Simulation Results: International Series Japan

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	0.23%	435	91		29
Ahmad Baig	0.20%	500	151		68
Aidric Chan	0.00%	10000	751		132
Andy Ogletree	0.61%	164	111		12
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai	0.15%	667	201		144
Austen Truslow	2.26%	44	51	0.30%	4	1.725	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Baekjun Kim	0.03%	3333	111		89
Berry Henson	0.00%	10000	401		65
Cameron John	0.25%	400	67		7
Carl Jano Corpus	0.05%	2000	251		132
Carson Herron	0.01%	10000	401		125
Charles Porter	0.04%	2500	151		140
Charles Wang	0.00%	10000	301		97
Charlie Lindh	0.74%	135	111		67
Chieh-Po Lee	0.11%	909	121		38
Chien-Yao Hung	1.44%	69	81	0.20%	65	-0.2	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam	0.13%	769	201		12
Christopher Wood	0.00%	10000	501		140
Cory Crawford	0.02%	5000	301		108
Danthai Boonma	0.60%	167	91		44
Denzel Ieremia	0.01%	10000	401		147
Dominic Foos	0.08%	1250	251		12
Doyeob Mun	0.29%	345	141		80
Doyeon Hwang	0.02%	5000	176		137
Ekpharit Wu	0.33%	303	111		29
Ervin Chang	0.18%	556	161		108
Faisal Salhab	0.00%	10000	2001		144
Finlay Mason	0.00%	10000	501		108
Frederik Kjettrup	0.05%	2000	201		97
Gaganjeet Bhullar	0.42%	238	111		120
Gunn Charoenkul	0.04%	2500	301		44
Harrison Crowe	0.02%	5000			89
Henry Chung	0.00%	10000	751		125
Henry Lee	0.00%	10000	301		60
Hiroshi Iwata	0.21%	476	126		53
Hongtaek Kim	0.16%	625	276		5
Ian Snyman	0.54%	185	91		19
Itthipat Buranatanyarat	0.03%	3333	151		97
Jack Thompson	0.83%	120	91		80
Jaco Ahlers	0.38%	263	91		44
James Leow	0.08%	1250	161		38
Jazz Janewattananond	2.61%	38	41	0.20%	41	-0.2	Unibet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jbe Kruger	0.00%	10000	501		149
Jed Morgan	0.08%	1250	276		29
Jeev Milkha Singh	0.00%	10000	501		70
Jeongwoo Ham	0.05%	2000			29
Jeunghun Wang	1.43%	70	67		137
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.47%	68	76	0.20%	44	-0.2	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Catlin	0.39%	256	81		60
Jose Toledo	0.06%	1667	401
Julian Perico	0.49%	204	81		29
Julien Sale	0.27%	370	176		44
Junggon Hwang	0.02%	5000	151		132
Justin Harding	0.15%	667	101		89
Justin Quiban	0.05%	2000	201		132
Justin Warren	0.00%	10000	751
Jyoti Randhawa	0.00%	10000	1001		132
Kaito Sato	0.00%	10000	401		137
Karandeep Kochhar	0.05%	2000	251		5
Kazuki Higa	3.47%	29	29		56
Kevin Yuan	0.60%	167	111		97
Khalid Attieh	0.00%	10000	1001		120
Khavish Varadan	0.40%	250	126		80
Kieran Vincent	5.18%	19	46	3.10%	72	-3.1	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	2.33%	43	51	0.40%	41	-0.4	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kosuke Hamamoto	0.09%	1111	276		108
Kota Kaneko	2.55%	39	36		12
Kristoffer Broberg	0.01%	10000	501		149
Lloyd Jefferson Go	0.00%	10000	501		125
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.05%	2000	201		72
M.J. Maguire	0.63%	159	67		62
Masanori Kobayashi	0.00%	10000	1001		89
Matt Killen	0.08%	1250	111		125
Maverick Antcliff	0.08%	1250	251		29
Maximilian Rottluff	0.48%	208	126		97
Micah Shin	0.79%	127	111		144
