Final update: 2-0-1 for the 4th round; 3-2 for 72-hole matchups; 7-8-1 and -2.21 units on the week  :-(

Wow! That a finish to the start of the season! Incredible eagles by Woods and Els to force playoff. Watching golf like that does soften the blow caused by Tiger's eagle putt denying us a clean sweep on the final day. It meant the Duval-Woods wager was pushed, but at least the other two came through to limit the damage on a shockingly bad week. Parnevik could be counted upon to self-destruct again ... and he did, and Day was always well ahead of Waldorf.

Convincing 72-hole wins for Day and Furyk wagers - fifteen and eight shots respectively - while Sluman made us sweat until a one-shot victory over Appleby was secured. Disappointing Sutton and Toms had poor weekends and lost their matchups by two and four shots respectively after looking very promising after Friday.

First week is always difficult to 'cap, but should have still done much better on 18-hole matchups. To be wiped out on two days out of four is rather embarrassing. Will take it out on da man next week!!!

Update: 0-3 for the 3rd round and 72-hole matchups looking less healthy  :-(

Three losses on the day but I hope I never go 0-3 again when my three players go 3-under-par, 4-under-par and 4-under-par! I really would feel jinxed it that happened again! Franco shot 70 to lose by three, Weir shot 69 to lose by one and Maggert shot 69 to lose by four. Geesh! Thing's only got worse on the open bets as well. Day now leads by eleven and Furyk by five, but Sluman now only leads Appleby by one, Sutton fell three behind Elkington and Toms is now seven behind Lawrie. Ugly week!

Time to make amends. Another three picks for the round. First up is Glen Day to beat Duffy Waldorf. Day was one of our 72-hole picks and is winning by the widest margin; we've already said why we like him this week. Currently in 11th position; he is well-placed for a top-10 finish in yet another high-quality field tournament. The prospect of a top-10 finish is usually a good spur for concentration on the final day, though Day is usually more focused than most on Sundays: he topped the 4th round scoring average on tour last year at 69.95. Duffy was a lowly 75th in those stats, but we also like to oppose him as someone who was up with the leaders very early in the tournament and has since slipped away.

The second pick is David Duval to beat Tiger Woods. Duval started real fast yesterday; he couldn't keep up the momentum on the back nine, but at only four shots out of the lead he is not out of the tournament. He is playing in front of Tiger and if he has the same start as yesterday, it could unsettle Tiger and Ernie as they are forced to watch the charge. Remember Tiger and Sergio on Sunday at the USPGA? The final group when tied on Sundays can usually become embroiled in a matchplay scenario and the quality of golf is usually not that great. Even if Duval doesn't win, he should post a serious challenge today.

Finally, another of our more successful 72-hole picks, Jim Furyk, is predicted to save the bank today as well. He is having as solid a tournament as predicted, currently lying in 5th place eight shots off the pace. That should be too much for Furyk, but Furyk is a top-10 finish specialist; his 'comfort zone' as I have described him before. Parnevik is much more volatile and as with Waldorf is worth opposing as an early leader now out of the tournament. Last year he finished a lowly 141st in the 4th round scoring averages.

Staking plan:

Glen Day to beat Duffy Waldorf @ -110 with Moneyplays

David Duval to beat Tiger Woods @ +100 with Moneyplays

Jim Furyk to Jesper Parnevik @ -110 with Moneyplays or Five Dimes

Update: 2-1 for the 2nd round and 72-hole matchups still look healthy.

In all fairness, got a bit lucky yesterday. Duval's problems with the putter not only continued but worsened and it showed in his frustration on the back nine. Fortunately, Jesper's attacking game plan continued and he once again had two double bogeys on the back nine to give us the win by one. Toms also only won by one shot, but at least he was always ahead of Pernice. A dropped shot on 17 by Toms meant a nervous last hole for us, but we deserved some luck after yesterday. Furyk lost out by three though his level par round was still a good effort on another windy day. Els continued his steady golf, par or better on 35 of 36 holes so far, and yesterday he began to sink some putts.

The 72-hole matchups look firmer. Furyk and Day lead by seven and Sluman leads by five. In the other two, Sutton is now tied with Elkington and Toms has fallen a shot behind Lawrie.

Again there are three picks for the third round. Carlos Franco over Vijay Singh is the first. Singh collapsed spectacularly yesterday, dropping three shots in the last five holes. Renowned for his lack of weekend motivation when out of a tournament, we expect him to fall back from his joint 15th position today. We backed Franco in the first round and lost, but apart from that horrid stretch from the eight when he had three double bogeys he has been two under par and more in line with what we predicted for him at the start of the week. They should move in opposite directions today ... and that isn't just because they're wayward drivers!

