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Betfair Picks - European Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds:Betfair (external)

 

Odds: Betfair Summary

BMW PGA Championship
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Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Rory McIlroy 10.5  (19.5)
I think that there is very little to choose between the top-5 in the market, so it is easy to oppose McIlroy whose odds are much lower than the rest of that group. He is the top-ranked player in terms of World Rankings (8th), but there are plenty of players close behind and the calibre of this field is evidenced by 14 of the top-50 playing here. With such a strong field, he should be a standout player at just over single-figure odds, but his form has been erratic (winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational and contending in the Masters, but little else by way of contention in the last three months) and it is same on this course: a win in 2014 when at the top of his game (he hasn't been World #1 since September 2015), but four missed cuts in eight visits and no appearances in this event in the last two years. I'd look for more consistency for these odds against this field, so I'm happy to oppose him.



TIPS AND STAKES

Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange market, there are two things to note:

  1. Tips will normally be provided the evening before the market goes in-play;

  2. Tips will focus only on those players near the top of the market.

    There is plenty of value in backing players at very large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in providing tips for these odds.

Betfair tips for the European Tour will only be provided in-running - there will be none before the tournament starts.



Odds of 2.0 or higher

All BACK plays will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.

So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is 10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are staked to win 1.25pts.

Odds of less than 2.0

All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY plays will be to win 10pts

 

The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.