Moroccan Open

These may not be European shores, but at least we've reached a 'regular' section of the European Tour schedule. This is the 11th annual Moroccan Open, though because of the course rotation scheme for this tournament, there is little course form to use. The event was last staged at Robert Trent Jones designed Dar-es-Salem (Red Course) in 1996 when Peter Hedblom won the event; previous course winners have been David Gilford (1992) and Howard Clark (1987). However the King Hassan II Trophy has been held here annually, but with the event having only a select field, very few of this week's players have played this course since 1996.

The course has been described as "magnificent" with all the funds invested in it as would be expected for the annual King Hassan II Trophy. It is a par-73, but that does not mean that long-hitters dominate here. Hedblom, Gilford or Clark were quite short-hitters, but they were had particularly good greens in regulation stats and that has also been a feature of previous winners of the King Hassan II Trophy. The five par-fives will provide low scores, but elsewhere this is a good test of ball-striking ability.

The three outright picks this week are Robert Karlsson, Peter Lonard and David Lynn. Karlsson has an extremely impressive record in Morocco. In seven appearances in this event, he has finished in the top-six on all but one occasion! The only time he didn't was on this course in 1996 (73-81), but he did finish 2nd here in 1992. Despite that horror round in 1996, he is a cumulative 29-under-par in Morocco, while 2nd-best David Gilford is only 11-under-par. He comes into this event with 3 top-10 finishes in his four events this year, including a 2nd place last time out in Qatar and is deserved favorite to take this title.

Peter Lonard has not played since the Dubai/Qatar leg of the European Tour and he did not play particularly well those two weeks (57th, 27th), but he had come straight from consecutive weeks on the Australasian Tour which culminated in him winning the Tour Championship. It is small wonder he did perform as well in the Middle East, but now he comes this event refreshed and on the back of two very impressive victories over the winter. He has not played in Morocco before this week, but was so impressive in Australia that he must fancy his chances against these weak European Tour fields.

David Lynn has played in this event twice before, including a 13th place finish two years ago. But it has been in the last few months that he has shown his best form. He finished 7th in his last event, the Madeira Island Open, but that could have been a great deal better had it not been for a poor final round. The big-hitting Englishman should be able to take advantage of the many par-fives and has enough form at the moment to be able to cope with the rest of the course.

Outright plays:

Robert Karlsson to win 14/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Peter Lonard to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet247

David Lynn to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

72-hole plays:

John Bickerton to beat Nic Henning -111 @ Paddy Power 
Henning proved me wrong with his two top-10 finishes in South America, but this will be his seventh event in nine weeks spanning four different continents. Fatigue will surely be a factor, especially against an opponent who finished 2nd in the Madeira Island Open and did not fly out for the South American leg

Elliot Boult to beat Nic Henning -111 @ Ladbrokes 
Boult also chose not to play in South America, but he played particularly well in the Middle East in his last two events where he finished 9th and 3rd. With another top-10 in this event last year (on a different course), he looks set for another fine week

Trevor Immelman to beat Nic Henning +100 @ Sporting Odds 
Once again, the rested player is favored over Henning. Immelman had another great season on the Sunshine Tour and had a top-10 finish in the Middle East as well. A player with enormous potential, he should not be an underdog to his compatriot in any event

Jamie Spence to beat Santiago Luna -105 @ Easybets
Luna did finish 3rd on this course in 1996, but has had an otherwise undistinguished record in Morocco, very unlike Spence who is the defending champion. The fresher Spence who has only played in one event in the last two months will be better prepared for this event than the Spaniard who played in the Middle East, Madeira Island and South America and could finish no higher than 21st in any of the events

Mid-point update:

Just one match is decided at the cut and it is that old favorite gripe about Euro books: the tie that loses! But Spence and Luna missed the cut by one shot, but at Easybets that means the Spence play is a loss. Elsewhere, Henning came back from an opening 76 to make the cut and lead Boult by one and Immelman by two, but at least Bickerton has a two-shot lead over the South African. Very close in all four matches, but as they're playing in three-balls over the weekend that is sum of this week's plays

May make it a good event with the outrights though. Karlsson lies in 3rd place at the halfway point, while Lynn is three shots back in 21st and Lonard a further two shots back in 42nd.

Final update: 1-3-0 and -2.27 units

Frustrating week on the matchups as two of the 72-hole plays lose to a tie   Spence and Luna had both tied at 3-over-par and now Boult bogeys the easy par-five last hole to drop back to a tie with Henning at level-par   In the other matches, Immelman defeated Henning by two shots, but Bickerton lost to Henning by three.

Update on outright plays: 2-1 and +6.13 units

Poulter looked quite shaky on the last nine, but I don't think I've seen a hot putter all year! He had less than 100 putts all week. Still two good place wins with Lynn finishing 2nd and Lonard 3rd, while Karlsson's putter was as cold as Poulter's was hot and he finished 12th