Miguel Tabuena	1.64%	61	81	0.40%	80	-0.4	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mikiya Akutsu	0.03%	3333	201		89
Mikumu Horikawa	0.71%	141	56		22
Minchan Kim	0.00%	10000	1501		152
Minhyuk Song	0.12%	833	91		80
Naraajie E. Ramadhanputra	0.00%	10000	501		148
Nick Voke	2.91%	34	56	1.10%	22	-1.1	Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Niklas Regner	0.01%	10000	176		97
Nopparat Panichphol	0.00%	10000	501		72
Oliver Bekker	0.11%	909	126		108
Ollie Schniederjans	0.11%	909	161		41
Pablo Ereno Perez	0.71%	141	56		71
Pavit Tangkamolprasert	1.81%	55	81	0.60%	2	5.7	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Poom Saksansin	2.22%	45	67	0.70%	22	-0.7	Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Poosit Supupramai	0.20%	500	91		108
Prom Meesawat	0.02%	5000	401		154
Pukhraj Singh Gill	0.00%	10000	401
Rattanon Wannasrichan	0.20%	500	81		120
Ren Yonezawa	1.18%	85	51		38
Richard T. Lee	7.68%	13	29	4.40%	72	-4.4	Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Riki Kawamoto	0.53%	189	67		44
Roberto Lebrija	0.02%	5000	501		97
Ryo Katsumata	0.05%	2000	111		22
Ryosuke Kinoshita	0.89%	112	34		2
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.00%	10000	251		22
S.S.P. Chawrasia	0.00%	10000	501		151
Sadom Kaewkanjana	1.54%	65	51		80
Sam Broadhurst	0.00%	10000	401		72
Sampson Zheng	4.02%	25			12
Sangmoon Bae	0.03%	3333	351		154
Santiago De la Fuente	0.24%	417	111		108
Sarit Suwannarut	3.01%	33	51	1.10%	68	-1.1	William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sarut Vongchaisit	0.37%	270	251		56
Satoshi Kodaira	0.22%	455	111		140
Scott Hend	0.13%	769	126		97
Sean Ramos	0.01%	10000	401		125
Settee Prakongvech	0.07%	1429	126		72
Seungbin Choi	0.27%	370	141		72
Shaurya Bhattacharya	0.22%	455	251		89
Shergo Al Kurdi	0.00%	10000	1501		120
Shih-Chang Chan	0.11%	909	251		152
Shugo Imahira	1.77%	56	46		7
Sihwan Kim	0.00%	10000	501		108
Soomin Lee	0.09%	1111	161		62
Steve Lewton	0.09%	1111	201		89
Suguru Shimoke	0.11%	909	126		80
Suradit Yongcharoenchai	0.07%	1429	201		108
Suteepat Prateeptienchai	1.47%	68	111	0.60%	53	-0.6	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taehoon Ok	0.76%	132	81		80
Taichi Kho	0.59%	169	91		108
Taiga Nagano	0.09%	1111	161		125
Taiga Semikawa	1.08%	93	36		7
Taihei Sato	0.25%	400	81		125
Taiki Yoshida	0.27%	370	71		120
Taisei Shimizu	0.05%	2000	161		80
Takahiro Hataji	0.01%	10000	351		108
Takanori Konishi	0.01%	10000	251		140
Tatsunori Shogenji	0.10%	1000	91		7
Tawit Polthai	0.01%	10000	301		89
Thanpisit Omsin	0.00%	10000	501		64
Tomoyo Ikemura	1.00%	100	81		29
Travis Smyth	7.06%	14	34	4.20%	1	86.625	Unibet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wade Ormsby	0.65%	154	91		12
Wei-Hsuan Wang	0.85%	118	91		44
Wenyi Ding	7.72%	13	17	2.00%	53	-2	QuinnBet: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Florimo	0.05%	2000	251		97
Wooyoung Cho	1.04%	96	91		72
Yonggu Shin	0.03%	3333	201		44
Yongjun Bae	0.18%	556	91		44
Yosuke Asaji	1.92%	52	71	0.50%	12	-0.5	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yosuke Tsukada	0.01%	10000	161		56
