Bob Hope Chrysler Classic

A later slot in the PGA Tour schedule, but still the same old pro-am format. This is the only event played on four different courses and alongside the Invensys Classic it shares the distinction of being the only 90-hole events. It shares with the Invensys, formerly the Las Vegas Invitational, the distinction of being the easiest of PGA Tour events. In the 1990s, 71% of rounds recorded at the Bob Hope were under par, and second was the Invensys Classic with 69%. We wouldn't want to embarrass those amateurs would we!

While none of the four courses will embarrass the amateurs, there is a big difference between the courses, in particular between the easiest, Indian Wells and the hardest two, La Quinta and Bermuda Dunes. Look out for 18-hole matchups across the two courses! The other course, Arnold Palmer's course, PGA West, will be used twice this year as it is the venue for the final round. It was the venue for Duval's 59 in 1999. In such events, it reduces down to putting contests as the par-fives tend to be reachable for everyone, so whoever putts best on the Bermuda greens this week will win.

The three outright picks for the Bob Hope are David Duval, John Huston and Fred Funk. Duval may have missed two cuts in a row and taken a week off, but in a field that is somewhat weaker than in previous years and is very much weaker than in the previous two weeks, he stands out from the crowd. The winner with a closing 59 in 1999, he has finished in the top-five in both 1998 and 2000 and in an event which requires low-scoring, then he has shown himself to be at his best on easier courses. Now he has reverted back to his Titleist irons and spent a week on the range, he may rediscover his touch and with the short stick, that touch has always been best on Bermuda greens. With double-digits the benchmark for an e/w play, then he appeals at that mark.

John Huston is definitely a player with a reputation for shooting low on easy courses. And his reputation in this event is just as inspiring. He has not finished below 30th in the last ten stagings [he has been an ever-present in that time], shooting an incredible 195-under-par during that time. He has finished in the top-10 four times in the last five years and comes off decent finishes in Hawaii. This is a targeted event for Huston and he should not disappoint.

Fred Funk is proof that length is not a prerequisite at the Bob Hope. He has finished 7th and 4th here in the last two years and already has two top-10s and two further top-30 finishes in his four starts on the PGA Tour this year. With a weakened field and a record of shooting low in this event, he could be a profitable place finisher. With all the e/w bets paid on the first five places, the plays are ...

Outright plays:

David Duval to win 10/1 e.w. @ Stanley  [no relation, honest!]

John Huston to win 22/1 e.w. @ Surrey or Victor Chandler

Fred Funk to win 50/1 e.w. @ Surrey

90-hole plays:

Paul Azinger to beat Rory Sabbatini -118 @ Easybets
Zinger has not been in the best of form since the Mercedes, but in a putting contest on Bermuda greens he is as good as they come. Sabbatini was 2nd last year, but has shown no form since finishing 2nd at the Sony Open

Glen Day to beat Frank Nobilo -120 @ Victor Chandler [2 units]
Two players in decent form, but Day is much the better putter and has the course record to prove it. Nobilo missed the cut last year in his only appearance for some time

Justin Leonard to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -118 @ Easybets
Rested after a couple of surprise missed cuts, Leonard returns to this course on which putting on the Bermuda greens will be very important. He should improve on last year's mid-table finish and beat Olazabal who has not played in this event before and is hitting too many irons off the tee to challenge the leaderboard

1st round update:

No 1st round plays - waiting to see if the cross-course differences were as large as in previous years and they are, only problem being that the books are now pairing players on the same course each day   The 90-hole plays stand 2-1-0 after 18 holes: Azinger trails Sabbatini by one, Day leads Nobilo by four and Leonard leads Olazabal by two. Not so promising in the outrights, Duval may be 9th, but both Huston and Funk are back in 49th position. Still a long way to go though!

