Madeira Island Open

This year the event does not coincide with the TPC, but still the event cannot attract many of Europe's elite golfers. They are in the US preparing for the Masters, though at least there are a couple of Ryder Cup hopefuls entered this week. Otherwise this is a very easily forgotten event, which is a pity as at long last the European Tour bandwagon rolls into Europe.

The course has been cited as one reason for the stay-aways - it is situated on the side of a rather steep mountain. Even the official European Tour site admits this is a "steeply undulating course" and it is not just the fairways that are steep, but also the greens. It may be very picturesque, to be perched 2,300 feet above sea level with spectacular views over the Atlantic, but the course is an acquired taste. Good course form is a necessity for this week's selections.

In that department there are none better than John Bickerton whose finishes here in the last four years read 13th, 15th, 4th, 5th. Being very accurate off the tee and with good greens in regulation stats, it is clear that it is that type of player will play well on this testing course. While he has struggled to capture the form of two years ago, he has been steadily improving all year to a season-high 21st at the Dubai Desert Classic and to have spared his swing the buffeting of the Qatar winds last week may well be a blessing in disguise. Capable of winning in such a poor field.

The second outright pick is David Howell who finished 3rd on his last visit here two years ago and was 20th two years before that. Recent form has been sporadic and he was quite well-placed after 36 holes last week, but he has a good all-round game to cope with this course and is one of only a very small number of multiple winners in this field.

The third choice is David Lynn who had an excellent two weeks in the Middle East. He closed strongly over the weekend to finish 20th in Dubai and was set for a top-10 finish in Qatar until e was blown off-track on Sunday. He still finished 17th though, his best finish of the season, so he should not be too frustrated coming into this event. With regard to course form, he was only four shots back in finishing 7th last year so he seems to have a reasonable measure of this course.

Outright plays:

John Bickerton to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds

David Howell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

David Lynn to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

72-hole plays:

David Howell to beat Alistair Forsyth -111 @ Simon Bold 
Not going overboard on an event like this, but Forsyth is definitely one to oppose this week. He has missed the cut in the last four events and has not played on this difficult track before. To be able to oppose him with one of the outright picks is a bonus

Santiago Luna to beat Soren Kjeldsen -111 @ Paddy Power
Luna is a former winner of this title and has played well on this course. He showed no form in the Middle East, but should at least be fresh. For Kjeldsen, this is his seventh straight tournament across four different continents and fatigue as well as an indifferent course record should count against him

Mid-point update:

Neither of the 72-hole plays were decided at the cut, though Forsyth did make up two shots in the last three holes to squeeze home on the mark. Howell does take a one-shot lead into the weekend, but it would have been nice to have had the win already secure! In the other match, Luna trails Kjeldsen by two.

In the outrights, Bickerton leads the selections, lying in 2nd place after 36 holes and two shots behind the leader. Lynn lies a further five shots back in 19th, so a place finish is still quite possible, though not for Howell who is in 55th position.

Over 80 people qualified for the weekend, so they're playing in 3-balls. With DAS not offering 18-hole matchups this week, it looks like there will be no plays this weekend.

Final update: 1-1 and -0.11 units for the week

Changing fortunes on the two matchups over the weekend. Howell was very poor and finished seven shots behind Forsyth so we are left to rue the eagle two he had on his final hole on Friday to make the cut on the mark   In the other, Luna finished seven shots ahead of Kjeldsen to mean a break-even week on the matchups.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.63 units

Bickerton held the lead on a couple of occasions on the final day, but a birdie surge by Des Smyth handed the title to the Irishman. Bickerton finished 2nd, two shots behind. Not such a good return from Lynn who also started the day in 2nd place, but never kept up with the leaders and fell out one-shot out of a place finish in 7th position. Howell had a bad tournament and finished 65th. After one week at Europe's least-favored event, it's on to South America for the next two weeks