Young-Han Song	5.96%	17	46	3.90%	7	-3.9	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yubin Jang	0.20%	500	126		19
Yung-Hua Liu	0.00%	10000	551		108
Yusaku Hosono	0.60%	167	51		29
Yusuke Sakamoto	0.06%	1667	251		56
Yuta Ikeda	0.02%	5000	301		22
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.04%	2500	181		29
Yuxin Lin	0.01%	10000	301		19
Zhengkai Bai	0.04%	2500	276		97

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	0.72%	139	76		32
Ahmad Baig	0.51%	196	81		103
Aidric Chan	0.16%	625	251		103
Andi Xu	0.44%	227			73
Andy Ogletree	0.79%	127	76		9
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai	0.63%	159	111		146
Austen Truslow	1.24%	81	41		32
Baekjun Kim	0.45%	222	76		103
Berry Henson	0.24%	417	176		9
Cameron John	0.62%	161	56		22
Carl Jano Corpus	0.50%	200	126		85
Carson Herron	0.33%	303	176		103
Charles Porter	0.38%	263	76		85
Charles Wang	0.22%	455	126		129
Charlie Lindh	1.00%	100	76		32
Chieh-Po Lee	0.59%	169	81		51
Chien-Yao Hung	1.17%	85	56		32
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam	0.61%	164	111		51
Christopher Wood	0.13%	769	176		129
Cory Crawford	0.37%	270	126		115
Danthai Boonma	0.85%	118	67		51
Denzel Ieremia	0.17%	588	151		115
Dominic Foos	0.47%	213	126		73
Doyeob Mun	0.64%	156	111		73
Doyeon Hwang	0.34%	294	111		129
Ekpharit Wu	0.82%	122	76		32
Ervin Chang	0.68%	147	111		146
Faisal Salhab	0.04%	2500	451		155
Finlay Mason	0.12%	833	176		32
Frederik Kjettrup	0.49%	204	111		85
Gaganjeet Bhullar	0.77%	130	76		103
Gunn Charoenkul	0.47%	213	126		9
Harrison Crowe	0.33%	303			51
Henry Chung	0.16%	625	251		115
Henry Lee	0.18%	556	151		51
Hiroshi Iwata	0.61%	164	81		9
Hongtaek Kim	0.56%	179	126		1
Ian Snyman	0.83%	120	76		32
Itthipat Buranatanyarat	0.46%	217	81		115
Jack Thompson	1.04%	96	67		51
Jaco Ahlers	0.73%	137	67		22
James Leow	0.45%	222	81		32
Jazz Janewattananond	1.28%	78	41		73
Jbe Kruger	0.24%	417	176		151
Jed Morgan	0.44%	227	126		73
Jeev Milkha Singh	0.25%	400	201		85
Jeongwoo Ham	0.43%	233			32
Jeunghun Wang	1.22%	82	56		85
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.05%	95	67		32
John Catlin	0.82%	122	67		4
Jose Toledo	0.39%	256	176
Julian Perico	0.72%	139	56		32
Julien Sale	0.66%	152	111		73
Junggon Hwang	0.40%	250	81		85
Justin Harding	0.60%	167	76		85
Justin Quiban	0.47%	213	111		141
Justin Warren	0.18%	556	201
Jyoti Randhawa	0.05%	2000	251		152
Kaito Sato	0.25%	400	176		150
Karandeep Kochhar	0.41%	244	126		9
Kazuki Higa	1.62%	62	36		51
Kevin Yuan	0.92%	109	76		85
Khalid Attieh	0.09%	1111	301		115
Khavish Varadan	0.72%	139	81		85
Kieran Vincent	1.86%	54	46		32
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	1.44%	69	51		51
Kosuke Hamamoto	0.56%	179	126		115
Kota Kaneko	1.21%	83	36		9
Kristoffer Broberg	0.25%	400	176		152
Lloyd Jefferson Go	0.23%	435	201		129
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.38%	263	111		51
M.J. Maguire	0.85%	118	56		32
Masanori Kobayashi	0.07%	1429	251		51
Matt Killen	0.56%	179	76		129
Maverick Antcliff	0.54%	185	111		51
