Summary: Bets 7, Wins 4, Losses 3. Loss 8.77 Pts.

Round Two Trades

Sell David Howell over Mark O’ Meara 18H MB at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 19, Loss 3.3 Pts

Woods/Petrovic today is 1pt better to sell even although Woods leads the event and is 7 strokes clear of Petrovic after R1. This price seems fair given the scores both players achieved yesterday. Therefore it is a little surprising to see the same quote in day 2 for Howell/O’Meara at 8 even although both players shot 69 yesterday. The reasons of yesterday still apply 24 hours later and with O’Meara playing as well as Howell did yesterday, he should theoretically be even better value.

Tournament Trades

Buy David Toms FP at 25.8 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 2.5, Loss 13.98 Pts
Since the turn of the century, Toms has played in Florida 23 times, from which he has only placed three times, every time in 5^th place. Admittedly twice was here, but his other results here are poor with an average FP in the same time of slightly higher than his quote this week. This however is a far better quality field than this event has normally attracted so at the price Toms is value. 

Buy Tim Clark FP at 33.6 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 38, Profit 2.51 Pts
Florida form sees Clark very hit and miss with 10 maximum make-ups for FP coupled with 8 Top 25's. So in 18 events Clark hasn't finished between 26th and 50th. At Doral he has finishes of 78th and 16th to mirror the above stats. Currently, Clark is in good form with three Top 20's in 06 from 4 strokeplay events but in this quality field 33.6 is worth a punt.

Round One Trades  

Sell Tiger Woods over Tim Petrovic 18H MB at 14 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 31, Loss 5.1 Pts
In 2005, Petrovic managed to beat Woods in h2h's 4 times out of 12 so given that and the fact we have nearly a 2 stroke start, I think there is a bit of value in playing this match-up.

Sell Craig Parry over Stephen Ames 18H MB at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -19, Profit 6.3 Pts
Ames leads 5-3 in h2h's since the start of last season and it suggests that this price is heavily based on Parry's win here 2 years ago and a general better course record. However, a rather sparse start to the year appearing in only 2 events in Australia means he may be a bit ring rusty this week so we will oppose him even although Ames has started off very slowly this year.

Sell David Howell over Mark O’ Meara 18H MB at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Profit 2.4 Pts
Although Howell has improved beyond all recognition in the last 6 months this is a rather large quote against a player who still occasionally appears, maybe not at the business end but certainly on early leaderboards. Head to heads are sparse, only 4 since Jan 05' with a 2-2 tie and a 2-1-1 lead for O'Meara in R1 scoring. However, playing in Florida with the different grass type can take a bit of getting used to and in two trips so far Howell has done nothing special with a 36th at Bay Hill and a missed cut at Sawgrass.

Buy Vijay Singh over Padraig Harrington 18H MB at 5 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Profit 2.4 Pts
Singh leads 8-3 in match-ups over the last year and has so far failed to lose any of their 11 first round matches, averaging a M/U of 14.5. Stanley puts a good case for Singh elsewhere and those reasons and the stats against Harrington in particular suggests that 5 is low, with 7 or 8 being closer to the realistic midpoint.