 10/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Abraham Ancer	10.75%	9.3	10	0.80%	22	-2	BetMGM: 9/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.