6-1; +0.89pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK 1pt

Daniel Berger 32  14th
Berger has been prepraring well for his first start in this event - he posted himself on Instagram teeing it up with Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas - and he has the game to play well here - he hits the ball a long way and makes lots of birdies, so there should be value in these odds.

LAY 20pts liability

Greg Chalmers 500  28th
With no Tour golf for a month, there will only be limited pre-tournament plays at this stage of the year, but Chalmers look an obvious lay. He is the lowest-ranked player in the field in terms of World Rankings and he is the only one not to have reached the Playoffs last season, so there is a very big gulf in class between Chalmers in his current form and the top of the market.

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Daniel Berger 32  14th
Tony Finau 65  9th
Fabian Gomez 120  20th
Russell Knox 200  17th
Getting out of the Berger play - he is only four shots back on a very crowded leaderboard, but his ball-striking has been poor over the first two rounds and he doesn't appear to be playing well enough to emerage out of the pack
Finau is alongside Berger and is one of 14 players within five shots of the lead; he warrants the higher odds as he showed little form at the end of last year and has struggled on the very large greens so far this week
Gomez is another in 7th place and while he did finish 6th here last year, that was borne of very good ball-striking stats - he has shown little of this so far this week, ranking 27th (of 32) in strokes gained - off the tee and 20th in strokes gained - tee-to-green
Knox is further back in 15th place and six shots off the lead and his ball-striking stats this week has been as bad as those of Gomez so he looks an easy to oppose with so many players to pass over the weekend

Pre-rd4 play:

LAY 20pts liability

Dustin Johnson 75  6th
Seven shots off the pace and in 8th place, Johnson will have to record an extremely low round today to have any chance of winning this event. Given that he ranks 29th (of 32) in strokes gained - approaches, giving up 2.85 shot to the field in his approach play, it looks extremely unlikely that he will give himself enough birdies chances to gain any momentum today.