Italian Open

Penultimate event of the year on the European Tour and this is largely an event for those struggling to keep their Tour card for next year. There are some 'name' players on view, but they have largely had light schedules of late and will look to fine-tune their game ready for the Volvo Masters next week. Ian Poulter was a 125/1 winner last year, so who knows what price the winner will be this week.

The event is played at the Is Molas course in Sardinia for the second year, though it was also the home for the Is Molas Challenge on the Challenge Tour from 1996 to 1999 and given the nature of this week's field, many of them have more than one year's experience of this course. It is short at just over 7,000 yards and will play even shorter. There has been no rain on Is Molas for 8 months! The fairways are dry and wide and with no irrigation system, the rough is not particularly tough. The course's main defence will be wind which is always a factor.

The three selections are Steve Webster, Mathias Gronberg and Markus Brier. If Webster plays, and he has every reason to withdraw after his playoff defeat and the impending Volvo Masters, he looks to be one of the class players in this week's field. He shunned his previous impish behaviour last week and remained focused; he was unlucky not to beat Goosen as he did play the much better golf from tee to green over the weekend. With the course set up for his long-hitting and in a very confident frame of mind, he looks over-priced at 22/1 in this field.

Gronberg didn't play last week and after the Monday finish in the Dunhill Links Championship, he will be glad of the break. He did finish 9th in that event and with his previous top-10 coming at Loch Lomond in the Scottish Open, he has shown ample proof that he is comfortable playing in wind. No course history, but he is playing well enough to take this title.

The final selection, Markus Brier, has plenty of course history. He played in all four Is Molas Challenges and in last year's Italian Open, with the highlight being a runners-up spot to Bradley Dredge in 1999. He has secured his Tour card with some fine performances in the past two months, culminating in a top-5 position last week. He is now in a position where he can qualify for the Volvo Masters - he ranks 70th in the Order of Merit and the top-55 after the Italian Open qualify - and so should be expected be trying as hard as the Tour card strugglers but without the pressure.

Outright plays:

Steve Webster to win 22/1 e.w. @ Bet365

Mathias Gronberg to win 33/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports [6 places, 1/5 odds]

Markus Brier to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365

Mathias Gronberg has withdrawn

72-hole plays:

Fredrik Andersson to beat Peter Hanson -110 @ Surrey
Apart from a 15th place in a Challenge Tour event, Hanson's best finish since the Scottish PGA Championship has been 49th. Complete loss of form after a career stretch in July/August. Very easy to side with Andersson who has finished no worse than 38th in his last five events

Roger Winchester to beat Peter Hanson -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Even easier to side with Winchester who, barring the weather-affected Dunhill Links Championship, has had a stellar month and in this form could yet secure that top-117 position on the Order of Merit with a decent show this week - he needs to finish in the top-4

Paul Eales to beat Marcello Santi -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Surprising matchup. Santi has made just five cuts from 18 starts on the European Tour this season with a best finish of 25th. He may have finished 4th in the Is Molas Challenge in 1998, but is in a totally different class to Eales who ranks 114 places above him in the Order of Merit and finished 12th in the Italian Open on this course last year

Jonathan Lomas to beat Dennis Edlund -111 @ Simon Bold
Case of boom or bust from Edlund at the moment. Two top-15 finishes and five missed cuts in his last seven events, but with all but one of these being Challenge Tour events, he is not playing to the standard required for the main Tour. Lomas is certainly doing so with just one missed cut in seven and should win this matchup by the weekend

David Park to Massimo Florioli -111 @ Bet365
Both are struggling to retain their cards for next year, but at least Park has an outside chance of making the grade. Since the Tour reached the European mainland, Florioli has made the cut just twice from fourteen starts and has a best of 71st position. Park has not had a good season, but at least he has made the cut more times than not in this period and that is too good for Florioli

Lucas Parsons to beat Simon Hurd -111 @ Simon Bold
It will be a tense week for Parsons as he sits in 113th place on the Order of Merit, just 8,000 euros ahead of Graeme Storm in 118th position. But there is still a huge gulf in class between these two players. Hurd ranks only 70th on the Challenge Tour Order of Merit and won't be able to compete with Parsons who has at least made the cut in each of the last four week to duck under that top-117 barrier

Mid-point update:

Just one play is decided at the cut and it is a winner: Park beat Florioli by four shots. The other plays stand 2-1-2 with all the matches very close: Andersson/Hanson all square; Winchester/Hanson 4 down; Eales/Santi all square; Lomas/Edlund 1 up; Parsons/Hurd 3 up. Could be a fine week with the outright looking good after 36 holes. Webster is 5th and Brier 9th.

Final update: 4-2-0 and -0.44 units

Turned out to not be a fine week as the two losses were the two double plays   The final scores: Andersson/Hanson 6 up; Winchester/Hanson 3 down; Eales/Santi 7 down; Lomas/Edlund 9 up; Parsons/Hurd 5 up. Just one week left to ensure that this year's European Tour matchups finish in profit

Update on outright plays: 0-2 and -2.00 units

Close but not to be this week. Webster finished 7th and one shot out of a place finish, while Brier finishes 9th and a shot further back. Frustrating.