BMW International Open

The final pieces in the Ryder Cup jigsaw will be fitted this week. Over a dozen players still have a mathematical chance of securing one of the automatic 10 spots on the team and it will make for a tense week. Etched in the minds of many of this week's hopefuls will be Eamonn Darcy's 1985 debacle. Confident of qualifying for the team, he went fishing rather than play in the final event and missed out by £38. Most of the hopefuls have instead played week-in, week-out for too long including a trip to Atlanta and Akron; they should be ones to oppose. 

With the tension of trying to qualify an impediment to good golf, this event has thrown up some very unlikely winners. When the course was the venue once again for this event in 1997, Robert Karlsson won as a 80/1 shot; the following year Russell Claydon won as a 125/1 shot. Sanity has been resumed in the last two years with Monty and Bjorn winning, but pressure can produce some strange results. Another reason for the unlikely winners may be the course itself. It is very flat and treeless and measuring under 7000 yards for a par-72, offers little to challenge the stroke-makers. There is very little rough on this course. Given the widely-acclaimed greens, this event has invariably become a putting contest.

With this in mind, the three selections this week are Sergio Garcia, Bernhard Langer and Jose Maria Olazabal. Garcia would not be here were it not for the Ryder Cup. He knows he will get a wild card selection, but it is to provide some room for manoeuvre for his captain that he tees it up this week. He is not playing under pressure and on a course without rough and that needs a good short game, he should play well. He is also rested after not playing at the NEC Invitational last week and deserves the short price he attracts.

Bernhard Langer won his first tournament in four years last month at the TNT Dutch Open - his last event in Europe - and is tipped to go close to making a quick return to the winner's circle. He has won ten times in his home country and while he has never won in this event, he does have a great record on this course. He has played at Munchen Nord-Eichenried in each of the last seven stagings there and finished in the top-4 on four occasions and no worse than 15th in the other three. While there is mathematical chance he can drop out of the top-10 in the Ryder Cup standings, it is no more than that and playing without pressure, he should secure at the very least, a top-5 position.

The final selection, Jose Maria Olazabal, could make the team with a very high finish this week, but if he did, he would again be the most experienced member of the team. He should not suffer too much from the pressure this week and with few expected him to be a captain's pick, he should be able to play quite freely. He is not in great form at the moment, though he has shown glimpses of his former game over the past few months, but he is one to rise to the challenge. And this course is made for such an eventuality. No rough and a heavy emphasis on putting, Olly could not want a better setup. With William Hill offering 20/1 for him, the price at Surrey is worth a speculative punt.

Outright plays:

Sergio Garcia to win 10/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Bernhard Langer to win 14/1 e.w. available generally 

Jose Maria Olazabal to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey

72-hole plays:

Bernhard Langer to beat Thomas Bjorn -118 @ Sportingbet
Bjorn's form in the last two weeks is a concern: 63rd in the PGA Championship and 31st of 37 players at the NEC Invitational is not good. With the Ryder Cup only a few weeks away, he would probably have skipped this event were he not the defending champion. The never-ageing Langer should be a more likely contender for the title this week

Alex Cejka to beat Dean Robertson -110 @ William Hill
Cejka has played some good golf in the past month only to spoil his week with one bad round. He finally overcame that last week to finish 2nd and the momentum should carry him on to another good week. Robertson's finishes have worsened in the past two months as the pressure of Ryder Cup qualification has increased. Can't see a reversal of form this week

Pierre Fulke to beat Justin Rose +100 @ Sports.com
Rose held the lead at the Scottish PGA Championship on the last day, but he gave it up and with a succession of bogeys fell back to 11th and out of the Ryder Cup race. Had he won or even remained in the top-3, he would have had a decent shot at qualification this week. The manner in which he crumbled should have an effect on him this week - it has been a very long qualification process - as he is now only playing for pride. Even the inconsistent Fulke can beat him this week

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez +100 @ Surrey
Jimenez has a realistic chance of making the Ryder Cup team this week, he lies 12th in the table and he has a great record in events in Germany. However, he is only in this position because of back-to-back 3rd place finishes in the British and Dutch Opens. Apart from those two weeks, he has been struggling with his game for some time. In the last two weeks he has missed the cut at the PGA Championship and finished 36th of 37 players last week in the NEC Invitational. His fine record in Germany will end this week under the pressure of the Ryder Cup and Olly can take this at decent odds

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Paul Lawrie -110 @ Sports.com
Lawrie can still qualify for the Ryder Cup if he wins this week, but this is his 9th event in 10 weeks! Without a good start, he could very easily miss the cut and get a much deserved rest. Fatigue is not a concern for Olly and he should play well on this track

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Paul McGinley -111 @ Sporting Odds
Like Lawrie, this is McGinley's 9th event in 10 weeks. Only a very unlikely combination of events can deny him a place in the team and playing under the pressure of leaderboard-watching, he will not play particularly well. In much need of a rest before the Belfry, he will be very glad when this event is over and again, the pressure-free Spaniard should prevail

Mid-point update:

Just one play is decided at the cut and that is a win. Jimenez missed the cut and the Ryder Cup berth and lost to Olazabal by nine shots. The standings in the rest: Langer/Bjorn 4 down; Cejka/Robertson 2 down; Fulke/Rose 4 down; Olazabal/Lawrie 8 up; Olazabal/McGinley 4 up. Olazabal's albatross has been the highlight of the day and it lifted him to 3rd place after 36 holes. With Garcia 8th and Langer 21st, there should be a good chance of a return on the outright plays.

Final update: 2-3-1 and -1.28 units

Disappointing return on the matchups with just Fulke not playing very well. He lost to Rose by 12 shots. In the rest, Langer made up eight shots on the last day to tie with Bjorn and secure only a very small loss on the dead heat rule, Cejka couldn't catch Robertson and finished five behind, while Olazabal had a poor weekend to wreck a promising event. He did beat Lawrie by five shots, but lost to McGinley by one shot.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Close but not good enough. Olly's poor weekend meant he fell from 3rd to 13th place, while Garcia finished one shot out of a place finish in 7th and Langer was three shots further back in 16th.