|
After the false start in South Africa, the 2022 Race to Dubai starts in earnest this week with a stellar field that is befitting of this Tour relaunch. There are more players in the World top-10 playing here than on the PGA Tour. That the 2022 events start in the UAE and the season ends in the UAE is a symmetry that works. It also focuses on where the money comes from for this (even more) globe-trotting Tour. As well as a new Tour, we also have a new venue with Yas Links hosting the event. It takes over from Abu Dhabi Golf Club who had hosted the event since its inception in 2006. Yas Links is located on Yas Island, which is a leisure and entertainment destination. The course was designed by Kyle Philips and opened in 2010. Given its location, it could easily have been a resort course designed for the island’s tourist trade, but instead it was built to championship standards and ranks inside the top-50 in Golf Digest’s global top 100 courses. Philips has designed a number of other courses that have been used on the European Tour: Kingsbarns (Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation), The Grove (2016 British Masters and 2006 American Express Championship), Dundonald Links (2017 Scottish Open), PGA Sweden National (2014-15 Nordea Masters), Bernardus (2021 Dutch Open) and Verdura (2011-2018 Sicily Open). Based on the shoreline, Yas Links has a links feel and look to it. The sand was dredged to create dunes and, by all accounts, it will certainly play like a links course. Given that wind is usually factor in this area, that should add to the links experience. At over 7,400 yards in length, it is much longer than traditional links courses which rely on natural defences such as the weather and so can lead to very low scoring when conditions are calm. With the current weather forecast, such low scoring is not expected this week. Given that there is no previous European Tour form on this course and the fact that most players haven’t competed on Tour for over a month, there should naturally been some caution with staking this week. However, the following angles have been identified that should help. Angles to consider: 1. Tee times matter on links courses This preview has been delayed for good reason: to follow the increased accuracy of weather forecasts as we approach the tournament. At the start of the week, it was forecast that high winds would arrive on Friday. The forecast is for these to rise throughout Friday, reaching a peak of 30mph by 3pm on Friday. The forecast for Thursday is a similar trajectory throughout the day, but reaching a peak of only 15mph by 3pm. Calm conditions will return at the weekend. From this, it is clear that it would be far better to have a late Thursday and early Friday tee-time. The only problem, apart from incorrect forecasts, could be that play in halted on Friday afternoon and so that group of players may reconvene in the calmer conditions on Saturday morning. It is more likely that they would reconvene later on Friday when the winds calm, but the greens would then have been hardened by the wind. 2. Kyle Philips courses In the absence of any Tour events on this course, apart from the 2016-2019 Abu Dhabi Open on the MENA Tour, it is instructive to look at how players have performed on other courses designed by Philips. At least there are a number of his courses that have been used (outlined above) even if none have been used extensively on the European Tour apart from Kingsbarns. This course has been likened to Kingsbarns, but that is the one course that I would downplay in this angle. There is a stark difference between playing a course in temperatures in the 70s and playing a course in temperatures in the 40s in October in Scotland. 3. Previous form in the region This is a common angle for events in this region and in this event in particular, with three players winning seven of the 15 previous editions of this event. That can even extend to familiarity with desert golf. In last year’s Abu Dhabi Championship, only one player in the top-24 (Antoine Rozner) was making his debut in this event and had just won the Golf in Dubai Championship the previous month so had already had impressive form in the UAE. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Ian Poulter
Poulter is a player who is under-valued when on the European Tour. Admittedly, he hasn’t won since the 2018 Houston Open, but he has finished inside the top-6 in four of his last ten European Tour starts including the DP World Tour Championship in the UAE in November. That was one of three top-6 finishes that he has recorded in the UAE in the last three years, plus another top-6 finish in the Saudi International. In terms of Kyle Philips courses, he has only played in two on the European Tour as he has focused more on the PGA Tour, but in those two events, he finished 2nd in the 2006 American Express Championship and 9th in the 2017 Scottish Open. Like the other selections, he has a Thursday afternoon tee time. Erik Van Rooyen
Van Rooyen is another who focuses on the PGA Tour, with his only appearance on this Tour last year being the Open Championship. In his previous European Tour before that, he finished in the top-15 in the 2020 DP World Tour Championship in the UAE as he did in this event that year, while the previous year he finished 2nd in the Qatar Masters so he does have good form in this region. He clearly has a desire to play this week as he has been competing in Hawaii for the last two weeks, finishing in the top-25 both times, so he is in good form, and is competing at a very high standard given his win in the Barracuda Championship and very strong performance in the PGA Tour Playoffs. Matthias Schwab
Another player with PGA Tour membership, courtesy of his top-50 ranking on the 2020-21 Korn Ferry Tour. He closed 2021 with some strong performances on that Tour to continue the good form that he showed on the European Tour – he ranked 11th in scoring average, 5th in strokes gained: total and 3rd in strokes gained: tee-to-green last year. Like Van Rooyen, it has been a rapid rise from the Challenge Tour in 2017 to the PGA Tour, built on a very solid game. He recorded a top-10 finish in the Dubai Desert Classic last year and, in terms of Kyle Philips’s courses, he recorded a top-20 finish in the 2018 Sicilian Open in his rookie season and finished inside the top-10 in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship later that season. Tips 1-2 +1.50pts 1pt e.w. Ian Poulter 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 6th 1pt e.w. Erik Van Rooyen 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 12th 1pt e.w. Matthias Schwab 90/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc
|
