Simulation Results: International Series Japan

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wilkin 0.08% 1250 501 108
Aguri Iwasaki 0.45% 222 81 56
Ahmad Baig 0.06% 1667 351 39
Ajeetesh Sandhu 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 108 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai 0.16% 625 501 5
Austen Truslow 0.26% 385 301 108
Bio Kim 0.19% 526 301 56
Bjorn Hellgren 0.56% 179 251 0.20% 17 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bowen Xiao 0.38% 263 301 147
Brett Rankin 0.02% 5000 1501 39
Caleb Surratt 2.88% 35 29 31
Cameron Tringale 5.85% 17 23 1.60% 4 3.6 Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Changwoo Lee 0.06% 1667 501 76
Chanmin Jung 0.07% 1429 501 95
Chapchai Nirat 0.10% 1000 501 108
Charlie Lindh 0.35% 286 251 131
Charng-Tai Sudsom 0.07% 1429 601 144
Chase Koepka 1.55% 65 151 0.90% 108 -0.9 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam 0.61% 164 161 51
Christopher Hickman 0.01% 10000 1501 147
Daihan Lee 0.19% 526 501 140
Danthai Boonma 0.56% 179 151 95
David Horsey 0.39% 256 226 51
Denwit David Boriboonsub 0.22% 455 251 76
Denzel Ieremia 0.16% 625 401 155
Dodge Kemmer 0.05% 2000 1001 131
Dominic Foos 0.19% 526 401 31
Doyeob Mun 0.61% 164 81 39
Ekpharit Wu 0.07% 1429 1001 95
Ervin Chang 0.07% 1429 1501 39
Eunshin Park 0.32% 313 201 23
Faisal Salhab 0.00% 10000 2501 68
Frederik Kjettrup 0.36% 278 176 108
Gaganjeet Bhullar 0.67% 149 126 39
Galam Jeon 0.09% 1111 751 147
Gary Stal 0.02% 5000 501 125
George Kneiser 0.02% 5000 1001 56
Gunn Charoenkul 0.94% 106 151 0.30% 39 -0.3 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Guntaek Koh 0.60% 167 51 61
Hideto Tanihara 0.22% 455 251 108
Hiroshi Iwata 1.14% 88 51 27
Hongtaek Kim 0.10% 1000 501 31
Ian Snyman 0.67% 149 151 39
Itthipat Buranatanyarat 0.19% 526 351 23
Jack Buchanan 0.11% 909 251 125
Jack Thompson 0.14% 714 251 68
Jaco Ahlers 0.88% 114 126 0.10% 144 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jaewoong Eom 0.17% 588 301 31
Jakkanat Inmee 0.06% 1667 501 153
James Piot 0.54% 185 201 131
Jazz Janewattananond 1.36% 74 51 27
Jbe Kruger 0.27% 370 251 74
Jediah Morgan 0.44% 227 251 14
Jeev Milkha Singh 0.01% 10000 1501 76
Jeunghun Wang 0.44% 227 226 17
Jinichiro Kozuma 1.68% 60 26 7
Joel Stalter 0.18% 556 401 71
John Catlin 1.96% 51 41 95
Jose Toledo 0.16% 625 501 14
Julien Sale 0.44% 227 251 131
Junggon Hwang 0.54% 185 161 152
Junghwan Lee 1.12% 89 81 51
Kazuki Higa 1.83% 55 23 17
Kelvin Si 2.80% 36 251 2.40% 61 -2.4 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Yuan 0.31% 323 201 131
Khaled Attieh 0.00% 10000 2501 76
Kieran Vincent 1.21% 83 67 12
Koshiro Maeda 0.26% 385 301 76
Kosuke Hamamoto 0.29% 345 251 95
Kota Kaneko 1.36% 74 51 76
Kyungnam Kang 0.67% 149 126 76
Lawry Flynn 0.02% 5000 1251 67
Lucas Herbert 6.55% 15 9.5 1
M.J. Maguire 0.46% 217 201 76
Manav Shah 0.12% 833 501 108
Mardan Mamat 0.01% 10000 1501 150
Masato Sumiuchi 0.03% 3333 201 150
Matthew Cheung 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 27 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maverick Antcliff 0.52% 192 201 76
