13-4; -1.38pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK 1pt

Brendan Steele 27  62nd
Adam Hadwin 28  72nd
Steele ticks the standard boxes of course and current form for this event - he won this event in 2011 and has finishes of 4th, 8th and 13th since that win, and he has already won the Safeway Open and secured five other top-25 finishes this season and sits 10th in the FedEx Cup standings.
Having finished 2nd in the CareerBuilder Challenge,Hadwin won the Valspar Championship in March, followed that up with 6th place in the Arnold Palmer Invitational to lie 5th in the FedEx Cup standings, so he is clearly a player in very good form and very different to the player that missed the cut here two years ago

LAY 20pts liability

Patrick Reed 44  mc
Martin Laird 75  18th
Bud Cauley 100  10th
Ian Poulter 100  mc
Nick Watney 130  mc
Reef finished 2nd last year, but his form is so bad that he now ranks 92nd in the FedEx Cup and 148th in scoring average on the PGA Tour so a repeat looks unlikely
Laird won this title in 2013, but he is also suffering from poor form with finishes of mc-49th-64th in his last three starts so I would price him at triple-digits
Cauley showed some form last week when leading after rd1, thouogh he fell back to finish 9th, but there has been no other sign of form since January, so he is another whose odds I would suggest are a little lower than should be expected
Poulter is another who played well last week (finishing 11th) after showing few signs of form since the start of the year; with just one course appearance (finishing 37th in 2013), he certainly shouldn't be as short as these odds
Watney missed the cut in his only previous appearance here and, playing this year on a Major Medical Extension, he showed briefly in February-March that he could be competitive again on thie Tour, but he returned to missing cuts again at the Houston Open

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK 1pt

John Huh 34  22nd
Huh is only two shots off the pace and has played well so far this week, ranking 4th in driving accuracy, 9th in greens in regulation and 7th in scrambling so he has the ball control to be able ot maintain his form over the weekend where many of those around the top of the leaderboard have mixed records when in contention. That was not an issue for Huh when finishing 2nd here in 2012.

LAY 20pts liability

Ryan Palmer 110  6th
Charley Hoffman 120  40th
Matt Jones 330  13th
While the top of the leaderboard may have a very unfamilar look and so some movement is to be expected over the weekend, it is a very long way down to Palmer in 36th place so I would certainly price him at higher odds than this to get himself into contention
Hoffman is even further back in 47th place, so even though he is the defending champion, he has rather too many players to pass over the weekend to warrant such odds
Jones is more realistically priced for a player in 36th place, but he is a player without a top-20 finish on this course or in 2017 so there is little expectation that he will improve significantly over the weekend

Pre-rd4 plays

Kevin Tway 40  3rd
Chappell's record when leading after 54 holes is 0-for-3 on the PGA Tour and 0-for-2 on the Web.com Tour so there is good reason to expect one of the chasers to win this event. Tway may be still seeking his first win on this Tour (he has won the Web.com Tour), but these odds appear rather large for a player two shots off the lead in 4th place so there is value here, particularly as his overall play has been very good so far this week: 5th in greens in regulation; 8th in strokes gained - tee to green.

LAY 20pts liability

Jimmy Walker 75  13th
Ryan Moore 90  18th
Jim Herman 110  18th
Ollie Schniederjans 170  18th
Sung-Hoon Kang 180  6th
Walker won this event two years ago and is ranked 25th in the World Ranking which translates to much lower odds for a player in 19th place with one round to play; given that he hasn't secured a top-10 finish since the first week of January, he is a player to oppose from this position
Moore finishes 9th last week, his first top-10 finish since hte first week of January, but like Walker he is also back in 19th place and has shown little indication this week that he shoot the really low score today to give himself a chance of getting into contention
Herman is a shot closer in 12th place, but he is already performing well above expectations for a player with finishes of 59th-mc-mdf-mc on this course
A shot further back from Walker and Moore in 27th place is Schniederjans; he did finish 3rd last week, but his driving and ball-striking stats have been poor this week and there has been no indication that he could be a challenger from this position
Kang is another who has shown good form recently, but his previous finishes on this course have been poor - mc-mc-42nd - and his driving and ball-striking stats have also been poor so his current 19th place position is an overachivement relative to his play so far this week.