Bay Hill Invitational

Finishing Positions (0.5pt Stakes)

Final Summary: Profit 1 Pt. Bit of a nothing week here both in opportunities and P&L with Roberts cutting out Petterssen losses and the others being very close to original quotes. Apologies for mentioning Rose and Johnson in earlier summaries, they were players I had got matched on late on Thursday morning but were not posted here as there was insufficient funds available on Spreadfair at the time.

R3 Summary: Another day finishes with an incomplete round and our position has worsened. Scott was +5 at one point but has went through the field to now be T10. Cabrera is struggling not to finish 50th along with Pettersson and only Lehman and Roberts give us any hope of this being any better than events in China.

R2 Summary: The weather has given us an advantage in that our 4 sells are out Saturday with the best conditions of the week so far and Scott is finished in the worst of Friday. They still need to perform of course but we can't dispute the advantage we have. There won't be any trades now until Sunday whilst the field catches up.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: If R1 doesn't get close to finishing I would assume there will be no R2 FP's from the firms so that will be us until Saturday. Of those who started, 3 are level and 20th, 2 are +2 and Pettersson is having a nightmare and an almost certain early finisher.)

Buy Adam Scott at 28 with Sporting Index M/U 32.5 Profit 2.25 Pts
I feel 28 is a bit low on Scott this week. Last time out, Scott shot 78 in R2 in the Ford at Doral to play himself out of it on the Friday night and although he was 1st and 5th previous to that and 3rd here last year he is trading at a price that is tight given the opposition against him this week. With Scott, a lot depends on his putting and a cold week here will see him struggle to beat 28. His average over time in the States is similar to his quote this week and although I don't think this is a standout price it does have all the advantages that buying has over selling going for it.

Sell Angel Cabrera at 34 with IG Sport M/U 41.5 Loss 3.75 Pts
We never got the chance last week to see how Cabrera would fare but at 34 this week in a 121 field, albeit fairly strong, I am happy to go in again with a known downside. 10th and 23rd in his last two tour starts keeps a run going where Angel has finished in the Top 25 five times in eight attempts since the start of the 04' season. 9th here in 02' he was 56th in 03 but did not take part last year. Cabrera is value right down to 32.

Sell Carl Pettersson at 39 with Sporting Index M/U 50 Loss 5.5 Pts
I didn't expect to advise Pettersson again this week after failing in an event that he has far better history on, (and for that matter another week this season of failing to beat 40th place), but 39 is just too big to ignore. 25th here two years ago, he missed the weekend last year. Worrying though is a 2005 record of 30/cut/40/43/cut/46, but long term form shows that he regularly will post enough high finishes to ensure his playing rights year on year and at 39 we can give him a chance that a return to form comes this week in an event where only 45 ish players will fail to make the weekend due to the reduced invited field.

Sell Tom Lehman at 34 with IG Sport M/U 32.5 Profit 0.75 Pts
Tom has a course record of 5 Top 25's out of 8 and in 2005 is probably producing form he hasn't achieved since the heady days of the late 90's. He still twitches when in contention, this years' Buick being the perfect example, that's why he is better played on FP's. A run over the turn of the year of 4/17/2/4/6/9/2 meant FP sellers of Lehman were coining it in. Since then, though, he has posted a 45th, a MC and was last 32 at the WGC. He comes back though after a fair break and is value at 34 in an event he has shown form in.

Sell Loren Roberts at 35 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 20.5 Profit 7.25 Pts
Another bet where it can be on price and price only. We have a 121 field, we have a downside of 7.5 pts on a player who has average Bay Hill form (6th and 4th littered with missed cuts and nowhere nears). His 2005 form though suggests 35 could be a slight error with a 20th and 4th mixed in with a 58th in the shortened Nissan and a 1st round defeat in the Matchplay. 

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