Lawrie continues to impress those who had never heard of him before the British Open; he is managing to run with the big boys, but he's starting to gasp for breath. We'll oppose him in favour of Mike Weir today. Lawrie continued to play solid golf in these tournaments with impressive fields, but has never looked like winning again. A solid level-par 73 was a good effort yesterday but he's still 12 shots off the lead and after a very busy off-season, it'll be just another cheque. For Weir though, it is the start of a new season rather than a continuation of the last one and he should be fresher and more able to make a charge up the field. Weir was ranked just 13th in 3rd round scores last year on Tour. Can't win, but will be much more capable of a good score today.

The final one is Jeff Maggert to beat Tom Pernice jnr. Maggert made a disastrous start to the tournament: six over par after seven holes, which means that he has played the last 29 holes in level par; a score good enough to have earned him eighth place. That is not the sign of a man out of form. Can't see any reason why such an effort to gain a respectable finish should be wasted today. Yet again we go against Pernice. Out of his depth in this field. Enough said.

Staking plan:

Carlos Franco to beat Vijay Singh @ +138 with Stan James

Mike Weir to beat Paul Lawrie @ +125 [+123 after 2% tax on stake] with Totalbet

Jeff Maggert to beat Tom Pernice jnr @ -125 with Stan James or William Hill

Update: 0-2 for the 1st round, but 72-hole matchups look healthy

Yikes! A wipeout on the first day of the PGA Tour season. :-(  Only myself to blame, I did write 'provided the winds don't pick up too much' about Franco and well, the winds were stronger than originally forecast. I didn't recheck the weather forecast before they teed off. Franco blew up with three double bogeys from the eighth - he had been 2-under par - and trailed Appleby by five at the end of the day. The Toms loss was a bitter one. Not just because we lost the wager as it was a tie, but because the official scorecards had Toms down for a birdie on the 12th so it looked as if he had won by one ... until about half an hour after they had finished their rounds.

In the others, Sluman, Day and Toms all lead their opponents by one, Sutton trails Elkington by one and Furyk leads Maggert by eight. So things are not looking that bleak, but could do with a better day today.

I've already posted a play on Duval to beat Parnevik. Surprisingly the line is still at -105 on Duval. Parnevik did well to respond in the way that he did after successive double bogeys on the back nine when leading, but the pressure of being leader will inhibit his game today. Duval's game is looking very strong and he importantly closed out with two birdies on 17 and 18 yesterday. Look for the momentum to continue today.

The two other round 2 picks are Jim Furyk over Ernie Els and David Toms over Tom Pernice jnr. Furyk was fortunate to tee off first yesterday; there was little difference in the weather conditions between the tee times, but there were no distractions ahead of him. As explained in the first write-up, Furyk should do well this week as he did last year. The high performance by Els was a little bit of a surprise after a disappointing season and on the Bermuda greens, his lesser favored surface. But he only had two birdies all day and neither of them were on the par-fives. A very strange round without bogeys. Will be hard to repeat that and will need to sink more putts if he is continue his challenge.

The final one is a revenge matchup. Feeling hard done by with Toms' loss yesterday, everything I wrote then still holds today. I really can't see Pernice figuring this week. He did start strongly and was one under par after the first nine, only to fall away on the second half. He made a birdie on 18th to deny us the win but surely Toms to take care of him today ...

Staking plan:

David Duval to beat Jesper Parnevik @ -105 with Goto Sportsbook

Jim Furyk to beat Ernie Els @ +100 available with either Goto Sportsbook or Moneyplays Casino

David Toms to beat Tom Pernice jnr @ -125 available with either Stan James or Sportingbet

Before we look back at yesterday's round and post the plays for today, going to make an emergency play. Duval to beat Parnevik @ -105 with GoTo Sportsbook. Can only see this line changing in the very near future, so get on it quick. Back soon with more.

The season begins aproper this week with the Mercedes Championship, a tournament open only to the winners on last year's PGA Tour and of the British Open. Despite the early season, the quality of golf should be worthy of a season curtain-raiser. It is rather debatable whether the course itself, the Plantation course of the Kapalua Resort in Maui, Hawaii, is of the same standard. It is built on the side of a mountain, is exposed to the winds off the Pacific Ocean and the greens are as grainy as the players will encounter all year. To compound matters further, the slope, the easterly winds and the grain all go in the same direction! The winds are forecast to be 'fresh' until Sunday.

