Chrysler Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Mike Weir to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James and BlueSq
Weir has yet to rediscover the form that was in evidence for the first seven months of this season, but his class still stands out in this field and this is a generous price for this type of player. He may not have played this course before, as so many of this week's main contenders, but he can close out victory if in the hunt.

Retief Goosen to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BetDirect
Similar story here. This is simply too big a price for this type of player. He was at his most consistent early in the season, but still managed a win last month (Trophee Lancome) and was 8th in the American Express Championship earlier this month.

Fred Couples to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
Couples has at least played this course - he was 14th in 2000 - and this week is an outright selection after being passed over for the matchups instead last week. He had been 8th last week after three rounds but faltered on Sunday to finish 12th and lose two matchups narrowly. This week the field is certainly weaker and he should be in the frame again. The top-5 place market is the obvious choice for Freddie, but with 12/1 the best offerings (Paddy Power & SkyBet), there is not a lot to be lost from taking the 66/1 e.w. option and he might even surprise us all with a win again!

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Mike Weir to beat K.J. Choi -111 @ BetandWin and Victor Chandler [2 units]
Opposing the defending champion even though he had been in a great run of form before missing the cut last week. He finished a lowly 37th when defending in New Orleans earlier this year and can see a similar finish this week. Expecting a big week from Weir so adding two further plays on him, so if he gets burned this week then so do I!
(also available at Centrebet)

Mike Weir to beat John Huston -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [2 units]
Huston won the other Tampa Bay Classic to be held on this course and with a top-15 on his other visit, he certainly has good course form. But while he won the weak Southern Farm Bureau Classic earlier this month, he was poor last week and is not in the same league as a player as Weir.
(also available at Stan James)

Stewart Cink to beat Shigeki Maruyama -118 @ Expekt
Both in good form - Maruyama won two weeks ago and Cink was 2nd last week - but with top-25 finishes in his last four starts, Cink has been threatening to have a good tournament for a while. Maruyama really struggled last week and concedes course experience to his American opponent in this match.

Fred Couples to beat Steve Flesch -110 @ SkyBet
Just one statistic is enough here. Couples leads Flesch 13-0-0 h2h on the PGA Tour over the past year!
(also available at Victor Chandler)

Fred Couples to beat Chris Riley -110 @ BlueSq
Riley has been very inconsistent this year, which is disappointing as it looked as if he had made the decisive step up in class after winning last August. He has had four top-5 finishes, but also ten missed cuts. Couples is much more consistent at the moment and finished eight shots ahead of his opponent when they both last played here.

Final update:

Matchups: 2-0-0; +2.00 units

Weir/Choi WON by 5
Weir/Huston WON by 4
Cink/Maruyama VOID (Maruyama dns)
Couples/Flesch VOID (Couples dns)
Couples/Riley VOID (Couples dns)

Outrights: 1-1; +16.50 units

Weir 13th
Goosen 1st

Very profitable event even with Couples withdrawing to scupper three plays. Goosen always looked in command once he took the lead in the second round and though Vijay got close on Sunday, he couldn't keep with him on the final nine. No return on Weir for the outrights, but two wins in the matchups secured a profit. Brings the outrights on this Tour to over 100 units profit on the year!