Simulation Results: Hong Kong Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wilkin 0.00% 10000 601 127
Adrian Meronk 0.49% 204 71 86
Ahmad Baig 0.00% 10000 401 69
Ajeetesh Sandhu 0.01% 10000 401 47
Anirban Lahiri 0.83% 120 67 21
Anthony Kim 0.00% 10000 1001 63
Ashun Wu 0.04% 2500 251 31
Atiruj Winaicharoenchai 0.01% 10000 401 26
Austen Truslow 0.28% 357 126 12
Ben Campbell 0.77% 130 51 59
Bjorn Hellgren 0.08% 1250 201 52
Brett Coletta 0.00% 10000 1001 100
Brett Rankin 0.01% 10000 401 86
Caleb Surratt 1.78% 56 29 100
Carl Yuan 0.03% 3333 126 86
Chanmin Jung 0.00% 10000 1001 69
Chapchai Nirat 0.00% 10000 601 69
Charl Schwartzel 3.04% 33 34 0.10% 14 -0.1 William Hill: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell 0.87% 115 51 9
Charles Porter 0.01% 10000 401 26
Charlie Lindh 0.01% 10000 351 86
Charng-Tai Sudsom 0.00% 10000 401 100
Chase Koepka 0.06% 1667 351 109
Chieh-Po Lee 1.19% 84 71 69
Chien-Yao Hung 0.01% 10000 401 100
Chonlatit Chuenboonngam 0.05% 2000 251 69
Daihan Lee 0.01% 10000 601 86
Danny Lee 0.01% 10000 351 69
Danthai Boonma 0.14% 714 101 86
David Puig 6.72% 15 13 14
Dean Burmester 7.54% 13 21 2.90% 109 -2.9 Skybet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Denzel Ieremia 0.00% 10000 401 65
Dominic Foos 0.05% 2000 201 86
Ekpharit Wu 0.00% 10000 601 14
Ervin Chang 0.00% 10000 501 14
Eugenio Chacarra 2.82% 35 41 0.40% 41 -0.4 Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Faisal Salhab 0.00% 10000 2001 138
Gaganjeet Bhullar 0.39% 256 101 124
Graeme McDowell 0.51% 196 81 69
Gunn Charoenkul 0.03% 3333 276 100
Guntaek Koh 0.02% 5000 601 52
Harold Varner 1.48% 68 56 36
Hiroshi Iwata 0.00% 10000 301 26
Ian Snyman 0.11% 909 201 59
Isaac Lam 0.00% 10000 1001 132
Itthipat Buranatanyarat 0.00% 10000 601 121
Jack Buchanan 0.01% 10000 501 86
Jaco Ahlers 0.09% 1111 201 109
Jaewoong Eom 0.00% 10000 501 69
James Piot 0.06% 1667 301 21
Jason Kokrak 0.41% 244 71 68
Jazz Janewattananond 0.40% 250 101 12
Jbe Kruger 0.00% 10000 601 121
Jediah Morgan 0.00% 10000 501 109
Jeev Milkha Singh 0.00% 10000 1001 109
Jeunghun Wang 0.18% 556 81 52
Jinichiro Kozuma 0.13% 769 251 69
John Catlin 0.38% 263 81 47
Jose Luis Ballester 0.09% 1111 61 14
Jose Toledo 0.01% 10000 501 100
Justin Quiban 0.00% 10000 501 69
Kazuki Higa 3.91% 26 23 36
Kensei Hirata 0.05% 2000 71 26
Kevin Na 0.08% 1250 151 47
Kevin Yuan 0.15% 667 201 86
Khaled Attieh 0.00% 10000 2001 100
Kieran Vincent 0.33% 303 111 21
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.92% 109 81 21
Kyungnam Kang 0.01% 10000 401 41
Leon D'Souza 0.00% 10000 1001 135
Louis Oosthuizen 3.61% 28 34 0.70% 3 2.5375 BetVictor: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
M.J. Maguire 0.03% 3333 251 3
Manav Shah 0.00% 10000 751 86
Martin Kaymer 0.11% 909 101 109
Mathew Pryke 0.00% 10000 1251 136
Matt Jones 0.35% 286 201 6
Matthew Cheung 0.01% 10000 401 86
Maverick Antcliff 0.05% 2000 301 63
Maximilian Rottluff 0.44% 227 101 109
Micah Lauren Shin 0.23% 435 151 14
Michael Regan Wong 0.00% 10000 2501 137
Miguel Carballo 0.00% 10000 601 86
Miguel Tabuena 2.34% 43 41 21
Minkyu Kim 0.03% 3333 101 127
Nick Voke 0.01% 10000 351 69
Nitithorn Thippong 0.00% 10000 751 100
Ollie Schniederjans 0.03% 3333 351 121
Patrick Reed 22.37% 4.5 10 13.70% 31 -13.7 Bet365: 9/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Casey 3.73% 27 21 59
Pavit Tangkamolprasert 0.04% 2500 251 9
Peter Uihlein 1.94% 52 51 2
Poom Saksansin 1.00% 100 67 14
Poosit Supupramai 0.00% 10000 601 127
Prom Meesawat 0.01% 10000 501 69
Ratchanon Chantananuwat 0.00% 10000 251 59
Rattanon Wannasrichan 0.31% 323 101 41
Richard Bland 1.83% 55 41 31
Ryan Peake 0.00% 10000 601 100
S.S.P. Chawrasia 0.00% 10000 1251 41
Sadom Kaewkanjana 5.61% 18 29 2.20% 47 -2.2 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Brazel 0.00% 10000 1001 109
Sam Horsfield 0.14% 714 126 52
Sampson Zheng 0.27% 370 69
Sarit Suwannarut 0.43% 233 61 52
Sarut Vongchaisit 0.02% 5000 351 36
Scott Hend 0.01% 10000 351 6
Scott Vincent 5.88% 17 23 1.60% 36 -1.6 William Hill: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sean Ramos 0.00% 10000 401 109
Settee Prakongvech 0.00% 10000 501 65
Seungsu Han 0.00% 10000 1001 69
Shih-Chang Chan 0.00% 10000 601 69
Shinichi Mizuno 0.00% 10000 1501 127
Shiv Kapur 0.00% 10000 601 69
Shun Yat Hak 0.00% 10000 1501 65
Sihwan Kim 0.00% 10000 1251 127
Soomin Lee 0.03% 3333 251 31
Suradit Yongcharoenchai 0.00% 10000 501 26
Suteepat Prateeptienchai 0.69% 145 71 31
Taichi Kho 0.90% 111 41 134
Talor Gooch 0.91% 110 21 47
Tanapat Pichaikool 0.00% 10000 601 119
Terrence Ng 0.00% 10000 2001 132
Thomas Pieters 0.58% 172 61 9
Tom McKibbin 5.96% 17 13 1
Tomoyo Ikemura 0.07% 1429 201 3
Travis Smyth 2.11% 47 51 0.20% 41 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wade Ormsby 0.04% 2500 101 109
Wang Ngai Shen 0.00% 10000 1001 69
Wei-Hsuan Wang 0.18% 556 71 36
Wei-Lun Chang 0.03% 3333 351 52
Wen-Chong Liang 0.00% 10000 1501 86
Wenyi Ding 0.92% 109 41 6
Wocheng Ye 0.00% 10000 751 86
Wooyoung Cho 0.00% 10000 351 124
Yosuke Asaji 0.04% 2500 351 52
Yubin Jang 0.12% 833 126 41
Yung-Hua Liu 0.00% 10000 401 124
Zhengkai Bai 0.00% 10000 351 119

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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