Tipster: Andy

Jacob's Creek Open

Round One Trades

Bet 1 - Sell Gareth Paddison over Chris Downes 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit -14.25pts)

Downes was 17th last week after a MC blip at the Heineken. Previously to that he was 5 from 5 in Top 20s in the Aus tour (including last year here). Paddison, meanwhile, was 40th at the stableford scoring event last week, and has only had one top 20 in his last 11 events. This included a run of 5 MC in a row which had this corresponding event from last year being one of them. Sporting Index have the wrong favourite.

Round Two Trades

Bet 2 - Buy Paul Sheehan over Vance Veazey at 1.5 ch. with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 16, Profit 10.88 pts.)

Going with the home boy over the PGA tour player here. Veazey shot 66 yesterday to be Tied 2nd. However, this seems to be well above his normal scoring as in the 2003 season on the US tour he missed 17 cuts, withdrew once and was DQ once from 26 starts. I appreciate that this isn't the PGA tour but Sheehan is an average Australian tour player who should possibly be a small favourite here.

Bet 3 - Buy David Smail over Vance Veazey at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U -19, Profit -18 pts.)

A higher price to pay but Smail is a far better player than Sheehan and needs to kick on today as he is a couple of shots short of the cut line. On this tour Smail has had 4 top 20's in the 8 events played since the start of 2003. Veazey beat both these players yesterday comfortably but at the prices should be worth taking on today.

Bet 4 - Sell Scott Gutschewski over Greg Chalmers at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U 22, Profit -16.5 pts)

Once again siding with the local player over the player he lost to yesterday. Chalmers, like Smail, has to perform today to make the weekend and his Aus tour record is good enough to suggest he will. He missed the cut last week but that was the first time on tour since 1997. Gutschewski is an above average Nationwide Tour player who has posted a few top 10's and a win in October. His foray into the big boys tour resulted in an MC in his first event of 04' at the AT & T. This seems a fair trade at the prices offered.

Bet 5 - Sell Gareth Paddison over Chris Downes at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit -9.75 pts)

Same reasoning as yesterday, although admittedly that was a very disappointing score from Downes. He shot par on the par 4's and 5's but was +6 on the par 3's including a 7 at the 180 yd, 3rd. Hopefully today he can perform better, the only concern being that he is some way from making the cut, but then as Paddison is +3 he may find himself in the same boat if he didn't start well. Still worthy at 0 to sell.

Round 3 Trades.

Sell Scott Gardiner over Jess Daley 18H MB at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 31, Profit -21.75 pts)

After a poor set of results yesterday where the players we opposed played poorly in general but still better than those we were supporting, we have one trade today in the 3rd round. At face value it would seem Gardiner should be clear favourite here after his 3rd last week in the ANZ and a 16th in the Heineken before. However he is up against an above average Nationwide Tour player who has posted 4 successive Top 25's on that tour since October. Arguably Gardiner's price is too high at 2, i would make Daley slight favourite. the tip in the balance is that he does have some tour form posting a 9th last year in Australia.

Summary - Weekly total -70 pts

Nothing can be said about this weeks results other than they were absolutely shocking. That is the way it can be sometimes with Spread betting on golf and i would expect there to be weeks where the exact opposite happens and every bet seems like a winner.