Shaker decided to step down from the position of Betfair Tipster at the end of 2004. He put in a lot of work to establish the Betfair section at Tour-Tips and he will be missed. However, Chris has agreed to take on the mantle for 2005 and I'm sure you'll give him a warm welcome. Stanley

Mercedes Championships

FINAL RESULT
Johnson T23
Ames T19
Taylor T8
Daly T17
Scott T5
Cink T5
Goosen T13

Total staked = 11.25pts
returns = 0pts

Very frustrating to see Scott miss out on the places by one stroke after such a spirited late charge. Just like in 2004, it was a poor second round that cost him. Taylor threatened throughout but ultimately finished short of the places too. Let's hope for better luck next week!



Apologies if I'm jumping the gun a bit with some early Sunday morning plays (indeed, it's actually only Saturday evening where I am writing this from..) but I feel that there is a distinct possibility some of these prices may not last till Monday:

Back Zach Johnson 1pt e/w @ 66/1 at William Hill
Simply too big a price - I make him a 40/1 shot at most against this field. There is currently a fair amount to lay at 60 on betfair which backs up this argument.

Back Stephen Ames 2pts place only (1,2,3,4) @ 12/1 at Golfinggods
Like Johnson, a player who had a 'breakthrough' season in 2004 and as such should not be short on confidence entering the new season. Despite finally getting a tour win under his belt I am still not convinced about his ability to close out a tournament - particularly considering the company here - hence the place only bet. 50/1 e/w still looks an excellent value bet, so to be able to get the place part only at just a fraction less than the e/w terms is too good to ignore.

Back Vaughn Taylor 0.5pts place only (1,2,3,4) @ 40/1 at Golfinggods
Another player making his first appearance in this tournament, so like the others there is no course form to go on - but remember that absense of evidence does not equal evidence of absense. Once again a place only bet partially because it could well be asking too much for the relatively inexperienced Taylor to actually win in this field and also because it actually offers better value on the place terms than an e/w bet at 150/1.

Back John Daly 0.5pts @90 at Betfair AND 1pt place only (1,2,3,4) @ 20/1 Golfinggods
Daly's sometimes errant driving shouldn't get him in too much trouble on this wide open course. The split bet is an attempt to squeeze out a little more value than the straight e/w bet - note that this is available at 80/1 at golfinggods and I would advise taking this should it not be possible to get matched at 90 on betfair.

You may note that these tips put an emphasis on place betting, which is in part due to the reduced field this week - which although meaning that only 4 places are being offered still offers some excellent value on certain players.

Update:

Back Adam Scott 2pts e/w @ 28/1 at Victor Chandler
The last pre-tournament outright play of the week (unless any crazy prices appear on other players of course) and actually I believe the best value. The only reason I didn't put him up before was because I was hoping somewhere would go bigger than 25/1 so I'm very pleased to see VC have obliged. I believe Scott is probably just a major win away from being a true golfing superstar and household name. While I commented that Stephen Ames is a player who can be dodgy in contention, the same can certainly not be said of Scott. Over his career his record at converting leading positions in to wins is almost flawless. I don't think too much can be read in to his recent uninspiring showings in Australia during the off-season. For some reason he has never excelled in his homeland and given that he received press critiscm for missing one of the Aussie events it will probably be something of a relief to him to be back in the US. His 7th place in his first apprearance in this event last year certainly doesn't count against him, and perhaps works in our favour as it means he just escapes the 'course form' radar and subsequent heafty price chopping.

Finally, I should just mention a bit about my intended strategy for my tips over the coming season. I will be looking to make some in-running plays - often these will be on betfair - but they will only ever be between-round plays. I may also look to employ 'pre-set' lays which shaker used last season - where hedging lays are placed at certain staggered levels on betfair as soon as the tournament starts. I also won't rule out making outright lays in-running on players I have not previously backed as and when I see there being sound value in doing so. I've never really properly tried and tested laying players at pre-tournament odds, so I will probably not be suggesting any such tips - for the time being anyway. But for what it's worth players who I think look seriously short priced this week are Garcia - I'd be looking for around 25/1 at least to back him - and Appleby, who I make around 50/1. Of course these two are previous winners of this event - and in my opinion their short prices are a huge over-reaction to this.

Update after round 2:

Still holding out some hope that we can pick up a place from the pre-tournament selections.
It seems almost unthinkable to oppose VJ in this position - he is simply formidable when in the lead, however I think his current odds of just over evens are about right. Stanley's halfway tip Sergio looks like the only real value at the bookies to me, but there is perhaps some at betfair..

Back Stewart Cink 0.75pts @ 46 at Betfair
Back Retief Goosen 0.5pts @ 65 at Betfair

Both quite speculative plays, but they are both players who have been known to put in strong finishes - for example Goosen most recently in the Tour Championship in November, and Cink at the Heritage last April. There is still half the tournament to go, so while VJ is a very likely winner, it is far too early to call the tournament over just yet!