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Buy John Cook over Craig Stadler 18H R1 MB at 4 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 16, Profit 3 Pts Since Cook joined this tour in late 07' he has been in 3 events with Stadler and has beaten him in all 3, by a total of 14 strokes, winning 7 of the 9 rounds in the process for an average M/U of 10. We supported Stadler last week when he was shooting 80 at Pebble and it was a poor week's work there considering the success he had had on the course before. I'm not suggesting he should have contended on that tour, but he shouldn't have shot an 80 in celebrity friendly greens and rough. Sell Allen Doyle over Keith Fergus 18H R1 MB at -1.5 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3.62 Pts This is a no brainer, in 22 starts over the last 12 months, Fergus has won 18 matches, including 11 of the last 12. He has also won 46 of the 71 rounds that these events total which has contributed to an average stroke per round a full 1.5 lower than Doyle. Immediate current form sees Fergus with two Top 10's in a row compared to Doyle's 2/18/11 start to the year. Of course, there has to be a reason for the price, and the reason is that Doyle was 2nd last year but there are too many other negatives against him here to suggest that he is the equal of Fergus when it comes to setting a price on their match up. Sell Scott Hoch over R.W. Eaks 18H R1 MB at 3 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 31, Loss 7 Pts Hoch won last week with an old familiar caddie but that caddie was on loan from Masters Champion, Zach Johnson, and I would assume he is back with him this week for the LA event. If so, it may see a return to the type of scores Hoch has normally been putting up on this tour as last week was certainly a blip. 36th and 44th in his two opening events to 08' Hoch didn't fare a great deal better in 07' where his average FP was 24. Compare that to Eaks who averaged a couple of points lower but importantly is getting 3pts of a start against a player arguably inferior on this tour. Once again, a price is such for a reason and an 11th for Hoch to Eaks's 70th last year is that reason but course form has been over factored into both the final two quotes here and we should oppose Hoch at 3. Bets 3, Wins 2, Losses 1, P&L -0.38 Pts |
