German Masters

A small, high quality field gathers this week at Gut Larchenhof. Almost all of Europe's top players are in town and so too is John Daly, who won on his last trip to Germany only a month ago. He makes his debut in this event, but Bernhard Langer, who co-hosts this event, has been unsuccessful in luring other internationals to this event, even Vijay Singh who had played at this venue in every year. A legacy of September 11th and the postponement of the Ryder Cup, no doubt.

This is the 4th time that this Jack Nicklaus-designed course has been used for this event, but after it was criticized for being too easy in 1998, some three hundred yards were added in length and the course has played very differently since. This can be seen from the course compatibility tables, which show that players with good greens in regulation stats have dominated this event since. With well-protected greens, only the best iron-players score well on this course. There may be a slight change this year as there has been a lot of rain in the last few weeks and there is very little run on the fairways. With the course measuring 7,289 yards, power off the tee may be an asset this week.

The three winners on this course have been Monty, Garcia and Campbell and there this week's winner is certain to be of the same pedigree. The three selections for this task are Padraig Harrington, Darren Clarke and John Daly. Harrington has a great record in this event, having finished 8th, 2nd and 3rd on this course in the last three years and in the last ten years of this event, he has the lowest scoring average, lower than Langer who has won this title three times and finished 2nd on a further three occasions in the last twelve years. He is well-rested having not played since finishing 2nd to Daly in the BMW International and has been in great form all season. If there is one worry at the projected odds, it is that he fails to win often enough. He has yet to win this season, but has finished 2nd on six occasions!

Clarke can also boast an excellent record in Germany and good overall form. His last two outings were in the NEC Invitational in Akron and the Suntory Open in Japan, both times he finished in the top-3. He is a former winner of this event (1996), albeit on a different course, and has the ideal game for this course, particularly if it is wet. In less than ideal conditions, these two Irishmen usually come to the fore.

The weather conditions will certainly benefit Daly and he can draw renewed confidence from his victory in Munich. He followed that with 4th place in the Canadian Open and would secured another high finish in the Pennsylvania Classic had the ghosts of ages past not reappeared in his 3rd round 82. Barring such lapses, he should again show that he can compete with the best in the game.

Outright plays:

Padraig Harrington to win 14/1 e.w. @ BetInternet or NetBetSports

Darren Clarke to win 14/1 e.w. available generally

John Daly to win 33/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports

72-hole plays:

John Daly to beat Michael Campbell -105 @ Intertops
Campbell may be the defending champion, but it was by default - the last round was cancelled due to rain - and he has played infrequently and poorly this summer. In nine starts since May, he has finished in the top-20 just once (13th, Scandinavian Masters). In that form, he cannot compete with Daly

Paul Casey to beat Justin Rose -110 @ Carib
Casey secured his maiden Tour win in the Scottish PGA Championship in August and followed that with a top-10 finish in the BMW International in Germany. He even carried his form over to the Texas Open with a creditable 45th place finish last week and provided he is not too tired from that journey is the brighter prospect for another top-10 finish

Jean van de Velde to beat Mathias Gronberg -110 @ Camelot
Van de Velde disappointed two weeks when a selection in the Trophee Lancome, but he is still in much the better form that the Swede who has missed five of his last seven cuts and finished no better than 34th in the other two. Add in the 2½ shot difference in their scoring average on this course and even a disappointing van de Velde should win this matchup

Adding:

Bernhard Langer to beat Michael Campbell -111 @ Ladbrokes
Langer's game has been renewed this year, he fully deserved his Ryder Cup place. In an event that he has dominated, he is another who will achieve the top-20 finish needed to win this match. Victor Chandler have Langer -163 to win this match which looks more realistic to me

Jean van de Velde to beat Mathias Gronberg -110 @ Camelot
Thought this line would have moved by now. Adding another unit, it is definitely the strongest play this week

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Greg Owen -120 @ Camelot
Jimenez's form has been patchy this summer and he did not play in August. However, with a three-week break and returning to a course on which he has played particularly well in the last two years, I expect a much improved performance this week. He should beat Owen who would be a fine prospect if only his putting was as good as the rest of his game

Mid-point update:

None of the plays are decided at the cut and nothing more than a break-even week so far. Daly leads Campbell by two and Langer leads Campbell by nine, but Casey trails Rose by three and Jimenez trails Owen by four. In the top play, van de Velde and Gronberg are tied after 36 holes. All three outright selections have a shot at a place finish at the moment. Clarke is 7th, Harrington 17th and Daly 28th.

Final update: 3-1-1 and +1.80 units

Small profit on the weeks plays with the sole loss on Jimenez who finished seven shots behind Owen. In the rest, Daly beat Campbell by eight, Langer beat Campbell by nine, Casey beat Rose by three and van de Velde and Gronberg tied.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +1.63 units

Daly produced a great final round charge to secure 2nd place. Not such convincing performances from Clarke and Harrington though, who finished 32nd and 19th respectively.