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Bovis Lend Lease European Senior Masters
Outright plays (2 units):
David Good to win 66/1 e.w. @
Stan James and
BetInternet
Good was a selection for the last European Senior Tour event covered and
was in contention for much of the event before falling away in the final
round. Woburn is a similar tree-lined parkland course and he holds just
as good a course history here as at Wentworth - 6th and 4th in the two
years of this event. He remains in good form with top-10 finishes in
three of his last five starts and looks very much overpriced for a
72-man event.
Horacio Carbonetti to win 66/1 e.w. @
Stan James and
BetInternet
Good's last Tour event may have been two years ago, but it is only a
matter of one month for the 2002 Q-School winner. He won the Bad Ragaz
PGA Seniors Open in Switzerland last month, had been 4th the week before
and finished 7th the following week in the Travis Perkins Senior Masters
having been much higher for most of the event. He is a Tour rookie so
has no course experience, but he has shown he can play on parkland
courses and is having a very impressive debut season.
Jerry Bruner to win 100/1 e.w. @
Stan James
There are some strange prices to be found in the minor events and this
is certainly one of them. In a 72-man field, Stan James think that
'Mouse' Bruner has a distinctly less-than-the-average-player chance of
winning. Yet he ranks 8th in the European Senior Tour Order of Merit,
won the Northumberland Seniors Classic in June on another similar course
(Slaley Hall), has finished in the top-10 in the last four Tour events
and 3rd and 8th on this course in the last two years. I just wish this
Tour would be priced up more often!
Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):
Delroy Cambridge to beat Priscillo Diniz -111 @
BetandWin
[6 units]
Was surprised to see outright odds for this event and am completely
amazed to see matchups as well. Just a pity I didn't spot them sooner!
Cambridge is defending champion and with Diniz having secured just one
top-15 finish all season, it is no surprise that Cambridge has a 16-5-0
h2h lead over the past year.
Malcolm Gregson to beat Ross Metherell -111 @
BetandWin
[6 units]
Metherell hasn't even had a top-30 finish this year! He did finish 4th
last year, but it was the only time in the past year that he has
finished ahead of Gregson. Can't see it happening again. I can't
remember seeing such a one-sided matchup ... my stats put this as a 91%
chance of winning for Gregson!
John Mashego to beat Bill Hardwick -111 @
BetandWin
[6 units]
A paltry 79% chance is the estimation for Mashego. Hardwick has yet to
finish in the top-20 this season and finished outside the top-50 both
times in this event. Mashego has finished ahead of Hardwick in all but
one common event in the past year, so can't see this one happening again
either.
Nick Job to beat Mike Miller -111 @
BetandWin
Miller did win the Nigel Mansell Classic two weeks ago, but that was his
first top-20 finish in ten starts and he then finished outside that mark
again last week. Job finished 2nd and has finished ahead of Miller in
eight of their last ten common events. Should be a win for Job, but not
as clear-cut as the other selections.
John Morgan to beat Russell Weir -111 @
BetandWin
[6 units]
Morgan has finished in the top-15 in each of the last two years here and
should at least go close to achieving that mark again. Weir has achieved
that mark just once this year (14 events) and that was in Barbados in
March. Again, the selection appears to be in much better form.
Final update:
Matchups: 5-0-0; +26.00 units
Cambridge/Diniz WON by 10
Gregson/Metherell WON by 13
Mashego/Hardwick WON by 8
Job/Miller WON by 9
Morgan/Weir WON by 10
Outrights: 1-2; +7.00 units
Good 35th
Carbonetti 25th
Bruner 4th
Very profitable event! Did have dreams of hitting the
jackpot when Bruner had a share of the lead with six holes to play, but
he finished over-par from that point and had to settle for a four-way
tie for 4th place. A much-reduced payout, but still a nice profit. Was
very surprised to see matchups for this event and can only to see them
again. As stated above, I just wish this Tour would be priced up more
often!
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