Simulation Results: Korea Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	9.49%	11	15	3.00%	5	0.375	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andy Ogletree	3.15%	32	56	1.40%	86	-1.4	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai	0.06%	1667	301		54
Austen Truslow	0.86%	116	46		13
Baekjun Kim	0.63%	159	41		60
Beomjin Kim	0.00%	10000			138
Bio Kim	0.28%	357	81		46
Bubba Watson	2.06%	49	34		90
Cameron John	0.45%	222	46		124
Chaeuk Im	0.00%	10000	501		124
Chan Choi	0.51%	196	41		120
Chang-Gi Lee	0.00%	10000			51
Chanmin Jung	0.33%	303	41		17
Chan-Woo Kim	0.02%	5000			5
Charles Porter	0.09%	1111	201		58
Charlie Lindh	0.22%	455	176		2
Chase Koepka	0.67%	149	41		73
Chieh-Po Lee	2.24%	45	71	0.80%	26	-0.8	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam	0.45%	222	141		57
Danny Lee	0.07%	1429	126		90
Danthai Boonma	0.42%	238	56		48
Denzel Ieremia	0.01%	10000	751		102
Dominic Foos	0.12%	833	161		13
Donghwan Lee	0.02%	5000	201		62
Donghyeok Joung	0.00%	10000			140
Dongmin Lee	0.07%	1429	151		17
Doyeob Mun	3.83%	26	17		10
Doyeon Hwang	0.01%	10000	301		62
Ekpharit Wu	0.32%	313	71		90
Eunshin Park	0.43%	233	61		73
Garam Jeon	0.06%	1667	201		34
Gunn Charoenkul	0.03%	3333	251		62
Gunwoong Park	0.00%	10000	351		107
Gwanwoo Ma	0.00%	10000	401		86
Haecheon An	0.00%	10000	81		62
Hakhyung Kim	0.03%	3333	141		13
Hanmil Jung	0.05%	2000	126		17
Heejun Yang	0.00%	10000	501		102
Heemin Chang	0.17%	588	111		86
Hongtaek Kim	1.42%	70	41		90
Hyungjoon Lee	0.07%	1429	176		26
Hyunjoon Yoo	0.00%	10000	401		102
Hyunseo Park	0.00%	10000	201		34
Hyunuk Kim	0.00%	10000	1001		141
Ian Snyman	5.46%	18	31	2.30%	10	-2.3	Bet365: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Il-Hwan Park	0.13%	769	91		73
Inchoon Hwang	0.00%	10000	501		117
Inhoi Hur	0.05%	2000	151		62
Jack Thompson	0.15%	667	141		31
Jaehan Chun	0.00%	10000	351		86
Jaeho Kim	0.01%	10000	151		143
Jaehyun Jung	0.10%	1000	67		46
Jaemin Hwang 859	0.01%	10000	201		51
Jaewoong Eom	0.16%	625	91		124
Jazz Janewattananond	2.10%	48	23		73
Jbe Kruger	0.06%	1667	81		113
Jed Morgan	0.04%	2500	101		34
Jeongwoo Ham	6.59%	15	23	2.30%	58	-2.3	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeunghun Wang	3.80%	26	23		3
Jeyi Son	0.00%	10000	61		136
Jiho Yang	0.04%	2500	176		1
Jinbo Ha	0.00%	10000	251		129
Jin-Ho Choi	0.92%	109	36		23
Jinjae Byun	0.00%	10000	401		120
John Catlin	4.60%	22	31	1.40%	62	-1.4	Bet365: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jongmin Jang	0.00%	10000	301		113
Jung Hun Park	0.00%	10000	101		26
Junghwan Lee	3.62%	28	29	0.20%	10	-0.2	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Junhong Park	0.00%	10000	301		138
Junseok Lee	0.00%	10000	401		120
Justin Quiban	0.00%	10000	301		124
Kevin Yuan	0.32%	313	141		113
Kieran Vincent	2.22%	45	29		51
Kristoffer Broberg	0.00%	10000	401		90
