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Betfair Picks - European Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds:Betfair (external)

 

Odds: Betfair Summary

Portugal Masters
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The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.

For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.
 

Lucas Bjerregaard
Pre-tournament
LAY 16.5 (34) [10pts]
In great form and won here last year, but no-one has successfully defended the title here as it has been a great event for outsiders, so I'm keen to oppose him at these odds.
 
 
Sergio Garcia
Pre-tournament
LAY 21 (46) [10pts]
Handed a wild card for the Ryder Cup, Garcia is presumably here as he tries to find some form ahead of next week's event. There is added pressure on the Wild Cards to justify their selection next week, so winning on his course debut here would be a major surprise given his form and the distraction of next week.
 
 
Thorbjorn Olesen
Pre-tournament
LAY 23 (28) [5pts]
Would be the tournament favourite in my book but still too short given that he is making his debut in the Ryder Cup next week, so may easily be distracted, and he has yet to finish in the top-15 here in six attempts.
 
 
Charl Schwartzel
Pre-tournament
LAY 25 (44) [10pts]
In good form with an 8th place finish in the European Masters last time out and he does have three top-10 finishes in four visits here, but the last was in 2010 so I don't put a lot of weight on that. It has been ten years since he recorded a top-3 finish in Europe, so I think he is overpriced.
 
 
Shane Lowry
Pre-tournament
LAY 25 (30) [5pts]
Won this event in 2012, but that was the last time that he won in Europe and his finishes here read mc-33rd-29th since that win. He has played well on the PGA Tour over the last couple of months without seriously threatening to win and hasn't looked likely winning on this Tour for a long time.
 
 
Andy Sullivan
Pre-tournament
LAY 26 (29) [3pts]
Won here in 2015 by nine shots and missed out by a single shot to Harrington the following year so I would make him my 2nd-favourite this week, but his odds are still a little low. This is not an event for favourites and his form hasn't been particularly impressive recently.
 
 
Eddie Pepperell
Pre-tournament
LAY 34 (50) [8pts]
Finished 3rd last year and recovered well in the final round on Sunday to finish 6th, but his odds are too short on him to win this week.
 
 
Nacho Elvira
Pre-tournament
LAY 40 (60) [7pts]
Top-10 finishes in the last two years sees Elvira at a much lower price than previously seen - he was available to lay at 110 only two weeks ago. These odds are too low for a player ranked 190th in the World Rankings and coming off a missed cut last week.
 
 
Thomas Detry
Pre-tournament
No play. His odds look correct at this stage.
 
 
Ryan Fox
Pre-tournament
LAY 38 (55) [7pts]
Missed the cut last week and missed the cut on his debut last year. I don't see why his odds are this low.  


TIPS AND STAKES

Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange market, there are two things to note:

  1. Tips will normally be provided the evening before the market goes in-play;

  2. Tips will focus only on those players near the top of the market.

    There is plenty of value in backing players at very large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in providing tips for these odds.

Betfair tips for the European Tour will only be provided in-running - there will be none before the tournament starts.



Odds of 2.0 or higher

All BACK plays will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.

So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is 10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are staked to win 1.25pts.

Odds of less than 2.0

All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY plays will be to win 10pts

 

The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.