The Masters

Finishing Positions (0.5pt Stakes)

Final Summary: 44.7 Pts Profit. The weather delays meant that pre round prices, although offered, were difficult to gauge with players all on different parts of the course. We were left therefore with the original eight. Unfortunately, none of the final 4 standing went out and shot really low to increase profits greatly but all in all it was a good week, increasing the pot by nearly 50% in one event.

R3 Summary: Not as strong on the remaining four plays as we were after last night but at the revised prices it seems best to let them run. If we close out all 4 we win about 8 further points but the prices don't appeal and if we hold out we could end up hopefully making a little more than the 8.

R2 Summary: All the buys have left the course so we are in a very strong position now. We lost Jacobson too but Furyk shot 67 today and joins Cink at the top end of the leaderboard.  We will look at the spreads tomorrow for the remainder of R3 and take it from there but we shouldn't really lose from here so may just let the original bets run.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Average day, with eight trades you can't expect all to go your way but at the moment Verplank and Cink are the best of the sells, with all of the buys being hopeful without being too confident. Lehman, Furyk and Jacobson though need to work some to stay in it. FP updated prices are possible tomorrow but so much harder to price up when not all players have played the same number of holes.)

Buy Sergio Garcia at 24 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 13 Pts
Garcia, I feel, is a player who is regularly priced under his true chance, be it on fixed odds or the spreads. IG this week have decided to pitch him in at 21-24 when players who possibly have a greater chance are higher. Although I normally place Course form a long way behind current, the Masters is a special case where some players just seem to always do well there and others fail continuously. Garcia has played 6 Masters with an improving record since his debut although his 4th last year was down to a 66 in R4 from way off the pace. His average M/U though is over 30 which in an event that usually only has 70 possible winners is not that great a return. His 05' form is patchy, with a last round 78 at Sawgrass producing a 32nd place to go along with 8th at Bay Hill, 64th in Miami, 42nd in the Buick and 10th in the 31 man field Mercedes. You have to make allowances for the lack of numbers here but we have the World's top 50 and that suggests Garcia should be just a bit higher than 24. Finally, he is placed in the bottom 5 of the PGA putting stats and when that list comprises over 180 players it shows where Sergio's problems currently lie.

Sell Scott Verplank at 34 with IG Sport M/U 22, Profit 6 Pts
Verplank has had a nightmare start to 05, which is strange for a player who was so reliable as an FP sell throughout the last couple of seasons. He has though shown a return to form with his 2nd place at the Players Champs and that alone suggests he shouldn't be priced at 34 here. Previously Verplank had WD at Bay Hill, missed the cut at Doral and went out in R1 at the Matchplay. His 04' record was one of consistency with 13 Top 20's and just possibly that Sawgrass 2nd is a sign of a return to past glories. His Masters record isn't great with an 8th in 03' his best return but when you weigh up all the facts 34 is just too high.

Sell Fredrik Jacobson at 39.5 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 5.25 Pts
We successfully opposed Freddie in the Players Champs at a high price but are happy to support him at a high price for this event. The difference in the courses is the reasoning where Freddie can bring his excellent short game to the fore and hopefully repeat his debut in 04' where he finished 17th. This year Freddie started ok with 2 Top 20's in January but since then he has struggled with 3 missed cuts and a 77th in Phoenix. Last year though he came in to Augusta with slightly better form but not much and performed well. We have 70-75 realistic challengers here and a 44 man cut so with a downside of just over 5 pts of our bank this does seem a fair bet and certainly the best sell of all the players quoted high.

Buy Lee Westwood at 31 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 9.5 Pts
Lee has an 05' record of 62/47/52/22 on this tour and has a course record of 24/44/6/cut/44. In those 20 Augusta rounds he has beaten 70 just once but possibly as a European or the expectancy of being tipped up in the national press has been given a quote of 28-31. We seem to regularly oppose Westwood but he is always priced just a bit too low so we will continue to do so until his price levels up to its true value.

Sell Tom Lehman at 31 with Sporting Index M/U 14.5, Profit 8.25 Pts
Of all the early quotes issued today this is the standout. Possibly as high as 31 due to a run of 2 missed Masters cuts in a row, the Lehman of 2005 is a far better player than the one who failed in 02/03. In 05' Lehman has a record chronologically of 9/2/45/cut/17/30/2, an average of mid 20's. Previously at Augusta his record is 18/12/cut/31/6/18. He came very close to winning at Sawgrass posting a score that only Funk beat in a field much stronger than this so should be less than 31.

Buy Jose Maria Olazabal at 25.6 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Profit 11.6 Pts
Everything stats-wise points to an Olazabal buy at 25.6 where he is considered 7th favourite. His Masters form though is something else and I was dithering over whether to place the bet or not. However his performance late on at Sugarloaf decided for me. He missed 2 small 5 ft putts to win and then completely lost his swing on the play off and if he recovers from that letdown to beat 25th next week he has done remarkably well.

Sell Jim Furyk at 27.6 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 28, Loss 0.2 Pts
A blanket sell at this price of Furyk in the last 8 years at Augusta would have produced an average M/U of 20 and there is nothing in Furyk's 2005 stats to suggest he is any worse than previous years. Last year he missed out through injury but this year has played 7 times, with 3 Top 10's. His most recent form is a missed cut at Sawgrass but previously produced two of his Top 10's at the Ford Champs and Honda Classic. Form figures of 29/28/4/14/14/6/cut/4 at Augusta just can't be ignored.

Sell Stewart Cink at 25.8 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 22, Profit 1.8 Pts
Probably the last trade pre-start on a player whose stats suggest he should contend here but up until now hasn't. In 7 events his 17th last year was his best result from 2 missed cuts and four further placings in the 20's. This year Cink has finished 5th in both Hawaiian events, 8th at Bay Hill and was a semi finalist in the Matchplay. He places 12th in the GIR stats, 8th in putting average, 18th in scoring average and 9th in all round ranking. With his ability Cink should contend here and it is strange that he hasn't had a Top 10 here yet, this may be the year.

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