Kyongjun Moon	0.18%	556	151		117
Kyungnam Kang	1.15%	87	46		34
Kyungnam Park	0.00%	10000	401		62
Kyu-Tae Park	0.00%	10000			129
M.J. Maguire	0.15%	667	101		48
Maverick Antcliff	0.18%	556	176		34
Micah Shin	0.12%	833	151		73
Minchel Choi	0.01%	10000	176		31
Minhyeok Yu	0.00%	10000	151		23
Minhyuk Song	0.64%	156	36		73
Minjun Kim	0.02%	5000	251		45
Minkyu Kim	1.07%	93	31		61
Minsu Kim (May2008)	0.32%	313	251		8
Minsu Kim 921	0.04%	2500	51		90
Ollie Schniederjans	0.32%	313	126		90
Osang Kwon	0.00%	10000	176		73
Pavit Tangkamolprasert	0.98%	102	71		39
Poom Saksansin	1.99%	50	51		107
Rattanon Wannasrichan	0.40%	250	141		73
Richard T. Lee	7.14%	14	13		73
Rodrigo Lee	0.01%	10000	226		107
S.S.P. Chawrasia	0.00%	10000	1001		120
Sampson Zheng	1.48%	68			124
Sanghee Lee	0.58%	172	81		26
Sanghun Shin	4.40%	23	26	0.60%	26	-0.6	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sanghyun Park	0.59%	169	61		90
Sangmoon Bae	0.06%	1667	251		3
Sang-Yeop Lee	0.07%	1429	141		73
Santiago De la Fuente	0.40%	250	81		31
Sarit Suwannarut	0.78%	128	76		107
Sarut Vongchaisit	0.16%	625	226		17
Seohyun Yeom	0.00%	10000			62
Seonghyeon Jeon	0.03%	3333	351		17
Seonghyeon Kim	6.70%	15	13		8
Seongje Park	0.00%	10000	601		39
Settee Prakongvech	0.01%	10000	251		117
Seukhyun Baek	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Seungchan Lee	0.00%	10000	351		73
Seunggu Kang	0.00%	10000	201		102
Seungsu Han	0.04%	2500	201		39
Seungtaek Oh	0.36%	278	51		48
Sihwan Kim	0.00%	10000	501
Simon Lee	0.00%	10000	601		134
Songgyu Yoo	0.44%	227	56		90
Soomin Lee	0.49%	204	91		7
Steve Lewton	0.57%	175	101		55
Sungho Lee	0.00%	10000	301		17
Sungjin Yeo	0.00%	10000	401		73
Sungkug Park	0.03%	3333	141		136
Suradit Yongcharoenchai	0.11%	909	141		55
Suteepat Prateeptienchai	0.17%	588	111		39
Taehee Lee	0.49%	204	67		62
Taehoon Ok	3.58%	28	29	0.10%	113	-0.1	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tae-Hoon Song	0.00%	10000	601		39
Taejun Joung	0.00%	10000			129
Taichi Kho	0.61%	164	81		13
Woo-Hyun Kim	0.12%	833			129
Woojin Cha	0.00%	10000			90
Wooyoung Cho	0.07%	1429	81		107
Yeongsu Kim	0.03%	3333	351		62
Yetaek Lim	0.00%	10000	276		90
Yikeun Chang	0.00%	10000	401		73
Yongtae Kim	0.01%	10000	251		141
Young-Gyu Park	0.00%	10000	301		62
Yubin Jang	3.74%	27	29	0.30%	23	-0.3	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yujun Jung	0.01%	10000	401		107
Yulgyeom Cha	0.00%	10000			39
Yunseok Kang	0.16%	625	226		143
Yustin Lee	0.00%	10000	226		90
Zhengkai Bai	0.01%	10000	301		129

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Abraham Ancer	9.49%	11	15	3.00%	5	0.25	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jeongwoo Ham	6.59%	15	23	2.30%	58	-2	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ian Snyman	5.46%	18	31	2.30%	10	-2	Bet365: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.