Maximilian Rottluff	0.93%	108	81		141
Micah Shin	1.02%	98	76		129
Miguel Tabuena	1.12%	89	56		73
Mikiya Akutsu	0.41%	244	111		51
Mikumu Horikawa	0.99%	101	51		22
Minchan Kim	0.04%	2500	451		152
Minhyuk Song	0.60%	167	67		115
Naraajie E. Ramadhanputra	0.16%	625	201		115
Nick Voke	1.59%	63	51		9
Niklas Regner	0.26%	385	111		103
Nopparat Panichphol	0.21%	476	176		22
Oliver Bekker	0.46%	217	81		85
Ollie Schniederjans	0.49%	204	81		115
Pablo Ereno Perez	0.98%	102	51		32
Pavit Tangkamolprasert	1.13%	88	56		9
Poom Saksansin	1.24%	81	56		2
Poosit Supupramai	0.53%	189	67		85
Prom Meesawat	0.37%	270	176		141
Rattanon Wannasrichan	0.71%	141	56		103
Ren Yonezawa	1.18%	85	41		51
Richard T. Lee	2.23%	45	36		32
Riki Kawamoto	0.96%	104	56		73
Roberto Lebrija	0.37%	270	176		32
Ryo Katsumata	0.46%	217	76		51
Ryosuke Kinoshita	0.91%	110	36		22
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.22%	455	111		9
S.S.P. Chawrasia	0.24%	417	201		146
Sadom Kaewkanjana	1.31%	76	51		103
Sam Broadhurst	0.15%	667	176		85
Sampson Zheng	1.58%	63			51
Sangmoon Bae	0.35%	286	176		73
Santiago De La Fuente	0.59%	169	76		115
Sarit Suwannarut	1.31%	76	51		85
Sarut Vongchaisit	0.69%	145	126		85
Satoshi Kodaira	0.75%	133	76		141
Scott Hend	0.52%	192	81		129
Sean Ramos	0.32%	313	176		103
Settee Prakongvech	0.39%	256	81		22
Seungbin Choi	0.55%	182	81		22
Shaurya Bhattacharya	0.72%	139	126		129
Shergo Al Kurdi	0.02%	5000	451		85
Shih-Chang Chan	0.51%	196	126		129
Shugo Imahira	1.13%	88	41		9
Sihwan Kim	0.21%	476	201		146
Soomin Lee	0.53%	189	81		22
Steve Lewton	0.52%	192	111		115
Suguru Shimoke	0.49%	204	76		22
Suradit Yongcharoenchai	0.44%	227	111		51
Suteepat Prateeptienchai	1.28%	78	76		32
Taehoon Ok	1.03%	97	56		85
Taichi Kho	0.83%	120	67		129
Taiga Nagano	0.44%	227	81		51
Taiga Semikawa	1.06%	94	36		32
Taihei Sato	0.72%	139	56		129
Taiki Yoshida	0.80%	125	56		115
Taisei Shimizu	0.38%	263	111		115
Takahiro Hataji	0.33%	303	151		103
Takanori Konishi	0.34%	294	111		129
Tatsunori Shogenji	0.52%	192	76		4
Tawit Polthai	0.26%	385	126		103
Thanpisit Omsin	0.26%	385	201		32
Tomoyo Ikemura	0.90%	111	56		9
Travis Smyth	1.75%	57	36		73
Wade Ormsby	0.83%	120	67		51
Wei-Hsuan Wang	0.86%	116	67		4
Wenyi Ding	2.29%	44	23		9
Will Florimo	0.37%	270	111		85
Wooyoung Cho	0.95%	105	56		141
Yonggu Shin	0.37%	270	111		22
Yongjun Bae	0.54%	185	67		4
Yosuke Asaji	1.19%	84	56		51
Yosuke Tsukada	0.32%	313	81		103
Young-Han Song	1.68%	60	41		2
Yubin Jang	0.58%	172	76		51
Yung-Hua Liu	0.23%	435	201		73
Yusaku Hosono	0.85%	118	46		9
Yusuke Sakamoto	0.37%	270	126		85
Yuta Ikeda	0.29%	345	126		51
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.37%	270	76		73
Yuxin Lin	0.30%	333	151		4
Zhengkai Bai	0.40%	250	126		51

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Richard T. Lee	7.68%	13	29	4.40%	72	-2	Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Travis Smyth	7.06%	14	34	4.20%	1	41.25	Unibet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Young-Han Song	5.96%	17	46	3.90%	7	-2	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.