The course is fairly long at 7,263 yards, but it has wide-open fairways and is a par-73, the only one used on the PGA Tour last year. So accuracy is not as important this week as elsewhere and given the extreme slopes, not just on the fairways but on the greens, extra length and the ability to hit shorter irons into the greens will be important. The greens are Tifdwarf Bermudagrass which will favour players like Hal Sutton and not players like Stuart Appleby. The greens are also noteworthy in that they are extremely large.

The first pick is then to oppose Stuart Appleby. Not simply because of his aversion to Bermuda greens and the importance of putting this week given their size, but also because of his inactivity over the past few months. Just one tournament in the past two months, the Australian Open where he finished 16th in a low-quality field. From  the choice of opponents, Jeff Sluman looks tempting especially for value. He has been a little more active, finishing 6th in the JC Penney a month ago, but his main appeal is his ability to play in the winds of Hawaii. He won the Sony Open last year when winds were more on a par with what should occur this week.

The next is Glenn Day to beat Loren Roberts. "All" Day is a solid 'tricky conditions' competitor and should continue his record of performing well in prestigious events. He doesn't win, okay he's had one win and that's why he's playing this week, but he can be relied upon to keep playing strongly into the weekend when others give up and lose their matchups. He had the lowest 4th-round average score on the PGA Tour last year. I wrote Roberts off once last season as a relatively poor putter on Bermuda greens. He proved me wrong that week, but I don't think he'll do it again. The greens are too grainy for his putter and the 'Boss of the Moss' crown is starting to wobble...

The next is Hal Sutton to beat Steve Elkington. I mentioned earlier that he is a good Bermuda greens player, that is compensated somewhat by the openness of the course. It negates his primary strength, accuracy off the tee. But Elkington is similarly a tight-course specialist and is similarly comfortable in the wind. The deciding factors between these two, apart from the Bermuda greens, are the facts that Sutton played at the Williwms World Challenge last week so he is not coming into this event cold and Elkington's perennial illnesses and allergies. At this time of the year, Elkington might be caught in the blocks.

The next is Jim Furyk to beat Jeff Maggert. Furyk has a good record in the wind and was 9th last year, having never been out of the top-10 all week. His victories in Las Vegas show that his short length off the tee is not as prohibitive as many think and he should do very well again this week. Was impressive at the Sun City until the final round. Maggert has only played his two games in the Diners Club matches over the past two months. Shouldn't be fresh and largely has suffered a minor hangover fromwinning the WGC matchplay. Another short hitter, but much less capable of winning.

The final 72-hole pick is David Toms to beat Paul Lawrie. Toms was second at the 1997 Kapalua Invitational at this course to Davis Love, so on a course that many will grumble about, he has good memories of it and that should help. He does play well on open courses and his form before the winter recess was excellent: two wins, a 2nd place and a host of finishes just outside the top-10. I questioned why Paul Lawrie was playing last week other than for money. This year he's concentrating more on the PGA Tour and again 'money?' is a question I raise. There is a danger he will chase the British Open pot of gold so much that he has a season like Mark O'Meara. Worth opposing just every time right now.

The are two picks for the 1st round alone: Carlos Franco to beat Stuart Appleby and David Toms to beat Tom Pernice jnr. I've already stated that I think Appleby will struggle this week. Franco is an ideal early-season player - he doesn't practise and he doesn't need to! Provided the winds don't pick up too much he should have a good week and dispose of Appleby along the way.

I have also written why Toms should do well this week. Can't see any reason why Pernice should do so. Closed out the last season with three straight missed cuts and a 69th place before that. It may be a new season but that kind of form will be disastrous in a tournament of champions. Toms a solid pick, despite the odds for a 'short course' event.

Staking plan:

Jeff Sluman to beat Stuart Appleby @ +120 with GoTo

Glenn Day to beat Loren Roberts @ -110 with Five Dimes

Hal Sutton to beat Steve Elkington @ -140 with Five Dimes

Jim Furyk to beat Jeff Maggert @ -145 with Five Dimes

David Toms to beat Paul Lawrie @ -138 with Sportingbet

Carlos Franco to beat Stuart Appleby [1st round] @ +100 with Stan James

David Toms to beat Tom Pernice jnr [1st round] @ -138 with Stan James and Sportingbet