FINAL RESULT: 1-1; +2.50pts

Woods 1st
Perez mc

Not exactly easy, but Tiger shot the 3rd-lowest round of the day on Saturday and the lowest round of the day on Sunday to show the difference between himself and the young pretenders. Small profit, but there was certainly some value at 7/4.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt unless stated)

Tiger Woods to win 7/4 @ Victor Chandler, William Hill and Ladbrokes [2pts]
Difficult to find any enthusiasm for these early season events (not helped by Rose and Jimenez last week) and this event is the same: I struggled to find anyone to back this week. And I really should pass over this one and just make the one play this week, but I make Woods a 5/4 shot and so there is some value here. He has been playing on this course since six years of age, has won here in the last two years and is attempting to win his seventh straight PGA Tour event. And in the two years in which he has not begun his season at the Mercedes Championship (2003, 2006, ignoring his rookie year), he has made this his opening event and won both times. He really should win again.

Pat Perez to win 100/1 e.w. @ BetFred ['w/o Woods' market]
Opting for another player with local connections. Perez did say on his website that he might skip last week's event to concentrate on this one and so he is backed for the second week in a row and for the same reasons as last week, but that he is a graduate of Torrey Pines high school as well. A sixth-place finish two years ago was enough for a place finish with Tiger winning the event and given his early season promise at the Sony Open and his full recovery from the tendinitis that ruined his 2006 season, another top-10 finish looks a decent possibility and certainly a better possibility than BetFred's odds suggest.