Maximilian Rottluff 1.29% 78 151 0.60% 95 -0.6 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Micah Lauren Shin 0.46% 217 276 0.10% 39 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Hendry 0.75% 133 151 0.10% 76 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miguel Carballo 0.09% 1111 501 108
Miguel Tabuena 1.74% 57 56 76
Mikiya Akutsu 0.44% 227 151 125
Mikumu Horikawa 0.81% 123 41 9
Mingyu Cho 0.09% 1111 501 61
Mito Pereira 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 31 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Naoyuki Kataoka 0.74% 135 67 31
Nick Voke 0.81% 123 101 12
Nitithorn Thippong 0.17% 588 501 73
Pavit Tangkamolprasert 0.39% 256 351 0.10% 76 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Pawin Ingkhapradit 0.02% 5000 1001 131
Peter Uihlein 3.65% 27 46 1.50% 76 -1.5 10Bet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phachara Khongwatmai 0.64% 156 126 51
Poom Saksansin 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 65 -0.1 Unibet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Poosit Supupramai 0.07% 1429 601 56
Prom Meesawat 0.06% 1667 751 125
Rahil Gangjee 0.06% 1667 751 108
Rattanon Wannasrichan 0.15% 667 126 95
Ren Yonezawa 1.12% 89 41 39
Richard T. Lee 1.97% 51 34 39
Riki Kawamoto 0.58% 172 126 31
Roberto Lebrija 0.04% 2500 1501 140
Ryo Ishikawa 1.00% 100 56 95
Ryutaro Nagano 0.45% 222 176 71
S.S.P. Chawrasia 0.22% 455 501 68
Sadom Kaewkanjana 2.13% 47 46 95
Sam Horsfield 1.33% 75 81 0.10% 7 -0.1 QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sampson Zheng 0.62% 161 17
Sanghee Lee 1.65% 61 34 108
Sangmoon Bae 0.18% 556 351 95
Sarit Suwannarut 0.56% 179 176 17
Satoshi Kodaira 0.24% 417 176 27
Scott Hend 0.22% 455 251 131
Scott Vincent 2.56% 39 26 95
Settee Prakongvech 0.22% 455 401 76
Seungsu Han 0.25% 400 176 95
Shih-Chang Chan 0.39% 256 501 0.20% 23 -0.2 Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shiv Kapur 0.07% 1429 1501 131
Shugo Imahira 1.76% 57 26 9
Shunya Takeyasu 0.37% 270 126 5
Sihwan Kim 0.22% 455 351 108
Soomin Lee 0.33% 303 201 108
Stefano Mazzoli 1.00% 100 81 131
Steve Lewton 0.37% 270 276 39
Suteepat Prateeptienchai 0.51% 196 201 14
Taichi Kho 1.47% 68 51 125
Taiga Semikawa 0.52% 192 67 108
Taihei Sato 0.39% 256 151 76
Taiki Yoshida 0.40% 250 101 52
Taisei Shimizu 0.68% 147 67 125
Takahiro Hataji 0.11% 909 501 156
Takashi Ogiso 0.48% 208 151 17
Takumi Murakami 0.02% 5000 1001 153
Tanapat Pichaikool 0.09% 1111 501 140
Tatsunori Shogenji 1.58% 63 34 76
Todd Sinnott 0.25% 400 301 56
Tom McKibbin 2.99% 33
Tomoyo Ikemura 0.72% 139 101 95
Travis Smyth 2.09% 48 41 23
Varanyu Rattanaphiboonkij 0.10% 1000 501 144
Wade Ormsby 0.67% 149 176 0.10% 76 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wei-Hsuan Wang 0.12% 833 501 51
Wei-Lun Chang 0.23% 435 501 31
Witchayapat Sinsrang 0.02% 5000 1501 140
Yanwei Liu 0.10% 1000 1001 39
Yeongsu Kim 0.44% 227 151 108
Yosuke Asaji 0.75% 133 81 65
Young-Han Song 0.71% 141 67 2
Yuki Inamori 0.41% 244 81 61
Yung-Hua Liu 0.08% 1250 501 108
Yuta Ikeda 0.11% 909 501 76
Yuta Sugiura 0.32% 313 151 2
Yuvraj Sandhu 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 108 -0.1 QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zhengkai Bai 0.00% 10000 351 9

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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