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A year ago, this event had to be delayed by two days after the German government put the UK on its travel ‘red list’ so it started on the Saturday and was completed on the Monday after 54 holes. Having been cancelled completely in 2020, it is a useful reminder of how much has changed. Now we have huge delays and cancellations at airports as the demand for international travel far outstrips the ability of airports and airlines to meet it. With Porsche as the tournament sponsor, this event had attracted many Americans since the current venue was first used in 2017. Patrick Reed finished in the top-20 that year and returned the following year with Bryson Dechambeau and both finished in the top-15. In 2019, the list of American PGA Tour regulars grew with Reed joined by Xander Schauffele and Matt Kuchar. In terms of North Americans, only Abraham Ancer played last year. None have done so this year and Tommy Fleetwood heads the market by some distance. The European Open returned to the European Tour in 2015 and, after being hosted at Bad Griesbach for two years, it moved to Green Eagle Golf Courses in 2017, which is a collection of 42 holes spread across 3 courses. This event is played on the North course which is a big, American-style parkland course with a maximum yardage of 7,836 yards. There are four teeing areas on each of the holes, so there is considerable scope for varying the length according to the players and the weather and it is expected to play at 7,475 yards in official yardage, but will probably vary considerably from day to day. The length derives primarily from the five par-5s with four registering over 590 yards and the 16th hole being played at 663 yards this week, over 40 yards shorter than last year. Given that there are three par-5s in the last four holes, it should be a venue for high drama on Sunday. That said, water features on every hole bar one to continue the American-style look to the course and that ensures that this is not simply a paradise for the big hitters. In fact, as will be shown below, big hitters tend not to feature on the leaderboard here and conditions are wet, and they are not forecast to be this week. This is a tricky course and much less open last week’s venue. The greens are large and undulating and generally rather quick. In total, there have been four DP World Tour events played here (2017-2021) with the event cancelled in 2020 and last year’s event re-formatted, three Nordic Golf League events (2016-2019) and one Challenge Tour event (2010). That isn’t a lot of course history, particularly with the recent disruption, but there are some clear trends to be drawn from these events. As such, here are three angles to identify players who should contend. Angles to consider: 1. Tee-to-green game is important at Green Eagle Given the course yardage and the number of par-5s, it would be easy to say that this course favours long hitters. That was the case in the wet conditions in 2017, but not in any of the subsequent years with only one player finishing in the top-10 in those three years and ranking inside the top-10 for driving distance that week. Despite the length of the course, it is not clear that length off the tee is any advantage here unless the conditions are wet. What is clear is that the winner in each of the three years has been highly-ranked across the ball control and tee-to-green statistics. Richard McEvoy won in 2018 and ranked 6th for driving accuracy and 8th for greens in regulation; Paul Casey won in 2019 and ranked 2nd for greens in regulation and 8th for driving accuracy; and while Marcus Armitage won last year and ranked 11th for strokes gained: approach the green, runners-up Edoardo Molinari ranked 1st for driving accuracy, greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach the green and Matthew Southgate ranked 2nd for each of those three categories. 2. Course form should be important After the first event was played here in 2017, the winner in 2018, Richard McEvoy, had competed the previous year on this course and had been the first round leader. In 2019, Paul Casey won the event having finished 7th the previous year, while Matthias Schwab finished 2nd having also finished 7th the previous year. And in last year’s disrupted event, Casey finished 6th as the defending champion. 3. Form carries well in this event In short, five of the six European Opens in Germany have been won by a player who had finished in the top-10 in their last start. Last year, Marcus Armitage had finished 8th in the Made in Himmerland event the previous week; in 2019, Paul Casey had finished 3rd in the PGA Tour’s Tour Championship two weeks prior; in 2018, Richard McEvoy had won Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge on the Challenge Tour the previous week; in 2017, Jordan Smith is an exception but had finished in the top-20 three weeks beforehand; in 2016 Alexander Levy had finished 7th in the Italian Open the previous week; while in 2015, Thongchai Jaidee had finished 5th two weeks prior in his own event, the Thongchai Jaidee Foundation. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Edoardo Molinari
The newly-announced Ryder Cup vice-captain comes into the event in good form, finishing in the top-10 in both the Catalunya Championship and the Soudal Open in the last four weeks. This should put him in good stead to contend again on this course. As highlighted above, he led the field in the key stats last year when finishing runner-up to Marcus Armitage and he has maintained his strength in those key aspects of the game this season. He ranks inside the top-15 on the DP World Tour for strokes gained: approach the green, strokes gained: tee-to-green and greens in regulation. Mikko Korhonen
Korhonen is a very similar type of player, ranking inside the top-25 on the DP World Tour for strokes gained: approach the green, strokes gained: tee-to-green and greens in regulation. He also ranks 2nd on Tour for driving accuracy and this has been shown to be far more important than driving distance here. He has finished in the top-15 in three of his last four events, including last week’s Dutch Open and finished 7th here last year. Wil Besseling
Besseling is a slightly different type of player as he is ranks much higher for driving distance than driving accuracy (14th vs 131st), but this is not a crucial part of the game on this course. In terms of the key stats, he topped the DP World Tour’s rankings for greens in regulation in 2020 and has been ranked inside the top-30 in each of the last two years as well. When finishing in the top-25 in the Soudal Open two weeks ago, he ranked 3rd for greens in regulation and when he finished 18th here last year, he ranked inside the top-5 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation that week. Tips 2-1; +23.50pts 1pt e.w. Edoardo Molinari 66/1 (10Bet, Sport Nation 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 5th 1pt e.w. Mikko Korhonen 50/1 (10Bet, Sport Nation 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 40th 1pt e.w. Wil Besseling 100/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 2nd
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