2nd round plays:

Robert Allenby to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -105 @ Five Dimes

Jeff Maggert to beat Steve Flesch -110 @ Sportingbet

Dudley Hart to beat Steve Jones -130 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 0-2-1 and -2.40 units

Very close in all three matches, but left to rue chances that should have been converted. Allenby and Olazabal tied for a push, while Maggert and Hart closed their rounds with par-fives that are reachable in two and very birdiable. Maggert needed a par to win the matchup and dropped a shot; Hart needed a birdie to win the matchup and parred the hole

72-hole plays currently stand 2-1-0 with Azinger trailing Sabbatini by three, Day leading Nobilo by eight and Leonard leading Olazabal by two. Little move on the outrights, Duval is 10th, Funk is 43rd and Huston is 51st, though only Duval has yet to play Indian Wells by far the easiest course.

For the 3rd round plays, only the Starnet books offer matchups that feature players on different courses. Of note is Duval over Faxon with Duval playing Indian Wells and Faxon playing the hardest course, La Quinta. In the 1st round, Indian Wells was 1.4 shots easier than La Quinta and in yesterday it was 2.4 shots easier! Even accounting for different quality of player on each course, I get an average of 1 2/3 shots difference between them. 

3rd round plays:

David Duval to beat Brad Faxon -180 @ Sportfanatik [2 units] - available at most Starnet books

Dudley Hart to beat Fred Funk +105 @ Intertops

Brent Geiberger to beat Jeff Maggert +115 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]

Tom Pernice to beat Paul Stankowski +100 @ Moneyplays [3 units]

3rd round update: 1-2-1 and -1.70 units

Yesterday was truly unbelievable! First the good news: Geiberger beat Maggert by three shots at a good price. Then the surprising: the normally ice-cool Duval was very much the opposite yesterday and he could only manage 70 on a course in which the daily average score has been under 69 every day. He did at least manage a tie. Now the unbelievable: (i) Hart only had to beat 71 to beat Funk but was disqualified for having bent his putter and carrying on playing with it in modified form   (ii) Stankowski holed his fairway shot at the last to turn a probable one-shot defeat into a one-shot victory over Pernice

By the law of averages, then there must be the perfect sweep week just around the corner!!

Still the same position in the 72-hole plays: Azinger trails Sabbatini by four, but Day leads Nobilo by five, as does Leonard over Olazabal. After Duval's performance the outrights looks a write-off.

4th round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Glen Day -105 @ GoTo Casino  [can't get into Moneyplays at the moment]

Fred Funk to beat Stewart Cink +100 @ Carib

Brad Faxon to beat Fred Couples -125 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Billy Mayfair to beat Brent Geiberger -105 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]

Adding:

Jeff Maggert to beat Steve Flesch -110 @ Intertops

4th round update: 1-3-1 and -1.25 units

Won the 3-unit play as Faxon beat Couples by two, but edged out in the rest. Funk and Cink tie for a push, but Ames loses by two to Day and Mayfair and Maggert lose by a single shot, the latter despite shooting 65   One of the 72-hole plays is decided at the cut and it is a winner: Day beat Nobilo by four shots. In the other two, Azinger and Sabbatini are now tied, while Leonard leads Olazabal by three. No chance of any joy on the outrights this week.

5th round plays:

Rich Beem to beat David Morland -105 @ Five Dimes

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Kevin Sutherland -105 @ Moneyplays

Tom Pernice to beat Frank Lickliter -105 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Billy Mayfair to beat Scott McCarron -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Tom Pernice to beat Blaine McCallister -115 @ Five Dimes

David Toms to beat Scott McCarron -115 @ Olympic [3 units]

Shaun Micheel to beat Joe Ogilvie +100 @ Five Dimes

Final update: 3-2-2 and +2.95 units for the day; 8-9-5 and +1.60 units for the week

Small profit on the day as the only losses are the one-unit plays and a small profit on the week as the two remaining 72-hole plays complete a small sweep in that section. Today's results: Beem/Morland 5 down; Calcavecchia/Sutherland 5 up; Pernice/Lickliter all square; Mayfair/McCarron 2 up; Pernice/McCallister 5 up; Toms/McCarron all square; Micheel/Ogilvie 1 down. In the remaining 72-hole plays, Azinger beat Sabbatini by six and Leonard beat Olazabal by three.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Not even a sniff! Duval finished in 51st and Funk in 30th. Huston has already missed the cut. Roll on next week and a Thursday start, no amateurs and a tougher course!